Arkle 2018

[JackieMoon33]

Iv got a ridiculous ammount on footpad 16/1 any race / 33/1 arkle. Which would put me well in profit for the whole festival after the 2nd race

What do you think of Stay Humble?

[jono]

Petit Mouchoir at 6/1 and Faugheen at 8/1 are 2 crazy prices considering the fields that are over reactions on their respective defeats this weekend. I think you can get 5/1

Bet365 have the double at 1/4 odds, BOG NRNB at 5/1 and 6/1
2pts staked (1pt ew) for 5.63pts return - 3.63 pt profit (both to place)

[ComplyOrDie]

HdB said Petit Mouchoir came out of yesterday race well this morning, which is good news. Hope he makes it there in one piece now!

[Kevloaf]

Petit Mouchoir at 6/1 and Faugheen at 8/1 are 2 crazy prices considering the fields that are over reactions on their respective defeats this weekend. I think you can get 5/1

Bet365 have the double at 1/4 odds, BOG NRNB at 5/1 and 6/1
2pts staked (1pt ew) for 5.63pts return - 3.63 pt profit (both to place)

Trimmed to 5/1 and 5/1 now ... they're watching you

[jono]

Trimmed to 5/1 and 5/1 now ... they're watching you

Haha! Or I lumped on and move the market...

[Kevloaf]

Saint Calvados is on course to have his final race before heading for the Arkle Trophy at Cheltenham in the Betway Kingmaker Novices' Chase at Warwick on Saturday.

The five-year-old, who has won both his starts over fences, also holds an entry in the Betfair Exchange Chase at Newbury in which Altior and Politologue are probable runners

However, that is extremely unlikely, with trainer Harry Whittington reporting his charge ready for the Warwick test for which there were just six entries after the race was re-opened.

"He'll run in the Kingmaker. We just made the other entry in case Warwick was off and the two big guns weren't going to run for any reason," said Whittington.

"If Warwick was to be off, he might go straight to Cheltenham anyway but we just thought we'd give him the entry at Newbury as well.

"He's in excellent form, he's fresh and well and is very straightforward to train."

Potential rivals are headed by Dan Skelton's North Hill Harvey, who was second to Sceau Royal in the Grade One Henry VIII Novices' Chase at Sandown.

Harry Fry has put in Drumcliff, who is unbeaten in two starts over the bigger obstacles, while Tree Of Liberty, who chased home Saint Calvados at Newbury last month, may represent Kerry Lee.

Paul Nicholls has Diego Du Charmil, while the sextet is completed by the sole possible from Ireland, Saturnas from Willie Mullins' stable.

[Kevloaf]

Surprised that he's odds on to be honest. I hope he justifies those odds as he'd them have very solid place claims.

[Can't Catch Me]

Seems an odd decision to run Diego du Charmil in this if they want to get a nice mark around 140 for the Grand Annual

[Kevloaf]

Paddy have a Without Footpad market

15/8 petit mouchoir
9/4 Sceau Royal
11/2 NHH
6/1 saint calv and brain power

All NRNB

[ComplyOrDie]

I feel like I've probably done the Petit Mouchoir/Footpad debate to death now, but I'm back with more (probably because as it stands Petit Mouchoir is my joint biggest winner of the festival) haha, I've had a little more time to reflect on the race today too.

I have been and watched the Irish Arkle 3 times today already, and I have a few points to make about the race:

1. Footpad heading off in front, a surprising tactic, maybe one to try and see if they can force a lesser race fit, Petit Mouchoir, into mistakes? Which he did at the first couple of fences, but after that seemingly jumped well enough all the way round. I'd imagine plenty of schooling will take place between now and the festival, so a worry I don't think I'll have come the day. I actually think it took its toll more on Footpad from the front than it did PM by the end of the race.

2. Davy Russell, despite seemingly unimpressed by PM at the end of the race, was happy enough to use it as pretty much a schooling session. PM was pulling hard early on and wanted to hit his fences at a quicker pace and lead, which he so frequently had done throughout his hurdling days (and in doing so finished ahead of Footpad on every occasion, including when giving weight away). I think he will lead the Arkle field, and then it's down to them to catch him. Russell also rode in Footpad's shadow, until pulling PM wider in the straight, but never went for the whip, something that Petit Mouchoir responds well to, that said, Townend never went for his either, but then again wasn't required too as PM was never put alongside him, PM should have been the one doing the catching and as a jockey in a Grade 1 you, in theory, should use the tools to hand, but I feel he was ridden with 'kid gloves' if I'm honest, possibly to protect him for Cheltenham, which I'd imagine will have been his target race all season anyway.

3. I watched a lot of Footpad over hurdles, and he always done his best work late on, a bit of a 'plodder', for the best 2m races, or needed softer ground. He wasn't a slow 'plodder' by any stretch, but as turn of foot's go, it took him a while. 'IF', and yeah, there are a lot of 'if's' and 'buts' for the every race at the festival, but 'IF' PM gets the lead he is so used to and uses his turn of foot to his advantage, like he used to over hurdles, no matter how well Footpad jumps, I think it will be too late to catch PM again, which was so often the case over hurdles for him.

4. Heart. I don't know many other horses that have the battle and the heart of PM, one reason why I stick by him. I love a battler, he leads, and then it is always down to the opposition to pass him, plenty of very good horses have failed to do so in the past. If I had to take one of PM or Footpad into battle with me there is only one winner, PM!

The above points, despite being my beliefs, are obviously not a given that Footpad will be beat over fences, I think Footpad is an extremely talented horse in his own right, and he is my cover bet for the race, so now no disaster for me if Footpad does win, but IMO I felt they were points worth making.

With regards to the current prices, I think they are too far apart for definite. PM will go off shorter than 5/1 for sure, which I have taken into account on the exchanges and will lay off accordingly, as I have him plenty covered already.

[ComplyOrDie]

Paddy have a Without Footpad market

15/8 petit mouchoir
9/4 Sceau Royal
11/2 NHH
6/1 saint calv and brain power

All NRNB

WOW! 15/8 is a bit of me! Maybe I will be backing him again afterall

[Scooby91]

I was very tempted to back NHH today. But saint calvados is in receipt of 7pounds. If it was at Cheltenham I would have. But will be an interesting race to watch all the same

How saint calvados is rated 154 I couldn't tell you. Horses winning handicaps always seem to get massively inflated marks.

[Kevloaf]

I was very tempted to back NHH today. But saint calvados is in receipt of 7pounds. If it was at Cheltenham I would have. But will be an interesting race to watch all the same

How saint calvados is rated 154 I couldn't tell you. Horses winning handicaps always seem to get massively inflated marks.

I nearly went back to copy your post about Saint Calvados in this race and how you expect him to get put in his place by NHH .... but to say there is no way you'd have expected it to be on these terms!

I genuinly believe SC will need to beat NHH by a distace to justify being shorter than him for the Arkle.

I obviously want to see that happen given my bet on SC but NHH is going to be better at Cheltenham regardless of what happens today.

SC is going to struggle to enhance good claims today... if NHH gets beaten by less than the weight he gives away it'll expose SC .... fingers crossed though ... it'd be lovely to have a very live 100/1 shot!

[Folski]

I feel like I've probably done the Petit Mouchoir/Footpad debate to death now, but I'm back with more (probably because as it stands Petit Mouchoir is my joint biggest winner of the festival) haha, I've had a little more time to reflect on the race today too.

I have been and watched the Irish Arkle 3 times today already, and I have a few points to make about the race:

1. Footpad heading off in front, a surprising tactic, maybe one to try and see if they can force a lesser race fit, Petit Mouchoir, into mistakes? Which he did at the first couple of fences, but after that seemingly jumped well enough all the way round. I'd imagine plenty of schooling will take place between now and the festival, so a worry I don't think I'll have come the day. I actually think it took its toll more on Footpad from the front than it did PM by the end of the race.

2. Davy Russell, despite seemingly unimpressed by PM at the end of the race, was happy enough to use it as pretty much a schooling session. PM was pulling hard early on and wanted to hit his fences at a quicker pace and lead, which he so frequently had done throughout his hurdling days (and in doing so finished ahead of Footpad on every occasion, including when giving weight away). I think he will lead the Arkle field, and then it's down to them to catch him. Russell also rode in Footpad's shadow, until pulling PM wider in the straight, but never went for the whip, something that Petit Mouchoir responds well to, that said, Townend never went for his either, but then again wasn't required too as PM was never put alongside him, PM should have been the one doing the catching and as a jockey in a Grade 1 you, in theory, should use the tools to hand, but I feel he was ridden with 'kid gloves' if I'm honest, possibly to protect him for Cheltenham, which I'd imagine will have been his target race all season anyway.

3. I watched a lot of Footpad over hurdles, and he always done his best work late on, a bit of a 'plodder', for the best 2m races, or needed softer ground. He wasn't a slow 'plodder' by any stretch, but as turn of foot's go, it took him a while. 'IF', and yeah, there are a lot of 'if's' and 'buts' for the every race at the festival, but 'IF' PM gets the lead he is so used to and uses his turn of foot to his advantage, like he used to over hurdles, no matter how well Footpad jumps, I think it will be too late to catch PM again, which was so often the case over hurdles for him.

4. Heart. I don't know many other horses that have the battle and the heart of PM, one reason why I stick by him. I love a battler, he leads, and then it is always down to the opposition to pass him, plenty of very good horses have failed to do so in the past. If I had to take one of PM or Footpad into battle with me there is only one winner, PM!

The above points, despite being my beliefs, are obviously not a given that Footpad will be beat over fences, I think Footpad is an extremely talented horse in his own right, and he is my cover bet for the race, so now no disaster for me if Footpad does win, but IMO I felt they were points worth making.

With regards to the current prices, I think they are too far apart for definite. PM will go off shorter than 5/1 for sure, which I have taken into account on the exchanges and will lay off accordingly, as I have him plenty covered already.

I think you make some very good points COD.

[Kevloaf]

Henry de Bromhead: "Petit Mouchoir seems good, really fresh and well since the run and I'm delighted with him. I thought he ran really well and I think he'll come on from the run.

"He seemed very fresh before the race and then those couple of mistakes early on were unlike him. He was just so bullish to be back.

"Hopefully he'll improve. He's in both the Arkle and the JLT at Cheltenham. I presume he'll run in the Arkle, but nothing is confirmed as yet."


Interesting!