Stayers Hurdle 2018

[SeanRock]

Totally agree with this; he also ran well in the Bumper in 2015. When you take into account how Harrington's horses ran last week it makes his run look even better.

I think he's value at current prices, so many question marks over the rest of the head of the market

[Robbante]

In the Ryanair at Aintree on good spring ground Supasundae finished less than a length ahead of Snow Falcon, who had been soundly beaten by UNWIMH twice last year. In the coral cup last year he finished a couple of lengths ahead of Taquin De Seuil, who Sam Spinner and UNWIMH hammered last time out. Just don’t think his form is there at the top level as a staying hurdler. I think Sam Spinner is a worthy favourite given it was good to soft last time out, but I would expect The Worlds End to get a lot closer in March

[SeanRock]

In the Ryanair at Aintree on good spring ground Supasundae finished less than a length ahead of Snow Falcon, who had been soundly beaten by UNWIMH twice last year. In the coral cup last year he finished a couple of lengths ahead of Taquin De Seuil, who Sam Spinner and UNWIMH hammered last time out. Just don’t think his form is there at the top level as a staying hurdler. I think Sam Spinner is a worthy favourite given it was good to soft last time out, but I would expect The Worlds End to get a lot closer in March

If Apples Jade was to go for the stayers would you be on her? I certainly would and with Supasundae's latest form giving her 7lbs on ground that would favour Apples Jade massively is hard to look past imo. I also think Jessy has a good knack for preparing her stable to peak on the day she has earmarked them for.

[Robbante]

If Apples Jade was to go for the stayers would you be on her?

No, not based on the form of her win last time out, the only time she’s tried 3 miles. 12 lengths or so ahead of Augusta Kate, who had a troubled run as well. Penhill beat Augusta Kate 23 lengths at Cheltenham last March over a similar trip. Maybe simplifying it a bit using those formlines, but it’s all we’ve got to go on at the trip. Sam Spinner has the form in the book this year, is progressive, will be fresh, goes on any ground, he’s pretty solid as a favourite and I’ll be putting most of my eggs in his basket (with cover on the worlds end and Penhill if he gets back)

[SeanRock]

No, not based on the form of her win last time out, the only time she’s tried 3 miles. 12 lengths or so ahead of Augusta Kate, who had a troubled run as well. Penhill beat Augusta Kate 23 lengths at Cheltenham last March over a similar trip. Maybe simplifying it a bit using those formlines, but it’s all we’ve got to go on at the trip. Sam Spinner has the form in the book this year, is progressive, will be fresh, goes on any ground, he’s pretty solid as a favourite and I’ll be putting most of my eggs in his basket (with cover on the worlds end and Penhill if he gets back)

I think AJ is a different mare this season she's filled out and matured a lot and looks like she's found another level, but we'll let the mares hurdle do the talking.

[Robbante]

I think AJ is a different mare this season she's filled out and matured a lot and looks like she's found another level, but we'll let the mares hurdle do the talking.

Valid point. Only doubts about Sam Spinner for me would be on genuine good ground. But then under those conditions I’d fancy The Worlds End/Penhill if back. Supasundae on good ground i’d respect, and was a great ew price obviously when 20s. At 8s now I’ve got to leave alone

[SeanRock]

Valid point. Only doubts about Sam Spinner for me would be on genuine good ground. But then under those conditions I’d fancy The Worlds End/Penhill if back. Supasundae on good ground i’d respect, and was a great ew price obviously when 20s. At 8s now I’ve got to leave alone

If Sam Spinner were to continue his upward curve form lines until March id be very impressed and he's be a worthy winner if he were to do the business, but i just don't see it i think he'll be vulnerable to an experienced classy sort on the day, this is the first year in a while that there hasn't been a standout staying hurdle star dominating the division i.e. Thistlecrack, UNWIMH & Big Bucks

[doctorwu]

In the Ryanair at Aintree on good spring ground Supasundae finished less than a length ahead of Snow Falcon, who had been soundly beaten by UNWIMH twice last year. In the coral cup last year he finished a couple of lengths ahead of Taquin De Seuil, who Sam Spinner and UNWIMH hammered last time out. Just don’t think his form is there at the top level as a staying hurdler. I think Sam Spinner is a worthy favourite given it was good to soft last time out, but I would expect The Worlds End to get a lot closer in March

Rob,
Supasundae has fez form, he's done it. SS will set the race up and get eaten up by a few in this race. Cant have him in the first 4. He's had his day in the sun, now let the horses who are preparing for this take centre stage.

[Scooby91]

Valid point. Only doubts about Sam Spinner for me would be on genuine good ground. But then under those conditions I’d fancy The Worlds End/Penhill if back. Supasundae on good ground i’d respect, and was a great ew price obviously when 20s. At 8s now I’ve got to leave alone

Id agree with the supasundae part. He's going to go back out a couple of points after the Irish champion hurdle id have thought. Hes deffinately in with a solid ew chance , if he'd have gone straight there his price now is fair.

[Robbante]

Rob,
Supasundae has fez form, he's done it. SS will set the race up and get eaten up by a few in this race. Cant have him in the first 4. He's had his day in the sun, now let the horses who are preparing for this take centre stage.

Respect Supasundae for sure, but won't be getting involved at the price he is now. I think you can get at his form, even in the Coral Cup he was only beating horses like Taquin De Seuil a couple of lengths. This season UNWIMH beat that horse by further giving him half a stone, and UNWIMH seems regressive. I don't see Supasundae winning the race and 8s isn't a decent enough ew price for me. If he gets pushed out a bit then i may have a little on ew

[Kevloaf]

What has Beer Goggles done wrong to be 25/1 in a place? (888) - Has he missed an engagement that I haven't noticed?

If the win over UNWIMH (14/1), Colin's Sister(33/1), Wholestone(16/1) is to be believed he should be shorter than all 3?


I didn't back him after that win as I felt he was too short but 25/1 seems fair!

[doctorwu]

Respect Supasundae for sure, but won't be getting involved at the price he is now. I think you can get at his form, even in the Coral Cup he was only beating horses like Taquin De Seuil a couple of lengths. This season UNWIMH beat that horse by further giving him half a stone, and UNWIMH seems regressive. I don't see Supasundae winning the race and 8s isn't a decent enough ew price for me. If he gets pushed out a bit then i may have a little on ew

Rob,
TDS another horse with fez form. It counts for a lot. What they do through the season means nothing with some horses, come the fez they perform. Supasundae entire season is built around this race. He may not be quite good enough but he will go close imo.

[Kevloaf]

Rob,
TDS another horse with fez form. It counts for a lot. What they do through the season means nothing with some horses, come the fez they perform. Supasundae entire season is built around this race. He may not be quite good enough but he will go close imo.

That is a good point regarding the festival form and TDS in particular.

I think they have Supasundae priced about right because I don't think he's a good value bet and I would be tempted at a bit bigger if I was getting involved in the race now. In the fullness of time, being beaten by Apple's Jade, Yanworth and Sutton Place not too far might look brilliant.... or it might mean he is not quite classy enough to win a championship race...

[Robbante]

Rob,
TDS another horse with fez form. It counts for a lot. What they do through the season means nothing with some horses, come the fez they perform. Supasundae entire season is built around this race. He may not be quite good enough but he will go close imo.

Valid points, and maybe I’d be seeing him in a different light had I got on at 20s. Will make a decision the night before as I can’t see he’ll be shorter, softish ground and I’ll leave alone probably

[The Beast]

That race with Apples Jade and Supasundae on everyones lips ,and rightly so.

Having watched it couple of times today again , I keep coming back to the third horse Bapaume who was making with seasonal debut. Bapaume travelled exceptionally well throughout race , moving into position to challenge turning for home. Race fitness told and he faded final furlong.

Looking at his races , this was his first time at 3mile , after running really well at 2 mile last year.Looks a very big improver and only a five year old.

I then had little look around bookies and Skybet are a standout 66/1 when generally he a 20/1 shot , had to tip my toe in again in race as thats just a massive price.