Arkle 2018

[Robante]

Maybe so, IF Melon was one of Ricci's horses, but he isn't mate, or at least he wasn't last time I checked! Chacun Pour Soi may come here, but has other race entries too.

Haha valid point, rookie error, getting flustered by all the horses and connections trying to assess. I guess Chacun Pour Soi will be aimed simply at the race he stands the best chance of winning then, dependent how he looks early season. Bit wary as could be another American Tom. Would be all over Melon for this but no way he wins the Champion Hurdle this year - will run creditably I'm sure but far too hot a race

[ComplyOrDie]

Yeah, I think this time last year Ricci had Min, American Tom & Royal Caviar all in the betting for this race, I believe Min & American Tom both got injured before the festival last year so it was left to Royal Caviar, who failed to land any blow.

This festival I think Chacun Pour Soi is the only one in the betting for him currently, who is highly thought of, and only time will tell.

Totally unsure about Melon currently, will wait and see where he starts his season at.

[archie]

As it stands, Melon would look to be staying over hurdles this season but early days yet.

[ComplyOrDie]

Thanks Archie

[Faugheen_Machine]

As it stands, Melon would look to be staying over hurdles this season but early days yet.

Thanks Archie - the champion hurdle dream is still alive

[Faugheen_Machine]

Would be all over Melon for this but no way he wins the Champion Hurdle this year - will run creditably I'm sure but far too hot a race

Not sure it'll turn out to be such a hot champion hurdle Rob. Here is the top of the market:

Buveur D'air - worthy fav
DDS - will have to be special to win. 5yr olds have a terrible record.
Faugheen - off the track for almost 2 years. May not turn up.
Yorkhill - may yet stay over fences. May not turn up.
Min - probably stays over fences.
Apple's Jade - wants 3 miles, rather than two. Won't run
Labaik - currently injured and has a head full of spanners
Petit Mouchior - goes over fences
Wicklow Brave - handicapper, rather than gd1 hurdler
33/1 bar

I think it has the potential to be a weak champion hurdle with doubts surrounding many of those at the head of the betting.

[Robante]

Not sure it'll turn out to be such a hot champion hurdle Rob. Here is the top of the market:

Buveur D'air - worthy fav
DDS - will have to be special to win. 5yr olds have a terrible record.
Faugheen - off the track for almost 2 years. May not turn up.
Yorkhill - may yet stay over fences. May not turn up.
Min - probably stays over fences.
Apple's Jade - wants 3 miles, rather than two. Won't run
Labaik - currently injured and has a head full of spanners
Petit Mouchior - goes over fences
Wicklow Brave - handicapper, rather than gd1 hurdler
33/1 bar

I think it has the potential to be a weak champion hurdle with doubts surrounding many of those at the head of the betting.

Could go either way. If you've three out of Buveur, Defi, Faugheen and Yorkhill turning up in good form then i'd say it's a strong renewal. Taking MTOY as a yardstick Buveur D'Air would have a few lengths in hand on Labaik, who of course finished a couple in front of Melon in the supreme. If you take Wicklow Brave as a yardstick then Buveur D'air would have about 20 lengths in hand over Melon on collateral form. Of course it's not that simple to read form across like that, and you have to factor in probably more improvement for Melon this year. However, no way can i see that Melon will have a chance of finishing in front of Buveur D'air, who is the one runner in the race that we know is assured to line up (barring injuries)

[archie]

As pointed out elsewhere, BDA and Melon were officially rated about the same coming out of their respective novice seasons. BDA made great strides last season but it would be foolish to think that Melon might not do the same.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think it's dangerous to write off Melon's chances by using the form of Labaik at Punchestown. Don't forget that Labaik finished that race with a career threatening injury.

Melon has only raced over hurdles three times, finishing 2nd at Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals. At 5 years old, he should have quiet a lot of improving to do. Official rating 152.

Compare that with Buveur D'air at the end of his novice campaign. BD had run 4 times over hurdles, finishing 3rd at Cheltenham and winning at Aintree. Official rating 152.

They were both lightly raced horses during their novice hurdle seasons and I can see Melon improving a lot during this campaign.

[Robante]

Form over ratings though surely? Not one piece of form suggests Melon can beat Buveur D'air so any bet on Melon would be a leap of faith that he's improved a massive amount. You could also argue that Cilaos Emery might improve the same amount as Melon, and having already beaten him as a 5 year old why shouldn't he have his number again

[Robante]

I think it's dangerous to write off Melon's chances by using the form of Labaik at Punchestown. Don't forget that Labaik finished that race with a career threatening injury.

Melon has only raced over hurdles three times, finishing 2nd at Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals. At 5 years old, he should have quiet a lot of improving to do. Official rating 152.

Compare that with Buveur D'air at the end of his novice campaign. BD had run 4 times over hurdles, finishing 3rd at Cheltenham and winning at Aintree. Official rating 152.

They were both lightly raced horses during their novice hurdle seasons and I can see Melon improving a lot during this campaign.

I don't doubt he'll improve, but others are entitled to also (i.e. Cilaos Emery). I think Melon would have a great shot at winning the Arkle this year, given the likely improvement as he gets more experience, and likely improvement when going over fences. I still think this is the logical route Melon will take assuming Faugheen shows some of his old spark

[Faugheen_Machine]

No single price of form would have had Buveur D'air as champion hurdler at this stage last season but he improved.

I agree, Cilaos Emery is another who could improve and be a contender in March, although I do prefer Melon of the two.

[ComplyOrDie]

Form over ratings though surely? Not one piece of form suggests Melon can beat Buveur D'air so any bet on Melon would be a leap of faith that he's improved a massive amount. You could also argue that Cilaos Emery might improve the same amount as Melon, and having already beaten him as a 5 year old why shouldn't he have his number again

I think they are priced accordingly, 25/1 (top price) that's 5/1 for Melon to place let alone win the race, compared with the 4/1 (top price) for BD to WIN only! As FM said, it could, potentially, turn into a really weak CH, not every horse in the current betting market will turn up, that is for sure, and 25/1 on Melon is a huge e/way steal IMO, nevermind if it wins, if the race collapses in participants.

[Robante]

I think they are priced accordingly, 25/1 (top price) that's 5/1 for Melon to place let alone win the race, compared with the 4/1 (top price) for BD to WIN only! As FM said, it could, potentially, turn into a really weak CH, not every horse in the current betting market will turn up, that is for sure, and 25/1 on Melon is a huge e/way steal IMO, nevermind if it wins, if the race collapses in participants.

Melon e/w at that price does seem a decent bet. Only negative for me would be if Faugheen is showing he's back to his best (a long shot in itself i guess) and Mullins has a word in the owner's ear and gets them to switch to the Arkle

[ComplyOrDie]

If Faugheen turns up at his very best then the rest all might as well go chasing