Arkle 2018

[Scooby91]

I don't think they'd bring UDS over for anything better than soft ground. If they wanted to run him on ground that didn't suit they could find a race closer to home

Not sure, it's a nice race to win. They have a few there to split up. Might be on the soft side anyway.

[jono]

I would expect Soft ground but having to find a race for both Yorkhill and Min I think it would take real good ground to stop them from coming over, even good to soft I think they would run. (He came over for the Tingle Creek on Good to Soft (good) ground) They would be running out of races to split them up otherwise i'd think. (There is a 2m chase as Naas on the 24th February but that may be cutting it too close to the festival).

In a strange way if I was a Brain Power backer I'd probably prefer to see him take in the Doncaster race even if it is a bit of a non event purely to see if he can replicate his form on a left handed track.

If he did go to Ascot though, Brain Power beating UDS would be a big turn up and he would arguably be bringing the best piece of form into the Arkle and deserve respect. I'd have to also assess the performance and win based on the ground too though as we saw Sire de Grugy get to within a length of UDS in the 2016 Tingle Creek

[Kevloaf]

I would expect Soft ground but having to find a race for both Yorkhill and Min I think it would take real good ground to stop them from coming over, even good to soft I think they would run. (He came over for the Tingle Creek on Good to Soft (good) ground) They would be running out of races to split them up otherwise i'd think. (There is a 2m chase as Naas on the 24th February but that may be cutting it too close to the festival).

In a strange way if I was a Brain Power backer I'd probably prefer to see him take in the Doncaster race even if it is a bit of a non event purely to see if he can replicate his form on a left handed track.

If he did go to Ascot though, Brain Power beating UDS would be a big turn up and he would arguably be bringing the best piece of form into the Arkle and deserve respect. I'd have to also assess the performance and win based on the ground too though as we saw Sire de Grugy get to within a length of UDS in the 2016 Tingle Creek

As impressive as Footpad has been, UDS is a better horse for me but the caveat is that it's ground dependant.

If UDS isn't better than footpad who also likes cut, On soft . .. I'd be amazed. Footpad might end up with a similar career to UDS and that'd be great.

[jono]

As impressive as Footpad has been, UDS is a better horse for me but the caveat is that it's ground dependant.

If UDS isn't better than footpad who also likes cut, On soft . .. I'd be amazed. Footpad might end up with a similar career to UDS and that'd be great.

To clarify I don't think Brain Power would be able to beat or live with UDS if it is real soft ground, I think very few horses in training could. If there was decent ground though and let's say he did push UDS all the win and even beat him, I could see a situation where by there could be an severe over reaction, when infact he would still have something to prove imo despite on the face of it having the stand out form in the market by far.

On the subject of ground - how do we feel about Footpad and likely better ground? Evidence so far suggests him appreciating a softer surface, though I wouldn't say he's been disgraced on ground with good in the description by any means. Good to soft ground as it's almost certain to be (or at least that's what they'll call it!) - any major worry?

[Kevloaf]

To clarify I don't think Brain Power would be able to beat or live with UDS if it is real soft ground, I think very few horses in training could. If there was decent ground though and let's say he did push UDS all the win and even beat him, I could see a situation where by there could be an severe over reaction, when infact he would still have something to prove imo despite on the face of it having the stand out form in the market by far.

On the subject of ground - how do we feel about Footpad and likely better ground? Evidence so far suggests him appreciating a softer surface, though I wouldn't say he's been disgraced on ground with good in the description by any means. Good to soft ground as it's almost certain to be (or at least that's what they'll call it!) - any major worry?

Minor worry for me. Not enough to put me off because I don't think he's thrived in softer going. Not a 'mud-lark' so the improvement over fences because of his jumping technique is way more important? .... but minor, until proven...

You?

[jono]

Minor worry for me. Not enough to put me off because I don't think he's thrived in softer going. Not a 'mud-lark' so the improvement over fences because of his jumping technique is way more important? .... but minor, until proven...

You?

Yeah not overly concerning either. Watching back on some his rides, in particular on better ground - Irish champion hurdle (1L defeat by Petit Mouchoir), Triumph Hurdle (3rd), Champion Hurdle (4th) and Champion Stayers Hurdle (3rd) the ground doesn't look to have hindered him. Held up in all races, sometimes very far back he's always travelled nicely and picked up very well, without looking outpaced on the ground. For me it was just his ceiling over hurdles rather than the ground holding back.

He's only just turned 6 years old so I think we can't really say what ground will see him in the best light even if past hurdle runs may suggest it, particularly over a new discipline that looks to be his fortay like you say. Certainly deserves the benefit of the doubt that he will be ok when the ground improves in the Spring festivals. And even if he still prefers softer ground, he probably has enough to beat most of this Arkle field.

[Kevloaf]

Interesting that he hasn't been held up in either chase run so far actually.
First race they probably didn't have the ability to go at his pace but in his 2nd run, he wasn't dropped out (although only a 5 runner race)... but he also was left in front 4 out and its his jumping that seems to put everything behind under pressure.

... because he jumps from A to B so quickly, pegging him back between fences might take a lot of out the others...

COnfident he'd get further, and seems to have the ability to go at a quick pace, I wonder if they'll just let him bowl along down the back straight at the festival and get them all 'at it'.

Ruby will know best of course, but I think once this horse hits thr front nothing would be able to come past him, and I'd like the screws turned early! (contrary to his hurdles 'defeats')

[The Lick]

Couldn't agree more. Footpad is a great jumper and was 4th in last years Champion Hurdle which was some feat as a 5yp.
A lot of my multiple bets centre on him.

[jono]

Yeah there's certainly been a shift in how they have been riding him, much more positive. I agree i'd like to see them continue this and really try and get the rest of the field in trouble turning for home.

[Kevloaf]

Okay ---- remember 100/1 Rawnaq? I've got another, albeit not as strong a case to be made, as we all know if Rawnaq didn't get injured he was a GOOD THING

I've added a 100/1 shot with BFSB - Saint Calvados. A while back, on the mares thread Brital mentioned he'd added Saint Calvados at 100/1 for the Arkle.... I popped him in the tracker and waited.

He made his debut over fences off 143 in a handicap last week and beat a horse who is fairly exposed but decentish in Remiluc easily by 9L in the end carrying loads more weight. For his first run, I loved the way he jumped the majority of his fences, really quick and accurate! He's with Harry Whittington (who had Arzal) and I reckon this horse could be as good. (Arzal won a Group 1).

I also checked Mark Howards One Jump Ahead and he gets a mention in Venetia Williams' section, where is says he won 3 hurdle races in France and should be better over fences. (Can only assume he's moved since then to Harry?)

I went to check the price and BFSB have him still at 100/1, 66s with SJ and as short as 33s in a place.

Chance he could go up in trip so won't go over board, but watch the debut and see what you think..... Arkle might well cut up and I wouldn't mind a 100/1 shot on my side...connections mentioned the Scilly Isles at Sandown (3rd February) after the win and that is a grade 1 so must think a bit of him too!

0.5pt e/w Saint Calvados 100/1 Arkle

Actually, 66/1 for the JLT too and if he goes Scilly Isles maybe that is more likely....
0.5 pt e/w Saint Calvados 66/1 JLT

[Kevloaf]

Mount Mews introduced at 20/1 for the Arkle after winning on debut today

[Robbante]

Mount Mews impressive enough, big chasing type. Think he's 16s for the JLT as well, might go that route with Footpad looking rock solid for the arkle. Can't get involved yet but will keep an eye on next run

[Scooby91]

Mount Mews introduced at 20/1 for the Arkle after winning on debut today

He's a nice horse I do like him, might prefer a bit of cut in the ground and he side stepped chelt for aintree last year . A little suprised the sent him chasing today i personally thought his hurdles mark looked fair enough. But obviously they've took his novice status away now so it will ne fences.
I looked straight to chelt jlt market after his race. Expecting a bit of 33s nrnb he's short enough now

[Kevloaf]

Was over 2m3f today wasn't it so maybe JLT is more likely.

I feel like I'd backed Mount Mews over a bit of a cliff over hurdles. Not going to get carried away with him yet. Nice jumping on debut though

[Liammet]

Interesting that he hasn't been held up in either chase run so far actually.
First race they probably didn't have the ability to go at his pace but in his 2nd run, he wasn't dropped out (although only a 5 runner race)... but he also was left in front 4 out and its his jumping that seems to put everything behind under pressure.

... because he jumps from A to B so quickly, pegging him back between fences might take a lot of out the others...

COnfident he'd get further, and seems to have the ability to go at a quick pace, I wonder if they'll just let him bowl along down the back straight at the festival and get them all 'at it'.

Ruby will know best of course, but I think once this horse hits thr front nothing would be able to come past him, and I'd like the screws turned early! (contrary to his hurdles 'defeats')

Does daryl Jacob have first choice of munir's horses in the Arkle ?
If so,surely he will pick footpad over Sceau Royal