Stayers Hurdle 2018

[Quevega]

I have to concede I'm left baffled by the enthusiasm for Penhill - I couldn't be backing a horse who hasn't run for almost a year making a reappearance at Cheltenham

The trainer has done it before though, and he practically won a champion hurdle doing similar (unless you think annie power had a race, or a canter round at punchestown).

[opatcho]

I have to concede I'm left baffled by the enthusiasm for Penhill - I couldn't be backing a horse who hasn't run for almost a year making a reappearance at Cheltenham

More than happy to let penhill go off without backing it, can’t have it
AB winners/runners have terrible form in this race. No winners. Last years ‘Sure thing’, UNWIMH, couldnt smash that trend and I can’t gave a horse coming back from a year off winning

[cpfcpatriot]

I'm going to throw a bit of Willie Mullins Bingo into this.

What's the chances that Faugheen gets nudged in this direction with Ruby wanting to potentially ride Yorkhill in the CH? It'd be a big step down from fighting with Buveur D'Air, and he could potentially stay as well as having the likely class edge.

12/1 NRNB with b365, and it would only be tying a little bit of money up until Sunday when the Tuesday decs come out.

Tempting.

[ryanh97]

I'm going to throw a bit of Willie Mullins Bingo into this.

What's the chances that Faugheen gets nudged in this direction with Ruby wanting to potentially ride Yorkhill in the CH? It'd be a big step down from fighting with Buveur D'Air, and he could potentially stay as well as having the likely class edge.

12/1 NRNB with b365, and it would only be tying a little bit of money up until Sunday when the Tuesday decs come out.

Tempting.

I'd backed him last year for this race and can certainly see the case youre making

[James Joseph]

Kev in Sam we trust. Everything points to him as the improver. He's young and will love the going. Far less question marks about him compared to others at the top of the market. 5/1 is massive - time to believe our eyes and lump on!

[Kevloaf]

Kev in Sam we trust. Everything points to him as the improver. He's young and will love the going. Far less question marks about him compared to others at the top of the market. 5/1 is massive - time to believe our eyes and lump on!

As you (everyone) will see, I've got a book for this race, rather than just one or two darts.... so I cna't be part of the Sam Spinner 'till I die fanclub... as at the moment, if I am wrong I still get paid...

but this weekend I'll be looking at who I think will win each race and who is the best value right now. For this race, before I have my final look, I do think Sam Spinner is good value at 5/1. Just because L'ami Serge and Penhill are bigger prices, doesn't make either of them value in my opinion.

Penhill you're taking a chance on at a price, stranger things have happened

Lami you're throwing your win bet away....

[loveracing]

Lami you're throwing your win bet away....

I thought I heard a couple days ago Lami was out?

[Kevloaf]

I thought I heard a couple days ago Lami was out?

Not seen that LR?

I hope he isn't .... I want him to fail to win the Stayers Hurdle!

[loveracing]

Not seen that LR?

I hope he isn't .... I want him to fail to win the Stayers Hurdle!

Wasn't online Kev, was from the same source and time as Waiting Patiently, I think Thursday I was told.

[Robbante]

L’ami Serge was kept in the Ryanair yesterday, and Henderson gave him a word in his unibet blog. No indication there’s any issues

[Faugheen_Machine]

Wasn't online Kev, was from the same source and time as Waiting Patiently, I think Thursday I was told.

I'm guessing they got confused with Top Notch

[Kevloaf]

Is L'ami Serge the new Thistlecrack?

I think we can all agree that Thistlecrack looked visually stunning when winning his Stayers Hurdle... and the RP comments back that up.... but EVERY OTHER HORSE in recent memory has had to dig deep, stay on strongest...

2017 - Nichols Canyon - "Held up, good headway between last 2, close up disputing 2nd last, led run-in, stayed on strongly and in command towards finish"
2016 - Thistlecrack - "Midfield, headway approaching 7th, went 2nd before 3 out, led on bit just before 2 out, always travelling strongly, effortlessly went clear run-in, impressive"
2015 - Cole Harden - "Jumped slightly left at times, made all, clear 5th, hit 7th and next where reduced advantage, ridden 3 lengths clear again approaching last, stayed on strongly "
2014 - More of That - "Held up, headway approaching 2 out, soon tracked leaders, disputed lead before last where took narrow advantage, ridden run-in, stayed on well and in command final 75yds"
2013 - Solwhit - "Held up in rear, steady headway approaching 2 out, chased leader before last, led soon after, driven out"
2012 - Big Bucks - "Tracked leaders, went 2nd 9th, narrow lead after 3 out, urged along and quickened after 2 out, hung left before last where pressed, drifted right flat but stayed on mightily "
2011 - Big Bucks - "Tracked leaders, went 2nd 8th, ridden to lead between last 2, rider dropped whip, jumped left last, hung left run-in when pressed, pulled out more final 100yds and well on top at finish"
2010 - Big Bucks - "Held up in midfield, headway 9th, travelled smoothly on bit to move upsides between last 2, not fluent last, shaken up to lead run-in, asserted final"
2009 - Big Bucks - "Midfield, hit 7th, headway approaching 2 out, went 2nd between last 2, upsides when mistake last, rallied to lead 150yds out, edged left and stayed on gamely towards finish"
2008 - Inglis Drever - "Held up, headway when not clear run briefly after 4 out, ran on to challenge and switched right approaching last, led run-in, stuck on gamely"
2007 - Inglis Drever - "Towards rear, hit 4th, mistake 7th, ridden and headway from 3 out, challenged 2 out, led soon after, stayed on gamely under pressure run-in, all out "

Every single winner, bar Thistlecrack, has stayed on strongly... let's delve in to L'ami Serge's comments...

27.1.18 - 3rd in handicap chase - "Held up, mistake 2nd and rider briefly lost iron, still plenty to do 5 out, headway 4 out, ridden before last, kept on and not much room towards finish "
Kept on, didn't get the job done?

23.12.17 - 2nd in Long Walk Hurdle - "Held up in last pair, good progress from 3 out to track winner after 2 out, ridden after last, limited response and no impression flat"
Staggeringly worrying comment in terms of a Stayers hurdle

25.11.17 - 2nd in Coral Hurdle - "Took keen hold, held up in last, coaxed along to close from 3 out, ridden to chase winner last and close enough, found little flat and always held"
Staggeringly worrying comment in terms of a Stayers hurdle

11.6.17 - 1st in G1 France - "Waited with in rear, last and went badly left 3 out, steady headway on inner to chase leader 2 out, driven to close before last, led final 130yds, readily "
Had this won without needing to be ridden out

20.5.17 - 2nd in G2 France - "Held up in final pair, closed into midfield halfway, tracked front pair 3 out, virtually upsides leader last, ridden and led run-in, kept on under pressure, headed close home"
Out battled with every chance

29.4.17 - 1st G2 Sandown - "Took keen hold, held up in last, pulled way through to press leader 8th, still tanking along when jumped left 2 out but soon led, ridden out from last "
Had this won before the last - not needed to battle

22.4.17 - 5th Scottish CH - "Held up, steady headway before 2 out, ridden between last 2, kept on run-in, never able to challenge "
Kept on - didn't get the job done

17.3.17 - County Hurdle - "Mid-division, not clear run briefly turning in, soon switched left and headway, ran on well from last, went 2nd final 50yds, closing on winner at finish"
Seems positive, but this was over 2 miles... a far cry from 3

26.2.17 - 3rd at Fontwell - "Held up, went 4th after 6th, 3rd after next, never threatened to get on terms with winner, ridden after 3 out, weakened between last 2, tailed off, lost shoe "
Forgivable depending on when he lost a shoe

21.1.17 - 3rd in CH trial - "Held up, tracking leaders before 5th, challenged on inner approaching last, ridden run-in and no response, unable to go with front 2 final 100yds, lost shoe "
FLinging his shoes around again, forgivable. Also 1m7f race

1.1.17 - 2nd in Relkeel - "Held up, headway after 2 out, chased winner before last, led flat, soon ridden, headed near finish"
Outbattled, again he hasn't got his head in front in a battle.

15.12.16 - 2nd in 3 runner chase at Exeter - "Jumped left throughout, led after 2nd, joined 6th, ridden after 4 out, headed 2 out, kept on but soon held "
Held by Le Prezien over 2m1f.




So, L'ami Serge backers..... 12/1? ..... he must be as talented as Thistlecrack for you to honestly believe with all of that form evidence and comments on his races that he is going to win the Stayers Hurdle?

He can NOT WIN - so it is NOT A GOOD BET, WIN OR EACH WAY

**this is going in the Thursday thread... I can't let it go

[Faugheen_Machine]

Is L'ami Serge the new Thistlecrack?

I think we can all agree that Thistlecrack looked visually stunning when winning his Stayers Hurdle... and the RP comments back that up.... but EVERY OTHER HORSE in recent memory has had to dig deep, stay on strongest...

2017 - Nichols Canyon - "Held up, good headway between last 2, close up disputing 2nd last, led run-in, stayed on strongly and in command towards finish"
2016 - Thistlecrack - "Midfield, headway approaching 7th, went 2nd before 3 out, led on bit just before 2 out, always travelling strongly, effortlessly went clear run-in, impressive"
2015 - Cole Harden - "Jumped slightly left at times, made all, clear 5th, hit 7th and next where reduced advantage, ridden 3 lengths clear again approaching last, stayed on strongly "
2014 - More of That - "Held up, headway approaching 2 out, soon tracked leaders, disputed lead before last where took narrow advantage, ridden run-in, stayed on well and in command final 75yds"
2013 - Solwhit - "Held up in rear, steady headway approaching 2 out, chased leader before last, led soon after, driven out"
2012 - Big Bucks - "Tracked leaders, went 2nd 9th, narrow lead after 3 out, urged along and quickened after 2 out, hung left before last where pressed, drifted right flat but stayed on mightily "
2011 - Big Bucks - "Tracked leaders, went 2nd 8th, ridden to lead between last 2, rider dropped whip, jumped left last, hung left run-in when pressed, pulled out more final 100yds and well on top at finish"
2010 - Big Bucks - "Held up in midfield, headway 9th, travelled smoothly on bit to move upsides between last 2, not fluent last, shaken up to lead run-in, asserted final"
2009 - Big Bucks - "Midfield, hit 7th, headway approaching 2 out, went 2nd between last 2, upsides when mistake last, rallied to lead 150yds out, edged left and stayed on gamely towards finish"
2008 - Inglis Drever - "Held up, headway when not clear run briefly after 4 out, ran on to challenge and switched right approaching last, led run-in, stuck on gamely"
2007 - Inglis Drever - "Towards rear, hit 4th, mistake 7th, ridden and headway from 3 out, challenged 2 out, led soon after, stayed on gamely under pressure run-in, all out "

Every single winner, bar Thistlecrack, has stayed on strongly... let's delve in to L'ami Serge's comments...

27.1.18 - 3rd in handicap chase - "Held up, mistake 2nd and rider briefly lost iron, still plenty to do 5 out, headway 4 out, ridden before last, kept on and not much room towards finish "
Kept on, didn't get the job done?

23.12.17 - 2nd in Long Walk Hurdle - "Held up in last pair, good progress from 3 out to track winner after 2 out, ridden after last, limited response and no impression flat"
Staggeringly worrying comment in terms of a Stayers hurdle

25.11.17 - 2nd in Coral Hurdle - "Took keen hold, held up in last, coaxed along to close from 3 out, ridden to chase winner last and close enough, found little flat and always held"
Staggeringly worrying comment in terms of a Stayers hurdle

11.6.17 - 1st in G1 France - "Waited with in rear, last and went badly left 3 out, steady headway on inner to chase leader 2 out, driven to close before last, led final 130yds, readily "
Had this won without needing to be ridden out

20.5.17 - 2nd in G2 France - "Held up in final pair, closed into midfield halfway, tracked front pair 3 out, virtually upsides leader last, ridden and led run-in, kept on under pressure, headed close home"
Out battled with every chance

29.4.17 - 1st G2 Sandown - "Took keen hold, held up in last, pulled way through to press leader 8th, still tanking along when jumped left 2 out but soon led, ridden out from last "
Had this won before the last - not needed to battle

22.4.17 - 5th Scottish CH - "Held up, steady headway before 2 out, ridden between last 2, kept on run-in, never able to challenge "
Kept on - didn't get the job done

17.3.17 - County Hurdle - "Mid-division, not clear run briefly turning in, soon switched left and headway, ran on well from last, went 2nd final 50yds, closing on winner at finish"
Seems positive, but this was over 2 miles... a far cry from 3

26.2.17 - 3rd at Fontwell - "Held up, went 4th after 6th, 3rd after next, never threatened to get on terms with winner, ridden after 3 out, weakened between last 2, tailed off, lost shoe "
Forgivable depending on when he lost a shoe

21.1.17 - 3rd in CH trial - "Held up, tracking leaders before 5th, challenged on inner approaching last, ridden run-in and no response, unable to go with front 2 final 100yds, lost shoe "
FLinging his shoes around again, forgivable. Also 1m7f race

1.1.17 - 2nd in Relkeel - "Held up, headway after 2 out, chased winner before last, led flat, soon ridden, headed near finish"
Outbattled, again he hasn't got his head in front in a battle.

15.12.16 - 2nd in 3 runner chase at Exeter - "Jumped left throughout, led after 2nd, joined 6th, ridden after 4 out, headed 2 out, kept on but soon held "
Held by Le Prezien over 2m1f.




So, L'ami Serge backers..... 12/1? ..... he must be as talented as Thistlecrack for you to honestly believe with all of that form evidence and comments on his races that he is going to win the Stayers Hurdle?

He can NOT WIN - so it is NOT A GOOD BET, WIN OR EACH WAY

**this is going in the Thursday thread... I can't let it go

Love it Kev

12/1 is far too short for me. He's a solid horse but I can't see a way that he wins the Stayers

[Kevloaf]

Love it Kev

12/1 is far too short for me. He's a solid horse but I can't see a way that he wins the Stayers

I suppose if he ends up getting picked in the Thursday yankee, it'll be one of the ones that I'd get well paid for being wrong

[Sirbetalot]

I like L'ami Serge and I totally understand the positives & negatives, I can see it getting placed & winning is not a million miles out of the question.

If we all had the same opinion on every race there would be no bookies nor exchanges.

You pays your money you takes your chance...

Gl all what every you fancy for this...