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Originally posted by Kevloaf
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Number of runs leading up to winning the Albert Bartlett
2017 - 16/1 - Penhill - 25 runs (18 flat, 7 hurdle)
2016 - 11/1 - Unowhatimeanharry - 17 runs (all hurdles)
2015 - 14/1- Martello Tower - 9 runs- (1 PTP, 2 bumper, 6 hurdles)
2014 - 33/1 - Very Wood - 7 runs - (2 PTP, 1 bumper, 4 hurdles)
2013 - 11/8f - At Fishers Cross - 8 runs (2 bumper, 6 hurdles)
2012 - 7/1 - Brindisi Breeze - 6 runs (2 PTP, 1 bumper, 3 hurdles)
2011 - 15/8f Bobs Worth - 5 runs (2 bumper, 3 hurdles)
2010 - 33/1 - Berties Dream - 15 runs (1 bumper, 14 hurdles)
2009 - 8/1 - Weapon's Amnesty 8/1 - 6 runs (2 bumper, 4 hurdle)
2008 - 9/1 - Nenuphar Collonges 9/1 - 11 runs (3 flat, 8 hurdles)
2007 - 11/8f - Wichita Lineman - 8 runs (4 flat, 4 hurdles)
2006 - 1/1f - Black Jack Kethum - 5 runs (2 bumper, 3 hurdle)
2005 - 9/1 - Moulin Riche - 15 runs (2 flat, 13 hurdle)
Average of 10.5 runs prior to the race for each winner.
2x horses have both won with 5 runs or less (Bobs Worth and Black Jack Kethum - both went off favourite)
All 4 winning favourites had 8 runs or less
Horses with double figures for number of runs have won at 9/1, 9/1, 33/1, 11/1, 16/1
Looking at the runners near the top of the market...
Cracking Smart - 7 runs (1 flat, 6 hurdles)
Santini - 3 runs (1 PTP, 2 hurdle)
Duc Des Genievres - 3 runs (3 hurdles)
Next Destination - 7 runs (1 PTP, 3 bumper, 3 hurdles)
Chef Des Obeaux - 7 runs (3 bumper, 4 hurdles)
Poetic Rhythm - 16 runs (6 PTP, 3 flat, 7 hurdles)
Red River - 4 runs (1 PTP, 3 hurdles)
Mr Whipped - 5 runs (1 PTP, 4 hurdles)
Ballyward - 4 runs (1 PTP, 1 bumper, 2 hurdles)
Calett Mad - 15 runs (8 hurdle, 7 chases)
Chris's Dream - 7 runs (1 PTP, 3 Bumper, 3 hurdle)
Dortmund Park - 6 runs (2 bumper, 4 hurdles)
Carter McKay - 9 runs (2 PTP, 4 bumper, 3 hurdles)
(bored of going down the list now.... will add more / alter this as we get closer to the decs)
Despite all of this, I am not really one to follow the trends because every race/horse is different.... Santini may be sensastional in years to come... however it would put me off that he (and DDG) are the least experienced horses in the field, when this race (much moreso than the Supreme or Ballymore) has had winners who a much more exposed (over 8+ runs)...
Kinloch Brae - you said that it is hardly conculsive that experience is a massive factor... I suppose that depends on where the line is drawn on experience....
If we use the data above for the race though, it looks like 5 runs is the cut off for how much experience you need.... but trends are there to be broken
2017 - 16/1 - Penhill - 25 runs (18 flat, 7 hurdle)
2016 - 11/1 - Unowhatimeanharry - 17 runs (all hurdles)
2015 - 14/1- Martello Tower - 9 runs- (1 PTP, 2 bumper, 6 hurdles)
2014 - 33/1 - Very Wood - 7 runs - (2 PTP, 1 bumper, 4 hurdles)
2013 - 11/8f - At Fishers Cross - 8 runs (2 bumper, 6 hurdles)
2012 - 7/1 - Brindisi Breeze - 6 runs (2 PTP, 1 bumper, 3 hurdles)
2011 - 15/8f Bobs Worth - 5 runs (2 bumper, 3 hurdles)
2010 - 33/1 - Berties Dream - 15 runs (1 bumper, 14 hurdles)
2009 - 8/1 - Weapon's Amnesty 8/1 - 6 runs (2 bumper, 4 hurdle)
2008 - 9/1 - Nenuphar Collonges 9/1 - 11 runs (3 flat, 8 hurdles)
2007 - 11/8f - Wichita Lineman - 8 runs (4 flat, 4 hurdles)
2006 - 1/1f - Black Jack Kethum - 5 runs (2 bumper, 3 hurdle)
2005 - 9/1 - Moulin Riche - 15 runs (2 flat, 13 hurdle)
Average of 10.5 runs prior to the race for each winner.
2x horses have both won with 5 runs or less (Bobs Worth and Black Jack Kethum - both went off favourite)
All 4 winning favourites had 8 runs or less
Horses with double figures for number of runs have won at 9/1, 9/1, 33/1, 11/1, 16/1
Looking at the runners near the top of the market...
Cracking Smart - 7 runs (1 flat, 6 hurdles)
Santini - 3 runs (1 PTP, 2 hurdle)
Duc Des Genievres - 3 runs (3 hurdles)
Next Destination - 7 runs (1 PTP, 3 bumper, 3 hurdles)
Chef Des Obeaux - 7 runs (3 bumper, 4 hurdles)
Poetic Rhythm - 16 runs (6 PTP, 3 flat, 7 hurdles)
Red River - 4 runs (1 PTP, 3 hurdles)
Mr Whipped - 5 runs (1 PTP, 4 hurdles)
Ballyward - 4 runs (1 PTP, 1 bumper, 2 hurdles)
Calett Mad - 15 runs (8 hurdle, 7 chases)
Chris's Dream - 7 runs (1 PTP, 3 Bumper, 3 hurdle)
Dortmund Park - 6 runs (2 bumper, 4 hurdles)
Carter McKay - 9 runs (2 PTP, 4 bumper, 3 hurdles)
(bored of going down the list now.... will add more / alter this as we get closer to the decs)
Despite all of this, I am not really one to follow the trends because every race/horse is different.... Santini may be sensastional in years to come... however it would put me off that he (and DDG) are the least experienced horses in the field, when this race (much moreso than the Supreme or Ballymore) has had winners who a much more exposed (over 8+ runs)...
Kinloch Brae - you said that it is hardly conculsive that experience is a massive factor... I suppose that depends on where the line is drawn on experience....
If we use the data above for the race though, it looks like 5 runs is the cut off for how much experience you need.... but trends are there to be broken
Interestingly, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th ALL had less than 5 starts... Ok Corral, Santini and Ballyward. I'd be happy to go on record saying I expect all 3 of those to end up hiogher rated than Kilbricken Storm... so while I think you'd be crazy to follow a trend blindly, and the fact 2nd/3rd/4th all ran well despite "not having enough experience" they all fell short... I'll certainly be looking at this trend again next year...
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