Champion Chase 2018

[Kevloaf]

Are these Andy Holding speed figures? I know he's tipped Min on oddschecker too. I assume you subscribe DBUK?

[Istabraq]

I love seeing/hearing different views and opinions but I’m not too familiar with Holdings methods but just looking at the figures you post I find it strange he would give Politilogue a higher speed rating for his Exeter run than Altior for his Sandown performance.
Is there a view he’s beating up on sub standard opposition ?
Ultimately he’s demolished the hottest Supreme field since Champagne Fevers win and won an Arkle by considerable daylight, what makes this game so intriguing is how we all see races/horses differently and what makes it so much fun to debate, but until he regresses I’m of the view Altior is a very special horse and can be talked about in the same league as Remittance Man, Sprinter Sacre, Moscow Flyer and Master Minded should he win in 4 weeks

[DBUK]

They certainly are mate yes, im a big AH fan and I find his figures very reliable, changed my punting life. I dont always agree with Andy though, he has said he believes Min to be better than Douvan .. I dont see that quite yet but we will see.

I compiled that list by going through old downloads of his figures and dropped him an email; (and updated it since).. I asked his opinion on my thoughts to the effect of I couldnt see many turning up with many listed in the market having other targets, potentially a 6 horse race with question marks over Douvan, Min available to back at Each Way prices with Antepost terms of 3 places, my view was he only needed to beat 3 of them home with very realistic win prospects too. He responded with a little wink and said watch out of my piece on odds checker in the next couple of weeks.

[DBUK]

what makes this game so intriguing is how we all see races/horses differently and what makes it so much fun to debate

Here here!

[robith]

I love seeing/hearing different views and opinions but I’m not too familiar with Holdings methods but just looking at the figures you post I find it strange he would give Politilogue a higher speed rating for his Exeter run than Altior for his Sandown performance.
Is there a view he’s beating up on sub standard opposition ?
Ultimately he’s demolished the hottest Supreme field since Champagne Fevers win and won an Arkle by considerable daylight, what makes this game so intriguing is how we all see races/horses differently and what makes it so much fun to debate, but until he regresses I’m of the view Altior is a very special horse and can be talked about in the same league as Remittance Man, Sprinter Sacre, Moscow Flyer and Master Minded should he win in 4 weeks

Yes, at the beginning of last season I had the view Min could reverse the form over fences, but since then I've seen nothing to suggest anything in the division can beat him as long as he's upright

[KingSprinterSacre]

Douvan entered on Sat in the Red Mills. He must be starting to please them. Would love if he ran this weekend but would doubt it

[jono]

Douvan entered on Sat in the Red Mills. He must be starting to please them. Would love if he ran this weekend but would doubt it

Unexpected to say the least! I would say it's doubtful just because the time scales were so tight for even getting him to Cheltenham. My last post in here said how I thought they would be discouraged to bring him back after Altiors last run but the comments in this suggest I was talking nonsense! That said I think it would be very hard to pitch him first time out in the Champion Chase against Altior so if they could somehow get a run out with him beforehand...

[Folski]

Unexpected to say the least! I would say it's doubtful just because the time scales were so tight for even getting him to Cheltenham. My last post in here said how I thought they would be discouraged to bring him back after Altiors last run but the comments in this suggest I was talking nonsense! That said I think it would be very hard to pitch him first time out in the Champion Chase against Altior so if they could somehow get a run out with him beforehand...

Would be very surprised if he ran. Mullins hasn't ruled it out, the weather in Ireland has been brutal the last few days. Bad ground and 2.5miles can't see it myself. Is there any other Grade 2 opportunity for him between now and the festival. Newlands Chase (G2 at Naas) is the only one I can see. It takes place on 25th of February which leaves just 17 days till the QMCC.

[jono]

Yeah that's the last rave I have down before the festival

[KingSprinterSacre]

The Willie Mullins-trained eight-year-old was one of ten entries for the Grade 2 Red Mills Chase unveiled on Tuesday, and Mullins reported: "I decided to enter Douvan for Saturday but I'll wait a couple of days before deciding if he'll run. We're very happy with the way he's been working."

[Al Ferof]

Anyone else think Mullins and Rocco have been pulling a fast one with Douvan all along?

IF...and it is still an IF...Douvan runs in the Champion Chase, what happens to Min?

OR...is Douvan the Willie Ryanair horse?

[ComplyOrDie]

Anyone else think Mullins and Rocco have been pulling a fast one with Douvan all along?

IF...and it is still an IF...Douvan runs in the Champion Chase, what happens to Min?

OR...is Douvan the Willie Ryanair horse?

Them 2? Never.

It's not as if they have a history of horses ending up in the Ryanair at the last minute.....

[Hurricane fly]

No matter where Douvan ends up he will have my money behind him.

Incredible how everyone acts like he straight up lost - ignoring a pretty big injury - and acts like the last 3 years of dominance haven’t been a thing.

[opatcho]

No matter where Douvan ends up he will have my money behind him.

Incredible how everyone acts like he straight up lost - ignoring a pretty big injury - and acts like the last 3 years of dominance haven’t been a thing.

.... really?

Sprinter Sacre was far more dominate than Douvan but it took Sprinter a full season finishing Special Tiara and Dodging Bullets before he came back to winning races
What makes you think mullins has Douvan back to working order? He’s been off a year and missed his initial come back day

Faugheen pretty much in a similar position - appreciate Douvan is younger and some may say he has a more realistic chance of coming back on a mark closer to his best. But still, that’s a big ask

Asking s horse to come back from a fairly significant injury, run once 3 weeks prior to the festival and then rock up to win it - hmmmmmm

Altior wasn’t off as long as Douvan, and his recovery wasn’t dogged by complications. Even so, I expect Altior to run 3-4lbs below his best. I’d expect douvan to be even further back

He has a lot to prove! Despite what he did back in 2016 and 2015

[Hurricane fly]

Part of it is Mullins has shown that he has no problem putting a horse away until he is 100% happy e.g Faugheen who they had revved up last year but never made it to a race course. I don’t think Douvan makes the festival unless they think he can run at 170+

I don’t think you can compare Douvan and SS(SS Melling Chase win is still the most impressive performance I’ve ever seen) injuries, a broken bone and a heart problem are very different. Like I say though it just gripes me how pundits will say “until he lost” as if there wasn’t a perfectly good reason why he lost! I think he could end up an e/w price as Altior gets backed off the boards and I’d be happy to take on Altior if so.