Champion Chase 2018

[Kevloaf]

Superb from Altior.

Probably get slated for this in light of the above comments but I think Altior could get done for toe in a good ground Champion Chase. Think Min is a great bet to take this. Will get a good tow off Special Tiara again and cause a minor upset.

Altior (IRE) 4/1
Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson
Travelled and jumped well, mid-division, headway after 5th, challenged after 2 out, ridden to lead before last, quickened clear, impressive (tchd 9/2 in places)

Min (FR) 15/8F
R Walsh W P Mullins
Tracked leader, mistake 3rd, challenged after 2 out, soon ridden, kept on but readily outpaced by winner (op 2/1 tchd 11/4 in places)


-------

Last time they met, Altior looked to have more toe than Min?

[Sirbetalot]

Altior (IRE) 4/1
Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson
Travelled and jumped well, mid-division, headway after 5th, challenged after 2 out, ridden to lead before last, quickened clear, impressive (tchd 9/2 in places)

Min (FR) 15/8F
R Walsh W P Mullins
Tracked leader, mistake 3rd, challenged after 2 out, soon ridden, kept on but readily outpaced by winner (op 2/1 tchd 11/4 in places)


-------

Last time they met, Altior looked to have more toe than Min?

2016

Min not !00% not my words

different race different year different fences

[Tenty]

2016

Min not !00% not my words

different race different year different fences

Exactly, Min travelled better to the turn than Altior despite what the race comments say.

A literal reading of that race obviously gives him no chance but he has certainly improved in the interim and was very impressive given how quickly Special Tiara went last week and how easily he tracked him.

Just my opinion that Altior will need further on good ground. If it turns up soft then this is a non issue but I think he will get found out on spring ground over 2 now he is a couple of years older.

[Kevloaf]

2016

Min not !00% not my words

different race different year different fences

Of course it is, but that isn't proof Min would have more toe? It just negates the point rather than proves it - so you've got nothing at all to base Min having more toe than Altior on?

[Kevloaf]

Exactly, Min travelled better to the turn than Altior despite what the race comments say.

A literal reading of that race obviously gives him no chance but he has certainly improved in the interim and was very impressive given how quickly Special Tiara went last week and how easily he tracked him.

Just my opinion that Altior will need further on good ground. If it turns up soft then this is a non issue but I think he will get found out on spring ground over 2 now he is a couple of years older.

Dangerous to say he travelled better IMO - I think the style of the jockeys is absolute stark contrast and Nico will push along long before RUby would dream of it... we can onl tell how a horse is travelling by looking at the jockey on top (bar them throwing their head around etc)?

I agree Altior may be better over further, and have said that previously. I think he'd win the Ryanair incredibly easily...but obviously don't want to see that.

Special Tiara wouldn't have liked the ground either so picking him up wouldn't have been as impressive as it perhaps looked?

[Tenty]

Dangerous to say he travelled better IMO - I think the style of the jockeys is absolute stark contrast and Nico will push along long before RUby would dream of it... we can onl tell how a horse is travelling by looking at the jockey on top (bar them throwing their head around etc)?

I agree Altior may be better over further, and have said that previously. I think he'd win the Ryanair incredibly easily...but obviously don't want to see that.

Special Tiara wouldn't have liked the ground either so picking him up wouldn't have been as impressive as it perhaps looked?

Yes all fair points Kev. Do agree re Nico and Ruby.

Yes I think Ryanair would actually be his perfect race as well but as you say it is much better that he runs here.

Hopefully they get there in one piece. Always my favourite race of the week.

[Scooby91]

Exactly, Min travelled better to the turn than Altior despite what the race comments say.

A literal reading of that race obviously gives him no chance but he has certainly improved in the interim and was very impressive given how quickly Special Tiara went last week and how easily he tracked him.

Just my opinion that Altior will need further on good ground. If it turns up soft then this is a non issue but I think he will get found out on spring ground over 2 now he is a couple of years older.

I have always had that same opinion I see exactly where your coming from. But with further evidence on altior that's his run style. Once shaken up he has gears left and just cruises.

arctic fire was simular in that regard imo. Without coming back on the bridle like altior does.

[Kevloaf]

Yes all fair points Kev. Do agree re Nico and Ruby.

Yes I think Ryanair would actually be his perfect race as well but as you say it is much better that he runs here.

Hopefully they get there in one piece. Always my favourite race of the week.

Perhaps they'll take him to the Melling after the CC and he can clash with the winner of the Ryanair over 2m4f.... that would put our theory to the test!

*Either way, I don't care who is the best horse of all time over 2m4f.... 2m or 3m are much more important so even if I don't find out, it's not a big loss haha

[Kevloaf]

Timeform gave Min 169+ for his win last weekend
They've given Altior 169+ for his win yesterday

So Timeform certainly see it closer than I do. Altior's peak TF rating is 171.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Timeform gave Min 169+ for his win last weekend
They've given Altior 169+ for his win yesterday

So Timeform certainly see it closer than I do. Altior's peak TF rating is 171.

I'm surprised by Min's rating of 169. Ordinary World would have been reasonably close had he not made a mess of the last.

[opatcho]

Min 169, wow..... that’s generous!!!

[jono]

I have a feeling after Altiors performance at Newbury, Douvan's 50/50 chance has suddenly shifted towards not running and he ends up "not quite ready"...

I just cant see them pitching up Douvan without a run against Altior. If he had of got beaten yesterday or not looked quite as good then maybe they would have really pushed him and gone all out to get him ready in time but they'll settle with Min now imo and save Douvan for Punchestown.

[Folski]

Reasons why I think it is possible Min could overturn the form with Altior result in a bit of study I did in the Supreme a few years back.

Off the top of my head horses who would have been within 10L of the champion hurdle based on time that were 5 at the time.

2016 - Min
2016 - Buveur D'Air (Champion Hurdler)
2015 - Douvan
2015 - Sizing John (Gold Cup winner)
2014 - Vautour (Ryanair winner)
2013 - Jezki (Champion hurdler)
2011 - Spirit Son
2011 - Sprinter Sacre (Champion Chaser)

Of the three who haven't won a major festival race Spirit Son won the G1 at Aintree before succumbing to a rare disease, next seasons Champion Hurdle was won by Rock On Ruby and I think he'd have been bang there. We all know how good Douvan is and few would doubt he would have won QMCC last year if he was right. Min is the only other, yes he was beat 7L by Altior. Jezki was smashed a similar distance by the Tent.

I'm not saying he will win but this is a very interesting trend.

[Robbante]

I've got Min as my biggest winner here ahead of Altior and am happy with that position. Might be a bit of a bounce next month and although he's 3 from 3 at the track i'm not 100% he's at his best there... we've seen him off the bridle earlier around Cheltenham than at flatter tracks

[Folski]

I've got Min as my biggest winner here ahead of Altior and am happy with that position. Might be a bit of a bounce next month and although he's 3 from 3 at the track i'm not 100% he's at his best there... we've seen him off the bridle earlier around Cheltenham than at flatter tracks

Charbel did look to have him at it last year. He was super impressive the weekend. When he won the Arkle last year I immediately thought King George.