Arkle 2018

[Folski]

I see this as a 3 horse race between FP, PM & SC.

FP - Is down 3-1 versus PM. Granted up 1-0 over fences. We have seen the Mullins quotes on his jumping. Has beat everything easily. Good festival form, just not bomb proof for me at the moment. I plan to look at the sectionals from all his races v PM tonight.

PM - Seemed to make an abundance of mistakes over hurdles and made a few early v Footpad at Leopardstown last time, doesn't seem to stop his momentum though. As stated is currently 3-1 up against Footpad and would not have been on favourable terms for the defeat last time, giving he was coming off an injury. I think everyone can expect improvement from him, but horses with an interrupted preparation at the festival I usually tend to avoid.

SC - Looked super impressive so far although the form is probably not rock solid but his jumping has been very good and I would love to be on at 100/1 like some here. Ground would be my big worry for him and he certainly has a lack of experience of being in a battle compared to FP & PM.

[KingSprinterSacre]

Jacob confirmed in Jan on On the Line with Chapman that he rides SR and Ruby Footpad.

Bromley earlier in the season -

Anthony Bromley, racing manager for owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede said: “It was lovely to see. It wasn’t a total surprise as the horse has got great form over hurdles and he was always going to be a nice chaser. The manner of it was great.”

He went on: “It will be up to Willie (where he goes), but I imagine he will be campaigned between two and two and a half miles and then see where we go. It will fit around with what else he has got.

“I was pleased Daryl (Jacob, retained rider) got the chance to ride him as he rode him in most races last season as he was always the second or third string in the Grade Ones in the Mullins yard. When Ruby (Walsh) had a sore hand, it was nice Daryl could go and ride him.

“Whether he will get back on him is another thing as I imagine he will be first choice in that division now.

[ComplyOrDie]

Jacob confirmed in Jan on On the Line with Chapman that he rides SR and Ruby Footpad.

Bromley earlier in the season -

Anthony Bromley, racing manager for owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede said: “It was lovely to see. It wasn’t a total surprise as the horse has got great form over hurdles and he was always going to be a nice chaser. The manner of it was great.”

He went on: “It will be up to Willie (where he goes), but I imagine he will be campaigned between two and two and a half miles and then see where we go. It will fit around with what else he has got.

“I was pleased Daryl (Jacob, retained rider) got the chance to ride him as he rode him in most races last season as he was always the second or third string in the Grade Ones in the Mullins yard. When Ruby (Walsh) had a sore hand, it was nice Daryl could go and ride him.

“Whether he will get back on him is another thing as I imagine he will be first choice in that division now.

This is a very interesting line for me, given they have SR who hasn't looked anything other than a 2m horse booked for a run in the Arkle, if they work around that then potentially could end up JLT after all!

I would say that it highly unlikely at this stage however, but IF that was taken literally then I'd guess both horses would be split up.

Edit: Maybe I should read the b****y quote properly actually, he means what Willie has and not what the owners have!

[Kevloaf]

Not sure if this has been mentioned but Brain Power has had a wind op since his last run/fall.

Henderson said: "He worked this morning and I was very pleased. He has had his wind op - he will have these great initials (in the racecard) after his name when he appears.

"He is a little bit forgotten, but nothing has gone right. He won very nicely the first time. We did not want to make the running at Sandown the next time and that was a bit of a disaster.

"We then went to Ascot, not to say we were going to beat Un De Sceaux, but what I wanted was a real good gallop. Everything was going great until he turned out of Swinley Bottom to come up the hill and he just choked and that was his palate.

"He is a very talented horse. It is a hot Arkle and they are going to go a good gallop. It's open and I think Footpad has looked very good and Saint Calvados has looked very good.

"Brain Power was the best of them over hurdles by a quite long way and is a very good jumper of fences."

----- Not sure I agree with Nicky's last statement though!!!

[TCH29]

Hi there, long time lurker, first time poster. You all seem a friendly (and very knowledgable) bunch. Heading to my 5th festival in a row - all 4 days again.

I thought I'd finally post on this thread.

I really do feel Brain Power is the forgotten horse here. I think he's comfortably the best English horse on GS or better. Not to say he'll win, but I think he's being forgotten.

I know someone (not closely at all, I should add, but who gave me very solid intel on how much the Hendo camp truly knew Altior would beat Min), who said (albeit a year ago now), that the Hendo camp really do rate BP a lot.

I think posters before me have quoted Hendo taking about how BP's who's the only one in the stable who can keep with Altior on the gallops. But I also recall D Mullins talking him massively up after his first chase run.

Since then he's had excuses: a very tactical race with SR, where he unseated, likely beaten, but where Mullins gave him an awful ride. Hendo came out and said as much. The plan was never to lead them around...Mullins has been ditched since then for NdB (who has the best "close finish" record of all the top jockeys, I believe).

Thereafter he was pitched into open company against UdS, on unfavourable ground...and he was probably going to finish 4 lengths in 2nd had he not fallen at the last. No one else in this race has taken on anything as strong as UdS over fences. To me that form reads very well for the Arkle.

He's then has a wind op, whilst his owner, Buckley, continues to speak bullishly.

Footpad has clearly been very impressive. Willie loves him and he'll probably win. But BP is surely a fantastic ew bet. The prices offered stand out to me as a being extremely generous.

My only real concern is Cheltenham as a course, as he has a poor record there. But people seem to have forgotten he faded so quickly two out last year in the CH because he lost a shoe (as well as probably doing a bit too much racing early on).

I know these sound like lots of excuses, but I think most stack up, and the yard have so much belief in him. 12-16s seen madness to me.

[TCH29]

Apologies for any typos; I'm on my phone and predicative txt occasionally let's me down.

[Kevloaf]

Welcome TCH. GOod first post, lots of very interesting and well thought out points.

My only "niggle" about the amount of faith they have, is for every example we could find where they are right (Altior) ... I could find one that was wrong (Charli Parcs)?

Persoanlly in a lucky spot to have Brain Power e/w at 20/1 which does eliminate my need to be quite so effusive one way or the other and sometimes it is hard to take a fresh look on a race.

If I was starting now though, with no bet in the race.... would 16/1 for Brain Power compensate all of the concerns/excuses/points you've mentioned? His prep/fall last time, the track, beaten by SR, a wind op(positive?), bullish comments(positive?).

Prior to the Kingmaker I'd have had North Hill Harvey as the best each way bet back at Cheltenham but that looks to be wrong. He;s now 25s from 16s what I thought that.

I think you can certainly make a case that Saint Calvados and Sceau Royal are too short... which could perhaps but him 3rd in the betting, but Footpad and Petit Mouchoir set the standard AND are closely matched for me.... so you'd have to be hoping Brain Power not only usurped the two British rivals, but also hope the British form is stronger than the Irish? I feel the each way value is a little squeezed

All very well me saying that, but what would I back each way now? Well I'd really struggle, because I think whichever horse is "best of the British" may still end up 3rd at best?

[Cashew King]

Apologies for any typos; I'm on my phone and predicative txt occasionally let's me down.

I thought 16s was big too & already have a little on each way. Whilst it has happened yet, so clearly comes with a health warning, if he put it all together he’s certainly got the engine to go well - at 16s I’m happy to take the punt in a race which will likely have relatively few runners. The last 2 years I was on Vaniteux & Charbel at 33s & 25s with big profits on both for a top 3 finish - so due a change of luck!

[Folski]

I have calculated the sectionals of all 4 races featuring Footpad & Petit Mouchair, my findings are below.

Ryanair hurdle: PM is 1.98seconds quicker than FP from first to post and 9.42 seconds quicker than the 2m4f handicap the winner of which was mid 120s and carried 7lb less. Looking at his sectionals versus the handicap, it shows he tends to go hard at the start of a race, gradually reducing speed as the race unfolds, before a drop in pace, then kick for home but he is doing his work early in his races. Footpad was never really a factor in this race.

Irish Champion hurdle: PM tries similar tactics to the Ryanair hurdle, on the clock FP is well able to match him for pace and actually runs from first to post 0.96 seconds quicker the PM. PM has a nice lead built up at the first and FPs hold up tactics prove costly going down by about 1L. Footpad is about 5.75L quicker from the 2nd last to the winning post than PM. Incredibly this race is run 20second quicker than Christmas with the going having good in the description. However, comparing the time to that of Let's Dance in the grade 2 shows the race was not the all out gallop it could have been. Let's Dance is 0.11 seconds quicker than PM from first to last and you wouldn't say she is all out in the race although she is well ridden out and in receipt of 14lb.

Champion Hurdle: Again FP is quicker first to last than PM this time by .56seconds and his hold up tactics proving costly again. Labaik was 1.06 seconds faster than PM first to post. Similar tactics used by PM again although he didn't go as hard early this time.

Hurdle races overall: Discounting the first race as FP was non-competitive, its is interesting to note that each race has 8 hurdles, in the Irish Champion, FP is nearly 5L quicker than PM between the 5th and 8th but only 0.01 second between the last and post. In the Champion Hurdle it is a similar story, FP is 3L quicker between the 5th and 8th but 0.15 slower from last to post. This really makes me question the tactics used on FP, while he can generally match the early pace that PM goes he is doing his toughest work to get into contention before the finish, therefore not leaving as much in the tank for the actual finish, a more positive ride closer to the pace would make sense.

Irish Arkle: Footpad again quicker from first to post, this time 0.8 seconds but is eased before the line. The race also compares quite favourably with the handicap chase over the same distance in which Patrick's Park was 1.3 seconds slower and all out unlike Footpad, but also carrying 26lb less. From 1st to 9th PP was approx 16.5L behind FP but about 11L quicker from 2 out. PP was all out and FP was eased so you can probably knock the bulk of that off in what was a very impressive performance.

Overall, my doubts on FP have eased considerably and I think a positive ride from the off will see him win this.

[TimRiggins]

I have calculated the sectionals of all 4 races featuring Footpad & Petit Mouchair, my findings are below.

Ryanair hurdle: PM is 1.98seconds quicker than FP from first to post and 9.42 seconds quicker than the 2m4f handicap the winner of which was mid 120s and carried 7lb less. Looking at his sectionals versus the handicap, it shows he tends to go hard at the start of a race, gradually reducing speed as the race unfolds, before a drop in pace, then kick for home but he is doing his work early in his races. Footpad was never really a factor in this race.

Irish Champion hurdle: PM tries similar tactics to the Ryanair hurdle, on the clock FP is well able to match him for pace and actually runs from first to post 0.96 seconds quicker the PM. PM has a nice lead built up at the first and FPs hold up tactics prove costly going down by about 1L. Footpad is about 5.75L quicker from the 2nd last to the winning post than PM. Incredibly this race is run 20second quicker than Christmas with the going having good in the description. However, comparing the time to that of Let's Dance in the grade 2 shows the race was not the all out gallop it could have been. Let's Dance is 0.11 seconds quicker than PM from first to last and you wouldn't say she is all out in the race although she is well ridden out and in receipt of 14lb.

Champion Hurdle: Again FP is quicker first to last than PM this time by .56seconds and his hold up tactics proving costly again. Labaik was 1.06 seconds faster than PM first to post. Similar tactics used by PM again although he didn't go as hard early this time.

Hurdle races overall: Discounting the first race as FP was non-competitive, its is interesting to note that each race has 8 hurdles, in the Irish Champion, FP is nearly 5L quicker than PM between the 5th and 8th but only 0.01 second between the last and post. In the Champion Hurdle it is a similar story, FP is 3L quicker between the 5th and 8th but 0.15 slower from last to post. This really makes me question the tactics used on FP, while he can generally match the early pace that PM goes he is doing his toughest work to get into contention before the finish, therefore not leaving as much in the tank for the actual finish, a more positive ride closer to the pace would make sense.

Irish Arkle: Footpad again quicker from first to post, this time 0.8 seconds but is eased before the line. The race also compares quite favourably with the handicap chase over the same distance in which Patrick's Park was 1.3 seconds slower and all out unlike Footpad, but also carrying 26lb less. From 1st to 9th PP was approx 16.5L behind FP but about 11L quicker from 2 out. PP was all out and FP was eased so you can probably knock the bulk of that off in what was a very impressive performance.

Overall, my doubts on FP have eased considerably and I think a positive ride from the off will see him win this.

And that's the reason I grind slots to pay for my summer holidays, and not horses.

Incredible amount of work must have gone into that, Folski.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Tim - I may be naive here, but surely you can't make slots pay.

Wrt brain power - his record at Cheltenham is poor and he'll find nothing up the hill imo. Robbie Mac said he's another 'Sickbag' and I think he's right.

[billymag]

Brain powers record Left handed would be enough to put me off.

[ComplyOrDie]

I have calculated the sectionals of all 4 races featuring Footpad & Petit Mouchair, my findings are below.

Ryanair hurdle: PM is 1.98seconds quicker than FP from first to post and 9.42 seconds quicker than the 2m4f handicap the winner of which was mid 120s and carried 7lb less. Looking at his sectionals versus the handicap, it shows he tends to go hard at the start of a race, gradually reducing speed as the race unfolds, before a drop in pace, then kick for home but he is doing his work early in his races. Footpad was never really a factor in this race.

Irish Champion hurdle: PM tries similar tactics to the Ryanair hurdle, on the clock FP is well able to match him for pace and actually runs from first to post 0.96 seconds quicker the PM. PM has a nice lead built up at the first and FPs hold up tactics prove costly going down by about 1L. Footpad is about 5.75L quicker from the 2nd last to the winning post than PM. Incredibly this race is run 20second quicker than Christmas with the going having good in the description. However, comparing the time to that of Let's Dance in the grade 2 shows the race was not the all out gallop it could have been. Let's Dance is 0.11 seconds quicker than PM from first to last and you wouldn't say she is all out in the race although she is well ridden out and in receipt of 14lb.

Champion Hurdle: Again FP is quicker first to last than PM this time by .56seconds and his hold up tactics proving costly again. Labaik was 1.06 seconds faster than PM first to post. Similar tactics used by PM again although he didn't go as hard early this time.

Hurdle races overall: Discounting the first race as FP was non-competitive, its is interesting to note that each race has 8 hurdles, in the Irish Champion, FP is nearly 5L quicker than PM between the 5th and 8th but only 0.01 second between the last and post. In the Champion Hurdle it is a similar story, FP is 3L quicker between the 5th and 8th but 0.15 slower from last to post. This really makes me question the tactics used on FP, while he can generally match the early pace that PM goes he is doing his toughest work to get into contention before the finish, therefore not leaving as much in the tank for the actual finish, a more positive ride closer to the pace would make sense.

Irish Arkle: Footpad again quicker from first to post, this time 0.8 seconds but is eased before the line. The race also compares quite favourably with the handicap chase over the same distance in which Patrick's Park was 1.3 seconds slower and all out unlike Footpad, but also carrying 26lb less. From 1st to 9th PP was approx 16.5L behind FP but about 11L quicker from 2 out. PP was all out and FP was eased so you can probably knock the bulk of that off in what was a very impressive performance.

Overall, my doubts on FP have eased considerably and I think a positive ride from the off will see him win this.

Nice one on the extensive work

However, despite all this I have my reservations about Footpads ability to battle when push comes to shove, he needs to either win on the bridle or through horses, I fear if he leads in the Arkle and he gets headed it's game over, so I'd either accept his hold up tactics as a risk or hope he leads them a merry dance, which given the quality of the race is unlikely IMO. I suspect tactics will be to have him tracking the leaders, due to the pace likely to be set by PM & SC, something we haven't seen him do a lot of in his races to date.

[Folski]

Nice one on the extensive work

However, despite all this I have my reservations about Footpads ability to battle when push comes to shove, he needs to either win on the bridle or through horses, I fear if he leads in the Arkle and he gets headed it's game over, so I'd either accept his hold up tactics as a risk or hope he leads them a merry dance, which given the quality of the race is unlikely IMO. I suspect tactics will be to have him tracking the leaders, due to the pace likely to be set by PM & SC, something we haven't seen him do a lot of in his races to date.

I have had similar reservations and from the sectionals he seems to be merely matching PM from the last in his races despite closing hard in the few hurdles before that. Maybe that says more about PM than FP. I would love to know if FP had a breathing op over the summer.

What I would say is that Ruby has been very handy in his 3 recent Arkles where he has been 211. Taking it up early with CF, UDS and Douvan.

Footpad had been in a few battles in early to mid 2016 also but I don't think he is as battle hardened as PM.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Only 13 left in the Arkle, 7 of those split between Mullins and Elliott