Stayers Hurdle 2018

[Kevloaf]

That race with Apples Jade and Supasundae on everyones lips ,and rightly so.

Having watched it couple of times today again , I keep coming back to the third horse Bapaume who was making with seasonal debut. Bapaume travelled exceptionally well throughout race , moving into position to challenge turning for home. Race fitness told and he faded final furlong.

Looking at his races , this was his first time at 3mile , after running really well at 2 mile last year.Looks a very big improver and only a five year old.

I then had little look around bookies and Skybet are a standout 66/1 when generally he a 20/1 shot , had to tip my toe in again in race as thats just a massive price.

Can't knock anything 50/1+ as a punt...

For me it would be a monumental ask for a 5yo that wasn't stand-out last year to come in to open company and win a 3m championship event though this season.

Certainly was a nice run though and if improving for fitness next time, he shouldn't be almost 8 times the price of Supasundae...

I'm not a devoted follower to stats/trends but I do remember making a case for Apple's Jade last year (early on in the season) to come here and perhaps Ista pointed out just how tough that would actually be for a 5yo in this race... just the nature of it alone would be too tough? (That might be inaccurate on who and what was said though haha)

[Robbante]

Can't knock anything 50/1+ as a punt...

For me it would be a monumental ask for a 5yo that wasn't stand-out last year to come in to open company and win a 3m championship event though this season.

Certainly was a nice run though and if improving for fitness next time, he shouldn't be almost 8 times the price of Supasundae...

I'm not a devoted follower to stats/trends but I do remember making a case for Apple's Jade last year (early on in the season) to come here and perhaps Ista pointed out just how tough that would actually be for a 5yo in this race... just the nature of it alone would be too tough? (That might be inaccurate on who and what was said though haha)

The favourite is a 5yo so fair negative for him also!

[jono]

The favourite is a 5yo so fair negative for him also!

Now a 6yo, add a year on at the start of every calendar year. (Bapuame now a 5yo)

From gaulstats ahead of last years festival where there was no 5 year old to line up either:

No 5 year old has ever won this race. French bred 5 yr olds such as Le Coudray, Cyborgo and Escartifigue went close and Smad Place was third in 2012. What would have happened if he had been allowed to lead? 5 of the 11 five year olds to run in the last 14 editions have been placed (and 4 of the last 6). None ran in the last three years

[Kevloaf]

Now a 6yo, add a year on at the start of every calendar year. (Bapuame now a 5yo)

From gaulstats ahead of last years festival where there was no 5 year old to line up either:

Bapaume is 5yo this festival
Sam Spinner is 6yo this festival

That stat certainly says not many horses try it and that is probably for good reason?

He might end up in a handicap?

[jono]

On Bapaume - after that run I had him down as a decent chance in a handicap rather than this race. Quite liked him for the Coral Cup but not yet in the early betting market. Rated 146 after that run which fits in well. It would be a drop back to 2m5 but the race almost always produces horses that go onto contest 3m+ races later down the line.

[Robbante]

Bapaume is 5yo this festival
Sam Spinner is 6yo this festival

That stat certainly says not many horses try it and that is probably for good reason?

He might end up in a handicap?

Ah fair one, something I’ve learnt

[Robbante]

On Bapaume - after that run I had him down as a decent chance in a handicap rather than this race. Quite liked him for the Coral Cup but not yet in the early betting market. Rated 146 after that run which fits in well. It would be a drop back to 2m5 but the race almost always produces horses that go onto contest 3m+ races later down the line.

Bapaume added today with paddys for the coral cup at 25s

[Robbante]

Bapaume added today with paddys for the coral cup at 25s

Not showing on their book for this race but was requested on twitter earlier and that price given with their dial a bet team

[Kevloaf]

What price would Apple's JAde go off for this race.

Sky (via the SL website on Lydia's Road To Cheltenham) https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...m-eight/138567

Are offering 4/1. Last season I would have just taken it ... but would it be worth 'tying up' the money for the sake of maybe 3/1 rather than 4/1?

A penny in the hand is worth 2 in a bush or whatever the saying it

[Faugheen_Machine]

STD on TNO, from ATR.

Sam Twiston-Davies has not given up hope of The New One winning for the second time at the Cheltenham Festival.

Trained by his father, Nigel, The New One won the Neptune Novices' Hurdle in 2013 and has finished third, fifth, fourth and fifth in the last four Champion Hurdles.

Having shown he retains plenty of ability this season while falling just short of the very best, he will be stepped up to three miles in March for the Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle.

"Everyone knows what Nige is like and he will always be tempted by the Champion Hurdle, but he did say the one thing he would do this year is try the three-mile race," said Twiston-Davies.

"He is in fantastic form and he will run over two miles at Haydock, then we will step into the unknown at Cheltenham and see and hope.

"The one thing with the Champion Hurdle is the prize-money is fantastic all the way down. He finished fifth last year and got loads of prize-money and you never know, he could nick a bit more.

"(But) when you go to Cheltenham you want to believe you can win and the trouble is with some of those younger horses coming through, they just have that little bit too much speed for him.

"The chance we have of winning at Cheltenham is in the three-mile race. We are stepping massively into the unknown, but you have to remember he won a Neptune over two-five and he ran through the finishing line and didn't pull up until the top of the hill.

"If the ground is good, I don't see any reason why he won't get it. It will open up a lot more avenues and as we have seen over two miles this season, he is still plenty capable of picking up prize-money in the best races."

[Kevloaf]

With the positive update from Mullins on Penhill, has anyone taken the 8/1 NRNB (or 10/1) about him for the Stayers?

I haven't as I haven't decided what price I think he'd go off and whether or not he'd be much shorter than 8/1

[ryanh97]

Yanworth will be entered in this race due to a wide open division - 'although nothing is decided yet'

[Montjeu]

With the positive update from Mullins on Penhill, has anyone taken the 8/1 NRNB (or 10/1) about him for the Stayers?

I haven't as I haven't decided what price I think he'd go off and whether or not he'd be much shorter than 8/1

I haven't taken either Kev but I suppose the 8/1 makes a lot of sense, especially each way. With the state of the division you could argue he might of off favourite?

[Robbante]

The addition of Yanworth and Penhill to this market only makes it even more open. I’d give both a good chance of making the frame

[BigChaang]

Got penhill in some multiples at 10-1 , early doors before he was injured , sound positive , may get a run for my £.