Stayers Hurdle 2018

[The Beast]

Think we agreed Supasundee reappearance caught our eye , NC run concerns me for following reason.

He normally wins first time out ,which presumably means he pretty easy to get fit.So did our man Willie expect to win with 90% fit NC against Apple Jade , or has that NC fighting spirit on the wane cos he had few scraps.Either way watching brief by me next time.

[Kevloaf]

Think we agreed Supasundee reappearance caught our eye , NC run concerns me for following reason.

He normally wins first time out ,which presumably means he pretty easy to get fit.So did our man Willie expect to win with 90% fit NC against Apple Jade , or has that NC fighting spirit on the wane cos he had few scraps.Either way watching brief by me next time.

I think that "winning first time out" might be a little over played because he beat Faugheen. Faugheen was below par and on his other runs he's just beaten Baily CLoud and Jers Girl... not disgraceful but Apple's Jade is MILES better than Jers Girl for example...

I think NC is still the one to beat in the Stayers.... so unexposed over 3m and you KNOW he stays it...

[Kevloaf]

Sky are price boosting Supasundae to 25/1 at the moment for this race ... via Road to Cheltenham on sporting life website

[doctorwu]

Sky are price boosting Supasundae to 25/1 at the moment for this race ... via Road to Cheltenham on sporting life website

Thanks for the info Kev

[Faugheen_Machine]

Cheers Kev

*Damn it, I missed it.

[Kevloaf]

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/road-to-cheltenham-exclusive-boosts/130825

Try that?

[ryanh97]

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...-boosts/130825

Try that?

Theyll let me have a whopping £5.75

[Faugheen_Machine]

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...-boosts/130825

Try that?

Cheers - appreciate that

[Scooby91]

Theyll let me have a whopping £5.75

£0.39 for the Mrs and 0 for me.

[ryanh97]

£0.39 for the Mrs and 0 for me.

Generous bastards

[Kevloaf]

1. Is Beer Goggles being overlooked at 25/1 .... short as 14/1 in places?

2. I don't think Nichols Canyon lost too much (if anything) in defeat this weekend, certainly compared to UNWIMH, especially when 3m brought out such improvement for NC and he's so unexposed over that trip. I don't care how good NC has been 1st time out in the past, Apple's Jade race fit put in her best ever performance.... so happy with NC still, has anyone else taken that view?

3. Which is a worse price..... 16/1 L'Ami Serge or 16/1 Lil Rockerfeller.?

[Scooby91]

1. Is Beer Goggles being overlooked at 25/1 .... short as 14/1 in places?

2. I don't think Nichols Canyon lost too much (if anything) in defeat this weekend, certainly compared to UNWIMH, especially when 3m brought out such improvement for NC and he's so unexposed over that trip. I don't care how good NC has been 1st time out in the past, Apple's Jade race fit put in her best ever performance.... so happy with NC still, has anyone else taken that view?

3. Which is a worse price..... 16/1 L'Ami Serge or 16/1 Lil Rockerfeller.?

I dont think NC or Harry lost much at the weekend.berr goggles ran in a handicap of a huge weight the time before and is plenty fit enough. The problem is if your Geraghty or any of the other riders you wouldn't be keeping too much of an eye on the 40/1 shot who's gone off in front, your more worried about running the race of who's a round you.

Beer goggles is obviously a good horse he's won plenty this year but they won't make the same mistake again, harry would follow him and I could see the form over turned off levels. There's worse 25/1 shots in the world though.

Lami serge / lil rockerfeller.
Lami serge shaped very well in that race but tbh if you backed him next time out every time he shaped well, you'd be in the poorhouse. He has a habit of that especially on soft to heavy.

[Kevloaf]

I can't decide whether or not to put Beer Goggles in now at 25/1.... might have a deeper look at my situation actually.....

At the moment I have 13 pts staked(AND free bet's) and would return 18 pts minimum (5 pts profit) if any of:

Nichols Canyon (In numerous multiples)
UNWIMH (biggest single return, although NC would MUCH MORE LIKELY be better for me for the festival as a whole)
Apples Jade
Cilaos Emery
Lil Rockerfeller
L'ami Serge - actually only 10 pts back for this horse
VVM
Thistlecrack - only 12 pts back for this horse
Barters Hill
Supasundae

...were to win...which isn't bad....

Looking at oddschecker and the ones I haven't backed....
Penhill (not back until after Xmas - no rush at 12/1)
Thomas Campbell (Not interested at 16/1 at all)
Yanworth (Target far too unlikely for me ATM at 20/1)
Faugheen & Yorkhill (would want 999/1 for either, can't see any situation where the former runs, the latter NC would need to be injured and even then highly unlikely)
The Worlds End (ranges between 10/1 and 25/1 - tempted perhaps
Beer Goggles (Improving and beat UNWMH but probably wouldn't again tempted 25/1?
Sam Spinner (25/1 I was at Haydock and the ground is making me want to put a line through everything that day)
The New One (25/1 tempted perhaps but happy to leave for now... unexposed at the trip but is a Grade 2 horse even at best?)
Jezki (33/1 ... might run tempted perhaps ... although chance surely gone last year)
Wholestone 33/1 (looks well held on form although I like him....)
Let's Dance and Colins Sister.... former will surely go OLGB, latter well held...
Cole Harden 50/1 ... got to stop somewhere!

...................

No rush to act tonight I suppose, nothing likely to happen for a week or so.

[Scooby91]

I can't decide whether or not to put Beer Goggles in now at 25/1.... might have a deeper look at my situation actually.....

At the moment I have 13 pts staked(AND free bet's) and would return 18 pts minimum (5 pts profit) if any of:

Nichols Canyon (In numerous multiples)
UNWIMH (biggest single return, although NC would MUCH MORE LIKELY be better for me for the festival as a whole)
Apples Jade
Cilaos Emery
Lil Rockerfeller
L'ami Serge - actually only 10 pts back for this horse
VVM
Thistlecrack - only 12 pts back for this horse
Barters Hill
Supasundae

...were to win...which isn't bad....

Looking at oddschecker and the ones I haven't backed....
Penhill (not back until after Xmas - no rush at 12/1)
Thomas Campbell (Not interested at 16/1 at all)
Yanworth (Target far too unlikely for me ATM at 20/1)
Faugheen & Yorkhill (would want 999/1 for either, can't see any situation where the former runs, the latter NC would need to be injured and even then highly unlikely)
The Worlds End (ranges between 10/1 and 25/1 - tempted perhaps
Beer Goggles (Improving and beat UNWMH but probably wouldn't again tempted 25/1?
Sam Spinner (25/1 I was at Haydock and the ground is making me want to put a line through everything that day)
The New One (25/1 tempted perhaps but happy to leave for now... unexposed at the trip but is a Grade 2 horse even at best?)
Jezki (33/1 ... might run tempted perhaps ... although chance surely gone last year)
Wholestone 33/1 (looks well held on form although I like him....)
Let's Dance and Colins Sister.... former will surely go OLGB, latter well held...
Cole Harden 50/1 ... got to stop somewhere!

...................

No rush to act tonight I suppose, nothing likely to happen for a week or so.

I seee the race a bit differently to yourself Kev. I'd give jezki no chance.
Id also give the new one zero chance. Dosent stay 3 miles.

Nichols canyon 7/1
Unwimh 9/1
Cilaos emery 85.0
Let's dance 103.0
Vroum vroum mag 210.0
Tin soldier 400.0
Thistle crack 55.0 < 29.0
Supasundae ew 20/1 backed today.

Will go there with complete confidence with that book.

[Kevloaf]

You don't know TNO doesn't stay 3 miles yet.... and I haven't backed either to be fair, and don't think I will for the time-being.

What are you seeing differently? I've just got a couple of others covered .... much closer to the time I'll lay off my stake on the ones I don't fancy..... that is the plan at this stage anyway