Stayers Hurdle 2018

[Kevloaf]

The French Champion Hurdle is in June I think so plenty of space to target both races.

Yeah it isnt that he couldn't take in both, it is just him saying the latter being 'the target' and that being a weaker race, that they aren't aiming as high as I'd like for a 20/1 shot.

[JackieMoon33]

Yeah it isnt that he couldn't take in both, it is just him saying the latter being 'the target' and that being a weaker race, that they aren't aiming as high as I'd like for a 20/1 shot.

True, chance of retaining the French races are better than beating Nichols and Harry

[Scooby91]

Yeah it isnt that he couldn't take in both, it is just him saying the latter being 'the target' and that being a weaker race, that they aren't aiming as high as I'd like for a 20/1 shot.

It's a big pot. He will get his soft ground, the horses around lami In his French wins says it all for me. Lack of staying opposition In France,

[Kevloaf]

Exactly... I think my 20/1 will be available on the day at SP

0.5 pts of the kevloaf Cheltenham fund resigned to the abyss

[JackieMoon33]

Exactly... I think my 20/1 will be available on the day at SP

0.5 pts of the kevloaf Cheltenham fund resigned to the abyss

0.5pts is insignificant compared to the other 750pts you've staked

[Geordieboy83]

As I have said before UKWIMH is my big punt on this race. But also like Coquin Mans, hopefully to run in for place money. Watched closely and ran a very good race last time out and stayed on well.

[Kevloaf]

From oddschecker... Which one of you has done this?

Lil Rockerfeller

A real fans’ favourite, the six-year-old ran a storming race in last season’s Stayers’ Hurdle at the Festival to finish second to Nichols Canyon beaten under a length. Neil King’s tenacious competitor is yet to be seen this season but that hasn’t stopped a large number of bets in the ante-post markets. Currently 20/1 in the betting, we’ve seen one punter place a three figure sum on the Grade 2 winner.

[robith]

As I have said before UKWIMH is my big punt on this race. But also like Coquin Mans, hopefully to run in for place money. Watched closely and ran a very good race last time out and stayed on well.

I rewatched the race last night (painful, it was the last leg of a fourfold that paid out £1k and would've made everything alright!) and was recalling his form throughout the season, and 8s seems a top price to me, especially as it seems certain this is his target again

[doctorwu]

had Lil Rocker a decent pilot on board I feel he would have won the stayers. Cant stand jocks that slow them down to nearly a standstill just to make sure and lose all momentum. It did for the horse Imo

[Innoko]

So finally got around to looking at this race. Re-watched both Cheltenham and Punchestown.

Can't for the life of me still work out how Nichols didn't win at Punchestown, and being two years younger for me really appeals at the price (7-1). Especially with the target assured......I think!

[JackieMoon33]

So finally got around to looking at this race. Re-watched both Cheltenham and Punchestown.

Can't for the life of me still work out how Nichols didn't win at Punchestown, and being two years younger for me really appeals at the price (7-1). Especially with the target assured......I think!

As I've seen the '2 years younger' quote mentioned a few times when comparing Nichols Canyon and Harry, I wanted to throw this out there to the knowledgable folk on here:

Nichols Canyon is 7 years old and had 28 races whereas Harry is 9 year old and had only 23 races. So is age a big factor here versus miles on the clock?

[ComplyOrDie]

As I've seen the '2 years younger' quote mentioned a few times when comparing Nichols Canyon and Harry, I wanted to throw this out there to the knowledgable folk on here:

Nichols Canyon is 7 years old and had 28 races whereas Harry is 9 year old and had only 23 races. So is age a big factor here versus miles on the clock?

Good question, I am also intrigued to find out everyone's view on this.

My opinion (which probably won't amount to much ) is that Nichols Canyon has been racing, for far too long, at inadequate trips, against some of the best horses in training, and in turn hasn't been seen to best effect, raced twice over 3m, winning the Stayers' as we know and finishing 2nd to UNWIMH at Punchestown, so I feel there is still more to come from him over this trip, as opposed to him being fully exposed over shorter trips of between 2m & 2m 4f.

[archie]

My take on it would be:
1. UNWIMH has indeed had fewer races than Nichols but, as 10 of Nichols' races were on the flat, the latter is the one with fewer miles on the clock.
2. Over the last 2 seasons Nichols has had 11 races and Harry 14 so more recent miles as well.
3. This will be the first season that Nichols will have been trained for specifically this race. Expect to see him raced sparingly.
4. No 10yo has ever won the Stayers and it's over 30 years since it was won by an 11yo.

[Scooby91]

My take on it would be:
1. UNWIMH has indeed had fewer races than Nichols but, as 10 of Nichols' races were on the flat, the latter is the one with fewer miles on the clock.
2. Over the last 2 seasons Nichols has had 11 races and Harry 14 so more recent miles as well.
3. This will be the first season that Nichols will have been trained for specifically this race. Expect to see him raced sparingly.
4. No 10yo has ever won the Stayers and it's over 30 years since it was won by an 11yo.

Would you not say NC has had 11 tough races though compared to UNWIMH ?
For what it's worth I think both are well clear.

[archie]

Would you not say NC has had 11 tough races though compared to UNWIMH ?
For what it's worth I think both are well clear.

NC certainly ran in 11 G1s which are bound to take more out of him but his 11 races totalled 25.5 miles compared to the 40.5 miles covered by Harry. Probably balances itself out.
I agree that, on last season's form, the pair of them stand out with an honourable mention for Lil Rockefeller who, at 6, may have more improvement in him. Unless there's something lurking in the pack from the Neptune that is going to come on for a trip it's hard to see the winner being other than one of those three. On the stats I just can't have Harry.