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I think it's nearly impossible to have a strong view either way at this stage, as you say on old form they are so closely matched. Hard to know what kind of results Altior's wind op will yield, if it makes him better than ever then he is most likely the winner. All I'll say is however, Altior showed in the Arkle last year that he is capable of looking vulnerable. I still think Altior would have pulled out enough to beat Charbel had he stayed on his feet, but Charbel did look like he was going to make a real race of it. Maybe Cheltenham just isn't his favourite track, but that certainly wasn't telling in the Supreme.
Douvan on the other hand, barring the Champion Chase where he was carrying an injury, has never once looked vulnerable in any of his races. He's never once looked like he might be beaten. My point is, we have seen that Altior can be got at, that there are horses out there that can go with him and give him a race. The same cannot be said for Douvan, nothing has ever gotten him off the bridle over fences. Watch both races again and compare Douvan at the top of the hill in the Arkle to Altior, Ruby sitting motionless, Nico hard at work. That's without comparing the horses in behind. Beating Sizing John surely must be better form than beating Charbel and Cloudy Dream, even over 2 miles.
I know a lot of people will disagree but that is my honest assessment.
The Tingle Creek will reveal a lot, because I think Fox Norton is as good a marker as you'll get for the state of this division. At the moment, a peak Altior vs a peak Douvan, I'd be edging slightly towards the latter. At the prices even more so, but I won't be investing in any singles on either just yet.
It’s a valid point, Tingle Creek will be revealing if it is a match up between Fox Norton and Douvan. I’m probably placing too much sway on potential Altior improvement and that’s got to be a bit of an unknown. I would love to see Yorkhill in here, would rate him as a really good chance to beat them both at this trip over fences
I think both Douvan's Arkle was similar in a way to Altior's Montjeu... Vaniteaux got to Douvan and Ruby did have to react albeit I'm certain he would have won easily ... but that's how I see the Altior race too. I think Altior would have won either of those Arkle's and Douvan would too.
The thing I'm struggling with is how Fox Norton can be so sorry based on his Arkle form ... I can't think of a horse that looks like he's improved so much out of novice company. I'd be staggered if FN beat either, in any race ... but better judges than me (Rory Delargy being one) have him down as a great price and bet for the CC even now
Robante - no way will Yorkhill go Tingle Creek, he'll never run right handed again EVER !!
Sorry didn't mean Tingle Creek, I meant Champion Chase! If i were Wylie I would think he would have more chance of winning the Champion Chase than the Gold Cup, but I assume no chance Willie/Ruby would have Douvan pitched against Yorkhill
I think both Douvan's Arkle was similar in a way to Altior's Montjeu... Vaniteaux got to Douvan and Ruby did have to react albeit I'm certain he would have won easily ... but that's how I see the Altior race too. I think Altior would have won either of those Arkle's and Douvan would too.
The thing I'm struggling with is how Fox Norton can be so sorry based on his Arkle form ... I can't think of a horse that looks like he's improved so much out of novice company. I'd be staggered if FN beat either, in any race ... but better judges than me (Rory Delargy being one) have him down as a great price and bet for the CC even now
That's another conundrum. I'm dismissing Fox Norton just because he's been put in his place by both comfortably in the past - to be a great price for the CC at the price he is now you would have to say he has a great chance of winning it, and I don't know how you could say that with any confidence. A week on Sunday we should at least know a fair bit more
I think both Douvan's Arkle was similar in a way to Altior's Montjeu... Vaniteaux got to Douvan and Ruby did have to react albeit I'm certain he would have won easily ... but that's how I see the Altior race too. I think Altior would have won either of those Arkle's and Douvan would too.
The thing I'm struggling with is how Fox Norton can be so sorry based on his Arkle form ... I can't think of a horse that looks like he's improved so much out of novice company. I'd be staggered if FN beat either, in any race ... but better judges than me (Rory Delargy being one) have him down as a great price and bet for the CC even now
Similar enough Kev, but under completely different circumstances in my opinion. Vaniteux may have got to Douvan, but Ruby still hadn't moved a muscle on him, whilst Nico was having to push Altior along at the same stage. Vaniteux was fairly flat to the boards in just getting to Douvan, Charbel on the other hand looked to be travelling just as good, if not better than Altior. I still think Altior would have won regardless, but he doesn't have that same air of invincibility about him that Douvan has, or had rather. Just my opinion of course and all of this is complete conjecture, which is something I have to avoid in my professional life, but I enjoy these speculative debates about horses.
re. Fox Norton, I can't see him beating either of the big two myself, but there's no doubting he's a much improved horse these days, and I think he'll provide Douvan with a real test. If Douvan can beat him like he's done so in the past, then we know he really is back to his best.
The difference there though might have been as much riding style as anything. Nico leaves little to chance and Ruby is often last off the bridle regardless ... in fact it's incredibly rare to see ruby off the bridle first and win. (Partly due to horses being the best, him getting the best out of them too ... but still) obviously some exceptions like champagne fever in supreme too ... but I wouldn't beat Altior with a stick just because Nico beat him with a stick. If ruby rode Altior I think he'd have been on the bridle still (impossible to know, could be wrong, but just a theory)
In terms off looking invincible, I'd say altior's performances in open company last year are just that ... and the silks/ trainer/ jockey and hype add to Douvan's. HOWEVER, both superstars to my mind and as fun as it is, debating which horse was better in their respective Arkle wouldn't help me pick between the two if they do clash
Last edited by Kevloaf; 29 November 2017, 03:23 PM.
Douvan's Arkle was 6.9 seconds faster than Altior's.
For comparison, the other chases on the 2016 Tuesday were also quicker but only by 2.3 seconds over 2m4.5f and by 8.3 seconds over 4 miles. The Arkle Douvan would almost certainly have beaten the Arkle Altior quite comfortably.
Douvan's Arkle was 6.9 seconds faster than Altior's.
For comparison, the other chases on the 2016 Tuesday were also quicker but only by 2.3 seconds over 2m4.5f and by 8.3 seconds over 4 miles. The Arkle Douvan would almost certainly have beaten the Arkle Altior quite comfortably.
Does this make Finians a shoe in for the arkle then considering his closing sectionals were quicker than Douvan and Altior ran in the arkle with them having run a shorter trip and worse ground?
Douvan's Arkle was 6.9 seconds faster than Altior's.
For comparison, the other chases on the 2016 Tuesday were also quicker but only by 2.3 seconds over 2m4.5f and by 8.3 seconds over 4 miles. The Arkle Douvan would almost certainly have beaten the Arkle Altior quite comfortably.
Impossible to be almost certain, as the races would be run differently.
Altior, in Douvan's Arkle would almost certainly have run quicker than he did in his own? He'd have have Douvan seeing a faster pace and had something to aim at?
Douvan's Arkle was 6.9 seconds faster than Altior's.
For comparison, the other chases on the 2016 Tuesday were also quicker but only by 2.3 seconds over 2m4.5f and by 8.3 seconds over 4 miles. The Arkle Douvan would almost certainly have beaten the Arkle Altior quite comfortably.
You can't draw that conclusion from the times alone. How were the two races run? Altiors race was a slower run race, that's why he looked to get tapped for toe briefly when they started teaching coming down the hill. Had last year's Arkle been run at an end to end gallop, I'm certain you'd have seen an equally impressive Arkle win as Douvan's.
Douvan may well be a better horse but you can't use the times of their Arkle victories to judge.
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