Stayers Hurdle 2018

[Quevega]

Been keen on Sam Spinner all season. I think Supasundae wins on good ground (though looks unlikely). Sam wins for me on good to soft or worse. There is the Cheltenham factor but he has run on a variety of tracks and not had an issue and is likely to improve again having had only seven runs over hurdles.

My advice would be to wait until the morning though as I can see him being quite weak in the market and you’ll be able to secure a good price then.

I thought the same with sam's price and told a mate who likes him for this to wait till the morning as I reckon 8-1 isn't out of the question, this market is offering no value at all right now and lots of room for bigger prices on the day. But if the ground is softer than usual Sam's price may be solid around the 11/2 mark.

[opatcho]

I think he'll strengthen if the going is on the softer side of good - soft

[CheddarBrie]

Hi There, Been reading a few posts and found this forum very informative and thought its time to join in!

I noticed over the last few pages Harry hasn't really been talked about much and generally looks to be overlooked. Im no expert so might have some of this wrong but from the way I see it although he's 10 and not fired as hoped the last couple times this definitely looks weaker with neither of the market leaders really standing out to me.

Harry has been reported to be looking good, has valuable cheltenham form, will have his ground and is clearly the highest rated of the bunch right?

He was 12/1 the other day on Bet365 and now into 10/1.. I know we have to hope for a small revival but I personally think he's booked for a place and has hell of a chance of winning at a nice price and getting his redemption at probably his last chance?

Would anyone like to pick some holes in my ideology for me haha?

[Istabraq]

Welcome CB.
10 is a big age barrier for me altgough I know trends get broken I think it would have to be an exceptionally weak renewal for him to prevail....

[CheddarBrie]

Welcome CB.
10 is a big age barrier for me altgough I know trends get broken I think it would have to be an exceptionally weak renewal for him to prevail....

I know he's 10 and I do actually quite like Supasundae & Yanworth but I can't help thinking there not exactly proven dour stayers just yet? The horses behind them over 3 miles when they were 1st/2nd aren't exactly top class and neither are the ones behind Supasundae when second twice to Apples. Sam Spinner is an unknown for me but I have a feeling he won't be able to pull something like his last race off again, especially not at Cheltenham, plus when would L'ami Serge realistically beat Harry into 3rd like that day usually so was not running to his mark?

I thought Harry seemed very consistent for his age bar a blip or two. He could just well stay them into the ground with a bit of luck IMO.

[Quevega]

I know he's 10 and I do actually quite like Supasundae & Yanworth but I can't help thinking there not exactly proven dour stayers just yet? The horses behind them over 3 miles when they were 1st/2nd aren't exactly top class and neither are the ones behind Supasundae when second twice to Apples. Sam Spinner is an unknown for me but I have a feeling he won't be able to pull something like his last race off again, especially not at Cheltenham, plus when would L'ami Serge realistically beat Harry into 3rd like that day usually so was not running to his mark?

I thought Harry seemed very consistent for his age bar a blip or two. He could just well stay them into the ground with a bit of luck IMO.

Although this race looks open, it also looks competitive, and there are a few that could well put on a much improved performance for varying reason's. Therefore I think that Harry's price is too short at the moment, as he's one that is less likely to produce a lifetime best, and he should be a bigger price on the morning of the race. Which is true for most of the runners to be fair.
Harry's only hope is that he's had some of the magic grass at his owner's gaff, as he was one a of a select few that's been on holidays there recently.

[Kevloaf]

I know he's 10 and I do actually quite like Supasundae & Yanworth but I can't help thinking there not exactly proven dour stayers just yet? The horses behind them over 3 miles when they were 1st/2nd aren't exactly top class and neither are the ones behind Supasundae when second twice to Apples. Sam Spinner is an unknown for me but I have a feeling he won't be able to pull something like his last race off again, especially not at Cheltenham, plus when would L'ami Serge realistically beat Harry into 3rd like that day usually so was not running to his mark?

I thought Harry seemed very consistent for his age bar a blip or two. He could just well stay them into the ground with a bit of luck IMO.

Welcome CB.

I don't think UNWIMH is a bad shout at a double figure price...

I do however think Sam Spinner has him held. I don't think there was an element of fluke about his win last time.

In the Long Walk Hurdle the ground was good to soft, which if we assume it is for the festival on the Thursday, would give me hope that he has the measure of L'ami and UNWIMH again. I don't see why they'd reverse the form. With L'ami it is his attitude and with UNWIMH (who went off 6/4f) I don't think there were any excuses either.

If it is soft (which I personally don't think it will be, but for the sake of arguement).... his chance would be improved because it wouldn't help any of his main rivals as much as him. He bolted up on Heavy at Haydock (which is as bad as you can get) by 17L in a handicap.

I don't like the cliche about "if he was trained by X or Y he'd be shorter".... because although that is true, that is for a decent reason. The point is though for me, that that is factored in to his price and although they're all available at 5/1... I think his FORM is better than anything elses.

Supasundae over 3m has been beaten, and won a 2m race last time. Whether you like that or not (I do), it is NOT better form than Sam Spinner has this season.

Yanworth hasn't run over 3m this season or over hurdles yet... schooling is all well and good, but that isn't an ideal prep in anyones book. He might be good enough, but 5s is short compared to a horse who has the form in the book over hurdles and the trip this season. I think Supasundae and YAnworth are favs because of their novice hurdle clash at Aintree.

It could be argued Yanworth and Supasundae don't fully stay, as beating Snow Falcon in that race doesn't prove it, however that isn't an angle I'd be going down personally. I just think Sam Spinner IS undoubtably proven stayer over 3m.

Looking at the next few in the betting, Penhill (no runs this season, if he wins fair play - complete unknown, but has INCREDIBLE adversity to overcome, including winning first time out and being an Albert Bartlett winner)

UNWIMH - held on the Ascot run.

L'ami Serge - held on the Ascot run (Absolutely no reason to be confident he'd get his head in front at all) if he was 12/1 and SS was 2/1 I could see it as a possible value bet, but 5/1 is still a very backable price.

Bacardys - rubbish prep, no proof he gets 3m - wouldn't be the worlds biggest shock but I'd take Sam Spinner over him still.

The major doubt is going to be the Cheltenham form - no arguement for that. If he'd run inwon the Cleeve rather than the Long Walk hurdle he'd be a 2/1 shot. I think the price is fair still at 5/1

I'm not going through the whole list... there are loads with chances and I've backed pretty much all of them - but now we're getting close it is time to make some decisions on who I think will win and manipulate my book accordingly.

I feel like Sam Spinner is the best value in this race, and am quite happy to back him again at 5/1. (Also going to put this in the Thursday yankee thread to try and not have to back L'ami Serge!)

[opatcho]

Totally agree with the above

I have my largest single AP bet on this horse and I make him my NAP outside of the odds on favourites (B D’Air, Smacro...)

[Westo97]

Funny shape to it this race. I can't have Harry at all, I was massively against him in this last year when everything went perfectly for him throughout the season and he was not good enough then, I struggle to see why he will be good enough a year on.
I also think some like to re-write history a little with Harry, I have heard a few put him up off the back of this years renewal not having a horse of Nichols Canyon calibre in the field. That may be true, but Lil Rockefeller beat Harry by 3L in this last year but is never referenced, I think some have it in their head Harry was a close 2nd last year. If any horse is the forgotten value its Lil Rockefeller at double Harry's price!

I'm shaping the race around Bacardys and L'Ami Serge for my sins. Would rather take on those at the head of the market, Bacardys is the dark one whilst L'Ami Serge is the most talented horse in the race who I hope may put it all together on the day.

[robith]

Funny shape to it this race. I can't have Harry at all, I was massively against him in this last year when everything went perfectly for him throughout the season and he was not good enough then, I struggle to see why he will be good enough a year on.
I also think some like to re-write history a little with Harry, I have heard a few put him up off the back of this years renewal not having a horse of Nichols Canyon calibre in the field. That may be true, but Lil Rockefeller beat Harry by 3L in this last year but is never referenced, I think some have it in their head Harry was a close 2nd last year. If any horse is the forgotten value its Lil Rockefeller at double Harry's price!

I'm shaping the race around Bacardys and L'Ami Serge for my sins. Would rather take on those at the head of the market, Bacardys is the dark one whilst L'Ami Serge is the most talented horse in the race who I hope may put it all together on the day.

I loved Harry last year, but he's got the 10 year old and Albert Bartlett trends going against him this year and the back of a poorer season too. I keep getting tempted by the price, but no I can't be tempted.

L'Ami Serge - I detest this horse. So many trebles lost on the last leg watching him get done late on

[Faugheen_Machine]

The Albert Bartlett trend is a rubbish trend isn't it? Surely a horse can't be ruled out because it has won the AB. It wouldn't put me off Penhill anyway.

UKWIMH had his chance last year and it takes a slight leap of faith to think he is going to be good enough now imo.

[loveracing]

Penhills form is rock solid so if, and it’s a huge if, they have him in top shape first time up then I understand the support. He finished 7 lengths ahead of wholestone in last year’s Bartlett and the race may well suit one who picks them off late

Heads up and pile in!

[ComplyOrDie]

The Albert Bartlett trend is a rubbish trend isn't it? Surely a horse can't be ruled out because it has won the AB. It wouldn't put me off Penhill anyway.

UKWIMH had his chance last year and it takes a slight leap of faith to think he is going to be good enough now imo.

I agree, I have been drawn back round to Penhill now.

[Westo97]

I loved Harry last year, but he's got the 10 year old and Albert Bartlett trends going against him this year and the back of a poorer season too. I keep getting tempted by the price, but no I can't be tempted.

L'Ami Serge - I detest this horse. So many trebles lost on the last leg watching him get done late on

I totally get why people don't like L'Ami Serge. I look back on the Skybet Chase race again and I think the horse was putting it in more than ever (for him) in that. Russell had to get into him earlier than ideal due to way the race played out, and whilst he still looked a little awkward, I think it was trying.

I think the interesting angle for me is could Sam Spinner soften up the field a little. He is going to gallop and grind from the front and he might just soften up others who sit tracking. L'Ami can cruise at any speed over fences/hurdles and if held onto until as late as possible, then I think he becomes a serious player here.

[Kevloaf]

Funny shape to it this race. I can't have Harry at all, I was massively against him in this last year when everything went perfectly for him throughout the season and he was not good enough then, I struggle to see why he will be good enough a year on.
I also think some like to re-write history a little with Harry, I have heard a few put him up off the back of this years renewal not having a horse of Nichols Canyon calibre in the field. That may be true, but Lil Rockefeller beat Harry by 3L in this last year but is never referenced, I think some have it in their head Harry was a close 2nd last year. If any horse is the forgotten value its Lil Rockefeller at double Harry's price!

I'm shaping the race around Bacardys and L'Ami Serge for my sins. Would rather take on those at the head of the market, Bacardys is the dark one whilst L'Ami Serge is the most talented horse in the race who I hope may put it all together on the day.

What is wrong with Sam Spinner? Just the price compared to L'ami?