Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle 2018

[Scooby91]

I must admit I see him as a real 2 miler!

See Patrick has said they hope Next Destination turns out to be a Ballymore horse.... Which is at odds with what PP think.

If he is .
And huge ask but he wins this well.
Surely deserves to be shorter than samcro???

[Can't Catch Me]

If he is .
And huge ask but he wins this well.
Surely deserves to be shorter than samcro???

Yeah if he wins this well, he should be fav for the race, no doubt. Have a feeling the Samcro hype machine won't see that happen though.

[Can't Catch Me]

Patrick's quote:

"We are hoping at this stage that he might make into a horse for the Ballymore Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham and we'll find out a bit more after Sunday".

Samcro's well being will certainly affect their decision I imagine.

[Scooby91]

Patrick's quote:

"We are hoping at this stage that he might make into a horse for the Ballymore Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham and we'll find out a bit more after Sunday".

Samcro's well being will certainly affect their decision I imagine.

If they win this (big if) why would they be scared to take on samcro? they've done far more than him.

Very unlikely samcro makes any difference to mullins plans he's had and taken on plenty of horses of samcros stature

[Kevloaf]

What set of events would we need to see to get Next Destination in the Ballymore now?

If he gets beaten?

If he wins they'll not be scared to take on Samcro, as ND's form will be in the book and Mullins has plenty for either race.

[Robbante]

The only horse we can consider currently for collateral form between ND and Samcro is Jetz. Over the same trip and ground Samcro beat him 12 lengths, ND beat him 7 and a quarter lengths. Samcro's win over Jetz was also far more visually impressive, he was hardly touched. Jetz reopposes of course on Sunday so can assess proximity to ND again

[Can't Catch Me]

If they win this (big if) why would they be scared to take on samcro? they've done far more than him.

Very unlikely samcro makes any difference to mullins plans he's had and taken on plenty of horses of samcros stature

But you and I both subscribe to the PP theory and they seem to think he's AB bound no?

[Scooby91]

But you and I both subscribe to the PP theory and they seem to think he's AB bound no?

That isn't my only consideration. I wouldn't want to lay him for the Albert Bartlett. But if he wins this there's no way id want to lay him for the ballymore
If it was nrnb I make him a 11/2 6/1 for the ballymore. If he wins this by a couple of lengths of make him a 9/4 shot for the ballymore. The only reason samcro is so short is weight of public money not because of form.

ND is by no means a 1/2 shot in this race. I'd have to upgrade him considerably for winning this.

[Robbante]

All depends who he beats into 2nd and 3rd and distances as to whether i'd upgrade him or not. He's already beaten Cracking Smart comfortably, so presumably the only horse we can judge him against (looking at the odds) is Speak Easy? Impossible to judge that one's form to date really as he's unraced at this trip

[Can't Catch Me]

That isn't my only consideration. I wouldn't want to lay him for the Albert Bartlett. But if he wins this there's no way id want to lay him for the ballymore
If it was nrnb I make him a 11/2 6/1 for the ballymore. If he wins this by a couple of lengths of make him a 9/4 shot for the ballymore. The only reason samcro is so short is weight of public money not because of form.

ND is by no means a 1/2 shot in this race. I'd have to upgrade him considerably for winning this.

I agree with all of that.

But I'm talking more about the relative chances of him running in either race, rather than his relative chances of winning either. I will fancy him wherever he goes. Clearly he will shorten for both if he wins this impressively, as he should, as it will represent a good step up and his best form yet.

But will they want to give him the best chance of winning at the Festival, which is definitely the AB, or take on this race? I still think ND and Getabird are his two best and will be split up and of these two, ND looks like he would stay the 3m better.

[Robbante]

That isn't my only consideration. I wouldn't want to lay him for the Albert Bartlett. But if he wins this there's no way id want to lay him for the ballymore
If it was nrnb I make him a 11/2 6/1 for the ballymore. If he wins this by a couple of lengths of make him a 9/4 shot for the ballymore. The only reason samcro is so short is weight of public money not because of form.

ND is by no means a 1/2 shot in this race. I'd have to upgrade him considerably for winning this.

What do you know of Duc Des Genievres?

[Scooby91]

I agree with all of that.

But I'm talking more about the relative chances of him running in either race, rather than his relative chances of winning either. I will fancy him wherever he goes. Clearly he will shorten for both if he wins this impressively, as he should, as it will represent a good step up and his best form yet.

But will they want to give him the best chance of winning at the Festival, which is definitely the AB, or take on this race? I still think ND and Getabird are his two best and will be split up and of these two, ND looks like he would stay the 3m better.

The way i see his pp price is anything but a victory he would go bartlett. You have yo take into account his chances of winning this race. Ofcourse you'd want to lay him right now as a bookmaker for the ballymore because it's a very deep race there's every chance for something to put it up to him as you have them all there to beat.
If he wins this well that's a whole different matter. Within a couple of days id expect them to go top price the Albert bartlett. With him booking his place as the one going into the ballymore with the best form in the book.

[Kevloaf]

I agree with all of that.

But I'm talking more about the relative chances of him running in either race, rather than his relative chances of winning either. I will fancy him wherever he goes. Clearly he will shorten for both if he wins this impressively, as he should, as it will represent a good step up and his best form yet.

But will they want to give him the best chance of winning at the Festival, which is definitely the AB, or take on this race? I still think ND and Getabird are his two best and will be split up and of these two, ND looks like he would stay the 3m better.

As bumper horses Getabird was preferred (shorter in the betting for the Cheltenham race). Do you think that was a true reflection or will the fact Getabird was a Ricci horse have skewed it slightly?

ND looked to have improved on his bumper form though.

[Can't Catch Me]

As bumper horses Getabird was preferred (shorter in the betting for the Cheltenham race). Do you think that was a true reflection or will the fact Getabird was a Ricci horse have skewed it slightly?

ND looked to have improved on his bumper form though.

Ive no idea tbh Kev. We can only guess. But as we know Ruby will want to ride the 3 best novices in the 3 novice races...

[Scooby91]

What do you know of Duc Des Genievres?

Not much tbh,
his French novice hurdle (in may) was full of newcomers he obviously won that. Nothing much has ran since that got near him. They say they like him and he works well.... complete guess from my end. Wouldn't expect him to win, But wouldn't be a huge shock.