Champion Chase 2018

[Robbante]

Charbel did look to have him at it last year. He was super impressive the weekend. When he won the Arkle last year I immediately thought King George.

I can't remember seeing him more impressive than at the weekend, it might be that the wind op has brought about improvement - if so then it's a done deal and he wins. He's been almost unbackable all year though really at the prices, and there is enough doubt there on the bounce factor and track that at the prices i'd rather chance Min as a single. Have altior in a couple of doubles with Buveur D'air and Apples Jade so hoping there will be something rolling onto him to have him covered

[Hurricane fly]

Interesting stat posted in the lay thread.

Horses who have been off 275+ days who are running with 40 days of their reappearence are 1 win out of 106

I imagine a lot of those may be handicappers but still interesting to me

[Folski]

Interesting stat posted in the lay thread.

Horses who have been off 275+ days who are running with 40 days of their reappearence are 1 win out of 106

I imagine a lot of those may be handicappers but still interesting to me

Would be very interesting to see the 106 and their odds, age, profile etc.

Can't think of any obvious qualifier off the top of my head.

[Kevloaf]

Reasons why I think it is possible Min could overturn the form with Altior result in a bit of study I did in the Supreme a few years back.

Off the top of my head horses who would have been within 10L of the champion hurdle based on time that were 5 at the time.

2016 - Min
2016 - Buveur D'Air (Champion Hurdler)
2015 - Douvan
2015 - Sizing John (Gold Cup winner)
2014 - Vautour (Ryanair winner)
2013 - Jezki (Champion hurdler)
2011 - Spirit Son
2011 - Sprinter Sacre (Champion Chaser)

Of the three who haven't won a major festival race Spirit Son won the G1 at Aintree before succumbing to a rare disease, next seasons Champion Hurdle was won by Rock On Ruby and I think he'd have been bang there. We all know how good Douvan is and few would doubt he would have won QMCC last year if he was right. Min is the only other, yes he was beat 7L by Altior. Jezki was smashed a similar distance by the Tent.

I'm not saying he will win but this is a very interesting trend.

Aren't you missing Altior off that list though? As the Arkle winner? Which doesn't add to min's chances?

[DBUK]

Im not sure why everyone is so confident Altior will beat Min in the CC. There is only 3lbs between them on Official Ratings Altior 170, Min 167. Min recorded his best every RPR of 176 this season at Leopardstown, where as Altior's best RPR 177 was April 2017. Again not much between them according to the racing post but id rather be with recent form. Most interestingly, Altior's best AH Speed rating of 79 was recorded in Nov 2016. Min recorded his best ever 81 on his most recent race. For comparison Douvan's best was 88. I think Altior's return race isn't anything to be excited about, on the face of Politologue's form you might rate it quite highly, but scratch beneath the surface and Politologue just isn't as good as his form looks on paper, his Kempton run producing a 69 AH Speed Rating, and his best being 75. Also the suggestion that Ordinary World would have given Min a real race if he hadnt made mistake.. that horse had just made up a lot of ground to get as close to Min who was travelling with his head in his chest out in front.. I don't see how Ordianry Word's effort would have been sustained to challenge a quickening Min.. And anyone of that opinion must also think that Charbel would have given Altior a real race in the Arkle. So in summary the actual evidence puts them close together than the betting, im also encouraged to see by another poster Timeform have them close together.. yet all I hear (possibly not on this forum) is how Altior is going to beat him by half the track. I actually fancy Min to turn Altior over, I hope so as Min is my biggest winner too!

[Middle_Of_March]

Im not sure why everyone is so confident Altior will beat Min in the CC. There is only 3lbs between them on Official Ratings Altior 170, Min 167. Min recorded his best every RPR of 176 this season at Leopardstown, where as Altior's best RPR 177 was April 2017. Again not much between them according to the racing post but id rather be with recent form. Most interestingly, Altior's best AH Speed rating of 79 was recorded in Nov 2016. Min recorded his best ever 81 on his most recent race. For comparison Douvan's best was 88. I think Altior's return race isn't anything to be excited about, on the face of Politologue's form you might rate it quite highly, but scratch beneath the surface and Politologue just isn't as good as his form looks on paper, his Kempton run producing a 69 AH Speed Rating, and his best being 75. Also the suggestion that Ordinary World would have given Min a real race if he hadnt made mistake.. that horse had just made up a lot of ground to get as close to Min who was travelling with his head in his chest out in front.. I don't see how Ordianry Word's effort would have been sustained to challenge a quickening Min.. And anyone of that opinion must also think that Charbel would have given Altior a real race in the Arkle. So in summary the actual evidence puts them close together than the betting, im also encouraged to see by another poster Timeform have them close together.. yet all I hear (possibly not on this forum) is how Altior is going to beat him by half the track. I actually fancy Min to turn Altior over, I hope so as Min is my biggest winner too!

The official ratings and the RPR are a load of nonsense if they think there’s that little between Altior and Min. Altior is far superior to anything that will line up in the CC - assuming Douvan doesn’t run.

I think Altior would beat Douvan tbh but Min... he will beat Min on the bridle

[Robbante]

Irish media reporting Douvan will run in champion chase... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.i...658%3fmode=amp

[Robbante]

Irish media reporting Douvan will run in champion chase... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.i...658%3fmode=amp

Will be aimed at it rather than run in it. All depends on how they’re looking in the days before I’d assume

[Can't Catch Me]

Irish media reporting Douvan will run in champion chase... https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.i...658%3fmode=amp

Interesting. Wonder what that means for Min? Wouldn't actually be surprised if RR decides to run them both this time considering the doubts over Douvan. And considering Willie has Yorkhill and UDS for the Ryanair.

[Robbante]

Interesting. Wonder what that means for Min? Wouldn't actually be surprised if RR decides to run them both this time considering the doubts over Douvan. And considering Willie has Yorkhill and UDS for the Ryanair.

Mullins would want it to work out like that I’m sure, Ricci bound to want a chance of winning both races?

[Can't Catch Me]

Mullins would want it to work out like that I’m sure, Ricci bound to want a chance of winning both races?

Yeah I suppose so. Would like to be a fly on the wall for that little conversation!

[Robbante]

Yeah I suppose so. Would like to be a fly on the wall for that little conversation!

Biggest conundrum yet if Douvan is fit. Those 4 horses spread across two races just seems unlikely

[Istabraq]

The official ratings and the RPR are a load of nonsense if they think there’s that little between Altior and Min. Altior is far superior to anything that will line up in the CC - assuming Douvan doesn’t run.

I think Altior would beat Douvan tbh but Min... he will beat Min on the bridle

Ratings for chaser in their novice year, or shortly into their second season chasing, are generally wrong on the top horses because they haven't yet had the opportunity to prove themselves.

The yardstick in DBUKs message was Douvan, I'd be interested to know what Douvans speed rating was at the same stage of his career because he was rated 161 after his Arkle win and 169 after his Punchestown win and he was generally regarded as a superstar at this time last year....

[Kevloaf]

Patrick Mullins on the RP podcast had no doubt that if Douvan turned up he'd be the number 1.

If i fancied Min I couldn't dream of leaving Douvan unbacked at 9/2 NRNB when it's blindly obvious he's a better horse AND a bigger price.

[DBUK]

I dont think this will format very well but its worth a try

HORSE NAME SPEED RATING COURSE RPR RATING RESULT

Politologue 69 Kempton 170 1
Politologue 74 Sandown 170 1
Politologue 75 Exeter 167 1
Politologue - Aintree 160 F
Politologue 51 Cheltenha 154 4
Politologue 31 Kempton 148 1
Politologue 56 Haydock 158 2
Politologue 67 Ascot 153 1

Altior 74 Sandown 177 1
Altior 72 Cheltenha 168 1
Altior 74 Newbury 175 1
Altior 69 Kempton 167 1
Altior 69 Sandown 169 1
Altior 79 Kempton 160 1

Min 81 Leopardstown 176 1
Min 72 Leopardstown 162 1/2
Min 80 Gowran Park 165 1
Min 79 Leopardstown 160 1
Min 70 Navan 147 1

Douvan 70 Punchestown 170 1
Douvan 69 Leopardstown 178 1
Douvan 78 Cork 178 1
Douvan 71 Punchestown 171 1
Douvan 88 Aintree 176 1
Douvan 80 Cheltenham 165 1
Douvan 76 Leopardstown 161 1
Douvan 82 Leopardstown 170 1