Stayers Hurdle 2018

[Robbante]

Most of my money is tied up with him any race this year, but I’m convinced that he has no chance in the stayers. To me his trip is the intermediate one this year, his best performances have been over that trip, and there’s just no reason to rush to step him up to 3 miles. His performance last time out against Benatar was really encouraging, especially as it came fairly soon after being taken off his feet at Sandown. Benatar will go close in the JLT and is potentially a top chaser, he gave him 5lbs and arguably would have won if coming into that race fresh. They should have taken heed of that improved performance and put him away for a bit, sharpened up his jumping, and aimed him at no other race than the JLT. He is good enough to win that race I’m sure... whether he is good enough to win it after going 3 miles at pace against some of the best staying hurdlers around I would highly doubt. Tizzard is ruining the horse

[Faugheen_Machine]

L'ami Serge is going chasing as a prep run for the Stayers hurdle?!

It looks to me like the owners see Wholestone as their number one and will have the option to run LS elsewhere if he impresses over fences. I can't think of any other reason as to why they'd do this.

[Al Ferof]

L'ami Serge is going chasing as a prep run for the Stayers hurdle?!

It looks to me like the owners see Wholestone as their number one and will have the option to run LS elsewhere if he impresses over fences. I can't think of any other reason as to why they'd do this.

Agreed. L’ami would never win a stayers, has all the talent but not the resolve.

[Scooby91]

L'ami Serge is going chasing as a prep run for the Stayers hurdle?!

It looks to me like the owners see Wholestone as their number one and will have the option to run LS elsewhere if he impresses over fences. I can't think of any other reason as to why they'd do this.

Very unlikely wholestone is well held. Lami serge there no 1 no doubt, whether he wins the stayers is a whole other matter.

A lesser race over a shorter trio in different conditions last time dosent make wholestome suddenly a live chance for the stayers . Lami serge would beat him held together

[jono]

I wonder what Mr Potts would have made of the way Tizzard has handled Finians Oscar and co this year. He was never one to stick with something that wasn't quite working...

[Adam93]

First time poster long time reader but decided to take the plunge, a market iv really been struggling with so far but first ante on today with FO still available NRNB at 22s with WH seem too big? No idea with Tizzard is doing lately.

Will be very interested to see who turns up in the Cleeve as an indicator; Beer Goggles, UNWIMH, FO?

[KingSprinterSacre]

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Finians Oscar pricewised

Ante-post advice

Finian's Oscar
Stayers' Hurdle
1pt each-way at 16-1 with bet365 (NRNB)




Finian's Oscar

3:30 Cheltenham


There was a time when the Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle was the poor relation of the championship races at the Cheltenham Festival, which was probably the main reason why horses like Baracouda, Inglis Drever and Big Buck’s could win the race over and over again.

However, that’s not the case anymore as, for the most part, the race has been transformed into a much more competitive and open betting contest.

That was certainly the case 12 months ago and there are plenty who can be fancied at this stage.

Sam Spinner, who looked really good at Ascot last time, is one of them but he’s too short a price now and has no Cheltenham form. He stays and jumps and has more improvement in him, but he will be facing a different set of rivals to those he beat at Ascot.

Last year’s Coral Cup winner Supasundae has the added advantage of being proven at the track, and on good ground. He ran as well as ever at Leopardstown over Christmas when trying to give two mares lots of weight, and he looks sure to go well.

However, a bit like Sam Spinner, his price has been contracting almost daily and I’m not sure there is much room for him to shorten between now and the big day.

Gordon Elliott has insisted Apple’s Jade won’t run in this and, while Penhill looked good in the Albert Bartlett last year, that wasn’t the strongest of Cheltenham races.

Consequently, the value lies with some of the Grade 1-winning hurdlers who might well switch disciplines having struggled over fences recently.

Big Buck’s thrived when reverting to hurdles and the most high-profile candidate on that score would be Yanworth, who won the Stayers’ Hurdle at Aintree and is extremely talented.

JP McManus doesn’t seem to have has a cast-iron candidate with Unowhatimeanharry not in top form, so Yanworth could easily switch back.

However, I still wonder about his attitude and he did jump all right when winning the Dipper over fences last time, so he might easily stay chasing.

In contrast, Bacardys and Finian’s Oscar have lost confidence over fences and will be much better served over hurdles.

Bacardys has won a point-to-point, but he has been unconvincing in his two novice chases and came down at Leopardstown over Christmas. He beat Finian’s Oscar narrowly in a Grade 1 at Punchestown last season and stays really well, so it would be no surprise if he made his presence felt.




Finian's Oscar: could be a force to reckon with back over hurdles and upped to three miles



Finian's Oscar: could be a force to reckon with back over hurdles and upped to three miles

Mark Cranham


However, it's Finian's Oscar who interests me most as I thought he was just about the best staying novice hurdler around last season, despite things not going perfectly.

Colin Tizzard’s six-year-old would have beaten Bacardys but for losing momentum at the last at Punchestown, and the engine has looked as good as ever over fences.

He sprinted up the Cheltenham hill in November to beat Movewiththetimes without jumping that well, but has got progressively worse since.

The minimum trip at Sandown in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase was clearly not his thing, but he also lost many lengths when failing to take a cut at his fences when run out of it by Benatar at Ascot last time.

He did really well to be beaten so narrowly and there is no doubt he is going to be much better back over hurdles, and upped to three miles.

The plan is to do a Thistlecrack and go for the Cleeve Hurdle before the Stayers’, so it makes sense to take the non-runner no bet option with him because if he runs badly there he won’t be seen in March.

Of the rest, The New One could go well upped to three miles, but he was well beaten at Sandown when stepped up in trip last season, and more dangerous is L’Ami Serge, who has any amount of ability but might run over fences next.

[ryanh97]

Welcome Adam - I think I saw UNWIMH is going straight for this

[Adam93]

Welcome Adam - I think I saw UNWIMH is going straight for this

Thanks, just reading that myself now, a shame as would have been a good yard stick. Still an interesting trial.

[Innoko]

Tizzard's problem is he doesn't think.

He gives all these interviews saying a horse will go here or a horse will go there. Yet by the time he's got home he's probably forgotten what he has actually said.

One minute its the JLT, next the Arkle, next the RSA and now the Stayers.

Someone who we perceived to be a 'punters friend' has turned out to be quite the opposite.

If this were Mullins he would have been hung out with the washing by now.

The Potts family will move their horses over to Ireland if they know what's good for them. They can't be impressed by this circus.

[jonthehammer]

Price gone already on FO. Now 10s with Hills nrnb

[Istabraq]

Innoko

A very good friend of mine is a pro cricket punter, he always turns the sound off when watching/punting cricket because he says his views can be distorted by what the commentators say.
In racing terms this equates to betting with what you see, not what connections tell you.
You can generally tell if a horse is better suited to 2m, 2.4m or 3m, Tizzard has confused punters this year definitely butthe difference with your Mullins analogy is that Ricci, in particular, rarely runs his against each other so even though you think one of his could be a cracking JLT bet if he already has one for that then yours will end up in the Arkle, RSA or Grand Annual....

[The Beast]

Gave my view on Farmer Tizzard in previous thread , guy has seriously lost the plot.Horse is decent , buy he no Buveur Dair nor is Tizz patch on Nicky Henderson.

[Kevloaf]

I think the commentating thing is literally the same in racing too. Every time I miss the racing (which isn't that often) but for example this weekend just passed, I hadn't watched any of the racing. I was able to read comments on here, and the racing post reports and the commentry back in places too.
I was staggered at one horse in particular when I watched it back, because it was NO WHERE NEAR as good as had been made out in the media and anywhere. It'd shortened for the festival and I couldn't believe the praise the commentator was giving, to what was in fairness a decent, but workmanlike performance!

Watching replays without the commentry is an absolute MUST when look back at a race. I'd rather be wrong with my own opinion than get sucked in to the auto-praise, which is why I got so frustrated with myself about Finian's Oscar this season.

[The Beast]

Innoko

A very good friend of mine is a pro cricket punter, he always turns the sound off when watching/punting cricket because he says his views can be distorted by what the commentators say.
In racing terms this equates to betting with what you see, not what connections tell you.
You can generally tell if a horse is better suited to 2m, 2.4m or 3m, Tizzard has confused punters this year definitely butthe difference with your Mullins analogy is that Ricci, in particular, rarely runs his against each other so even though you think one of his could be a cracking JLT bet if he already has one for that then yours will end up in the Arkle, RSA or Grand Annual....

No Arsenal fans on here i hope , will never win prem with Wenger in control lol