Arkle 2018

[Kevloaf]

Movewiththetimes one I really fancy for the Close Brothers if he can keep his weight down. As it stands he can't get in off 146, hopefully JP is thinking the same way as I am and instructs Barry accordingly.

I thought he was 145? I considered him for the close brothers but wasn't sure Nicholls would put him away for the season?

[Montjeu]

Sorry Kev 145 is correct.

PP offered me 25/1 for the race, I'd nearly want that just for him to line up!

Not sure how Tully East managed to get in off 138 last year, but I don't think the handicapper will make the same mistake twice, especially with MWTT's high profile connections in Nicholls and McManus.

[JackieMoon33]

Sorry Kev 145 is correct.

PP offered me 25/1 for the race, I'd nearly want that just for him to line up!

Not sure how Tully East managed to get in off 138 last year, but I don't think the handicapper will make the same mistake twice, especially with MWTT's high profile connections in Nicholls and McManus.

English horses run off their official rating so if the race was tomorrow, MWTT would be racing as the handicapper doesn't inflate the English marks.

[Scooby91]

English horses run off their official rating so if the race was tomorrow, MWTT would be racing as the handicapper doesn't inflate the English marks.

Am I right in thinking his mark could go up in his box though through related form ? ie finians bolting up next time out
And the 3rd winning.

[Montjeu]

English horses run off their official rating so if the race was tomorrow, MWTT would be racing as the handicapper doesn't inflate the English marks.

I'm not sure what you mean Jackie, I'm aware English horses run off their OR, but the race is for horses rated between 0 - 140, so on 145 MWTT wouldn't get in. My point is, if MWTT was able to get in under 140 I'd fancy him a lot. In order to do that though, he'd need to be ridden with the aim of reducing that mark. However with such high profile connections, the handicapper may not be so easily fooled.

[Scooby91]

I'm not sure what you mean Jackie, I'm aware English horses run off their OR, but the race is for horses rated between 0 - 140, so on 145 MWTT wouldn't get in. My point is, if MWTT was able to get in under 140 I'd fancy him a lot. In order to do that though, he'd need to be ridden with the aim of reducing that mark. However with such high profile connections, the handicapper may not be so easily fooled.

It's 145 now

[Montjeu]

Apologies, I never saw the changes made by the BHA to the novice chase system. Very welcome changes I must say, and makes that 25/1 a lot more appealing.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I have my eye on one in the green and gold for this, but it ain't MWTT.

*By this, I mean the novice handicap chase. Forgot it was the Arkle thread

[Montjeu]

On that note, I'd have a lot more confidence in that price now. As you say Kev, you couldn't rely on Nicholls to put him away for the season, but you can bet your bottom dollar Frank Berry noticed what mark MWTT has, and these kind of raids are right up their street.

[Scooby91]

On that note, I'd have a lot more confidence in that price now. As you say Kev, you couldn't rely on Nicholls to put him away for the season, but you can bet your bottom dollar Frank Berry noticed what mark MWTT has, and these kind of raids are right up their street.

Not one for me anyway at this stage.

But I'd atleast wait to see if he ran at plumpton.

[JackieMoon33]

Apologies, I never saw the changes made by the BHA to the novice chase system. Very welcome changes I must say, and makes that 25/1 a lot more appealing.

I made the same mistake

[Montjeu]

Not one for me anyway at this stage.

But I'd atleast wait to see if he ran at plumpton.

Yeah I'll be waiting until after Plumpton at the least.

[Hurricane fly]

I’ve been quite sweet on Koshari for a while, waiting to see him jump a fence but if everything is smooth I may have a small play on him as a saver for my Petit Mouchoir bets

[Kevloaf]

Back to the Arkle , 'update' on the market and a negative or two for each

6/1 - Footpad - Better on soft ground / target not confirmed / might be better over further
10/1 - Brain Power - Poor Cheltenham record / better right handed / held on hurdles form with rivals
12/1 - Finian's Oscar - Target not confirmed / Might get tapped for toe / Not slickest jumper
12/1 - Petit Mouchoir - Had a setback / Slight chance he might go up in trip / Unlikely to get a good prep
16/1 - North Hill Harvey - Held by majority on hurdles form / Jockey & Trainer festival form
25/1 - Sceau Royal - Already been beaten by a rival / Not a spring horse / Owner has more viable option for the race
25/1 - Movewiththetimes - Target far from confirmed / Might need further / Might only have ability for handicaps
25/1 - Charli Parcs - is not chasing
25/1 - Cilaos Emery - is not chasing
25/1 - Melon - is not chasing
25/1 - Yanworth - Definitely better over further / Already had a fall
25/1 - River Wylde - Been beaten this season / collateral form of his earlier win buts him behind market rivals
25/1 - Chacun Pour Soi - Target not confirmed / No UK experience
66/1 - SHantou Rock - Already been stuffed


too many NR's in the 33/1+ bit for me to carry on.

If I was starting from scratch now, with the market as it is.... I am struggling to see an angle... I suppose I found North Hill Harvey and Petit Mouchoir the hardest to come up with negatives, albeit PM's are obvious.

[BigChaang]

Good post Kev, I was mulling this one over yesterday , Not a lot to be confident about at the moment , several
of them have only had one chase run , . Not saying he's the best , but i have topped up on my
North hill harvey bet , simply because he's 4 wins from 6 races at cheltenham , obviously likes the place.