Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle 2018

[Geordieboy83]

I would not trust Mullins as far as I could throw him and I'm a skinny bloke..

Very true indeed. I have to decide wether to cash out ticket for AB, oh the joys of ante-post

[ComplyOrDie]

Another horse to bring up if we went solely on the basis that the more runs the better for any horse in this race then surely Poetic Rhythm must go with a chance, currently a 16/1 shot?

He has run in 10 races under rules, 14 including his PTP races, 1 less than Calett Mad overall.

He spent last season chasing the shadows of the likes of Pingshou, Coo Star Sivola, Wholestone & Willoughby Court (in the Neptune, so has raced at the festival before).

Despite winning only twice this season his overall profile and form (including last season) has a really solid feel about it.

Just to run through some of the the form, his run in the Neptune last season can be excused for sure, he was badly hampered at the same time as Bacardys, probably more so than Barcardys was too, and from that moment on was never a threat, at a trip I feel was probably too short, Barcardys obviously now runs in the Stayers' whilst PR can run in this having not won any of the fairly hot races he ran in last season. This season is another story though, winning 2 and coming 3rd of his 3 starts so far, his wins being at trips still probably too short IMO, but still managing to grind them out, all 3 races contested this season have been graded races, and have pretty much produced winners from all of them. His defeat by On The Blind Side at Cheltenham in November is really good form, given OTBS is now joint 2nd fav for the Ballymore, and much is expected of him. Within that race PR still finished 24 3/4 lengths ahead of none other than Callett Mad!! In the race description PR was described as 'not pace of winner closing stages' which is hardly surprising given OTBS's turn of foot, but more so that PR should not be a 2m 4f horse.

On ratings, PR has just 2lb's to find with Santini & Chef Des Obeaux, but finds himself on the same rating as Cracking Smart (on his Irish rating) and is 3lb ahead of Duc Des Genievres, yet his price is a lot more generous that the aforementioned horses.

There is every chance, in fact, IMO, it's guaranteed, that this step up to 3m will mean he improves beyond his current rating of 148, that said I also think Santini will improve for the step up in trip too, but PR has the experience and the battling qualities to see this out better IMO.

Anyway, that's my case for PR, for a race I don't have anything significant in just yet, as it looks as though Next Destination will not be running in it anymore.

[Sirbetalot]

Very true indeed. I have to decide wether to cash out ticket for AB, oh the joys of ante-post

Could you not cash out and re back him NRNB? or has the value gone for that?

[Geordieboy83]

Value gone now mate. Might just use the cash out as bullets for other bets

[Istabraq]

Solid argument CorD, that isn't one that escaped my attention but to have had 10 visits to a racecourse and never gone further than 21f I am assuming FOB doesn't see him as a 3m horse or he would have tried him already ?
Guaranteed stamina is my new approach to this and by that I need to see at least 2 x 3m runs in the book without looking a non stayer....

[ComplyOrDie]

Solid argument CorD, that isn't one that escaped my attention but to have had 10 visits to a racecourse and never gone further than 21f I am assuming FOB doesn't see him as a 3m horse or he would have tried him already ?
Guaranteed stamina is my new approach to this and by that I need to see at least 2 x 3m runs in the book without looking a non stayer....

I must admit, the lack of a 3m run had me perplexed too that he had been entered in this race, but maybe there is a reason....we will see at the festival, but have added him to my book tonight

[Scooby91]

I must admit, the lack of a 3m run had me perplexed too that he had been entered in this race, but maybe there is a reason....we will see at the festival, but have added him to my book tonight

This has been his target all season ever since the Persian war.

[ComplyOrDie]

This has been his target all season ever since the Persian war.

On breeding I can't see him having a problem staying the trip tbh, it's just always nice to know prior to the race!

[Cashew King]

I’ve got a bit on Poetic Rhythm too at 33s from earlier in the season. The reason I backed it earlier is you always find 1 race a season where the form turns out to be ‘golden’ and it’s worth not just following the winner but the beaten horses too - as they’re almost under-rated for being beaten. For me that ‘golden’ race was at Cheltenham in November & it’s stood me in good stead so far.

1st On The Blind Side (IRE) 11-0 Nico de Boinville N J Henderson 5 9/2
Tracked leaders, ridden after 2 out, chased front pair towards stands side before last, switched left flat, led and stayed on well closing stages opened 3/1 touched 9/2
2nd 2½ Momella (IRE) 10-7 Harry Skelton D Skelton 5 7/1
Tracked leaders, led narrowly between last 2, ridden after last, kept on until headed and not pace of winner closing stages opened 7/1 touched 15/2
3rd nse Poetic Rhythm (IRE) 11-5 P J Brennan F M O'Brien 6 9/2
Tracked leader, led narrowly 4 out, headed narrowly last, ridden and every chance flat, kept on, not pace of winner closing stages opened 11/2 touched 11/2
4th 22 Vision Des Flos (FR) 11-0 B J Cooper C L Tizzard 4 3/1
Held up behind, headway to track leaders 3 out, soon outpaced, well beaten after next opened 7/2 touched 4/1
5th 2¾ Calett Mad (FR) 11-0 D A Jacob N A Twiston-Davies 5 7/4f
Led, headed narrowly 4 out, driven and lost place after 2 out, soon ridden and weakened opened 2/1 touched 2/1

Long may it continue!

[Kevloaf]

Interesting points on Poetic Rhythm CorD and CK. I have 1 pt e/w at 28/1 shortly after that 3rd to OTBS. You are right that the form does look good, as Momella(2nd), Vision Des Flos(4th) and Calett Mad(5th) all have won at least once since.

I read this thread last night and checked his price and thought 16/1 was too short to back at the current price though... just because I think it isn't an "each way" kind of race, as there are loads who you can give place claims too...

[kinloch brae]

I have had a good few returns off Poetic Rhythm but I get the impression that each time he is exceeding expectations. This looks like a step too far.

I am struggling with this theory that you need to have run a million times to win it. I backed Bobs Worth, At Fishers Cross and Brindisi Breeze and none of those would have fitted that theory. That were all lightly raced and progressive.

[Kevloaf]

I have had a good few returns off Poetic Rhythm but I get the impression that each time he is exceeding expectations. This looks like a step too far.

I am struggling with this theory that you need to have run a million times to win it. I backed Bobs Worth, At Fishers Cross and Brindisi Breeze and none of those would have fitted that theory. That were all lightly raced and progressive.

At Fishers Cross - 9 career runs
Brindisi Breeze - 7 career runs
Bobs Worth - 6 career runs

Would be Santini's 4th, Cracking Smart's 8th

Bob's Worth was a top class horse with a smashing attitude (never headed once he hit the frot is one of my favourite "stats" when he won the Gold Cup!

The "theory" though is that you need a battle-hardened horse or horse with plenty of experience to win the race.... that isn't a struggle to see?

[Robbante]

Happy to have Poetic Rhythm onside but if there is to be a trendbuster then it could be Santini. That win over Black Op puts him clear of On The Blind Side for me as Henderson’s best novice... the fact he’s mentioned the gold cup already for the horse shows how special they think he could be

[Kevloaf]

Happy to have Poetic Rhythm onside but if there is to be a trendbuster then it could be Santini. That win over Black Op puts him clear of On The Blind Side for me as Henderson’s best novice... the fact he’s mentioned the gold cup already for the horse shows how special they think he could be

Yes, that is true.

Santini will NEED to be special to win it...

I was originally against him based on him being inexperienced and decided to back NRNB as HEnderson seemed to be coming round to the idea. I am glad to have him onside HOWEVER if I didn't, I think I'd be banging the experience drum a little harder saying that for a market leader, he would need to be as good as Bobs Worth... and that is some ask?

[ComplyOrDie]

Happy to have Poetic Rhythm onside but if there is to be a trendbuster then it could be Santini. That win over Black Op puts him clear of On The Blind Side for me as Henderson’s best novice... the fact he’s mentioned the gold cup already for the horse shows how special they think he could be

Yeah agree about Santini, which is why he was mentioned in my original post about PR, so will probably look to have 3 on side before the race goes off.

Added one last night (PR), have CS in a couple of multi's but that's it, and Santini will be added for sure. Also have Calett Mad 'any race' ticket too.