Arkle 2018

[Kevloaf]

Hi Kev is that video from today or an old one, cheers cant find at date for it.

Yeah today, racing post website. Tizzard gives any update on thistlecrack, native river, fox Norton and Finian's. (He talks about fix Norton going 2m CC too rather than Ryanair)

[Kevloaf]

Having nailed my colours to the mast regarding Finian's Oscar's(151) target being the ARKLE, I thought I better start thinking about his chances of winning it! I thought it'd be a good place to start looking at last seasons novice hurdlers as historically they have a good record particularly in this race (admittedly I haven't had time to actual check this recently, but I am pretty sure it rings true) ... anyway....

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Anglo-Irish-Novice-Juvenile-Hurdle-Classification-2016-17.pdf

Now looking at the 2m to 2m2.5f horses last year, moving down we have Labaik(161), DDS(157) (hurdles), Cilaos(153)(hurdles), Melon(152)(hurdles), Bapaume(151)(don't know?), Mega Fortune(151), Master Blueyes(150)(Don't know), Pingshou(150)(hurdles) ...
Skip a few, Ballyandy(147),Movewiththetimes(146). Now we've seen both of these so far and although they weren't bad, I don't think either have screamed Arkle winner, in fact both look like a step up would do them good.

Moving on to the 2m3f+ novices from last season and fortuantely we have more that are going chasing... starting with Presenting Percy(157) and West Approach(157). Both excellent and 0% they'll be at 2 miles - which is a comment I'd be confident in saying about the next few Champange Classic(153), Penhill(153), Bacardys(151), Willoughby Court(150), The Worlds End(149), Monalee(149), Tin Soldier(149), Gayebury(148), Death Duty(147) ... Captain Forez(148) and Neon wolf(150) would have been interesting. The one I jumped over was Finian's Oscar(151), and although I do honestly feel he'd be better over the intermediate distance, he is the only horse rated 145+ last season as a novice that I can even contemplate having the class to win this race.

Obviously horses can improve and I expect some to make a mockery of their novice hurdle ratings (like Shantou Rock has?!) but the base figure that Finian's Oscar has in hand over ANY of these novices at this trip makes him a much shorter shot than the 14/1 still available for me. Bleu Berry (143), River Wylde (144) probably the closest actual ones you can start making a case for? Possibly William Henry(145).

Plenty of people don't like (and statistically are right) horses that have had more than one season over hurdles for this race, and although that certainly wouldn't make me put a line through anything, it would be a consideration.

To sum up, I now believe 100% if sound, this will be the race Finian's Oscar runs in, regardless of his winter campaign and I have no fear from any of the novice hurdlers last season in terms of this race. I believe Finian's Oscar would have put up a bigger novice hurdle performance/rating last season than he had chance to do, by missing the Cheltenham Festival too. I think the price his is, hasn't factored in the comments from Colin Tizzard and although the 16s have now gone, and Sky have ducked to 11/1, that still under-estimated where this horse will be in the market on the day. Until I see a performance that makes me really sit up and take note from out of the blue, I am very happy to sit in this position.

12 pts - WIN at 16/1

[BigChaang]

When Thomas Hobson wins the Melbourne cup I’ll get involved

I'm going to reinvest my Melbourne cup winnings on F.O !!

[BigChaang]

Finions Oscar running in the steel plate and sections race at Cheltenham , countryside day -fri 17th nov.
Apologies if someone's already posted this.

[billymag]

Ok I can think of a European horse thats won the Melbourne cup now that didnt have an Australian prep race!!! Well done JOB serious achievement, what a training performance!!!!

[SAMCRO]

Finions Oscar running in the steel plate and sections race at Cheltenham , countryside day -fri 17th nov.
Apologies if someone's already posted this.

is that not over 2m 4?

Finians Oscars Sire doesn't have a great record over 2 miles at the festival. Much Better over 2 mile 4.

[Scooby91]

is that not over 2m 4?

Finians Oscars Sire doesn't have a great record over 2 miles at the festival. Much Better over 2 mile 4.

Yes. Its The race 00seven won last year for henderson.

[JackieMoon33]

is that not over 2m 4?

Finians Oscars Sire doesn't have a great record over 2 miles at the festival. Much Better over 2 mile 4.

Big Zeb won and was placed in the QMCC.
Rock On Ruby won and was placed in the Champion Hurdle.

[SAMCRO]

Big Zeb won and was placed in the QMCC.
Rock On Ruby won and was placed in the Champion Hurdle.

At Cheltenham (the course not festival)

2 miles (ish)
4 wins from 78 runners

2 mile 4 (ish)
10 wins from 50 runners

[Kevloaf]

At Cheltenham (the course not festival)

2 miles (ish)
4 wins from 78 runners

2 mile 4 (ish)
10 wins from 50 runners

Interesting, and fits the run style and visual impression for Finian's Oscar... but I don't think that'll change where he ends up and although 4 from 78 isn't a huge percentage, Finian's Oscar looks a cut above any other novice that'll be in this race IMO

[archie]

He'll have to hugely improve his jumping to stand any chance in the Arkle. Not impossible but he looks a clumsy boat at the moment. It will be interesting to see who Willie finally starts here but I'd expect him to beat FO.

[Scooby91]

Shantou rock back out tomorrow, his form has worked out pretty well and id expect him to win in the same manner tomorrow. He's a very progressive horse and 40/1 could look a bit of an insult.

To be noted that skelton also has Mr miyagi and north hill Harvey for 2m novice chases, but shantou rock would look the most progressive.

[Kevloaf]

Shantou rock back out tomorrow, his form has worked out pretty well and id expect him to win in the same manner tomorrow. He's a very progressive horse and 40/1 could look a bit of an insult.

To be noted that skelton also has Mr miyagi and north hill Harvey for 2m novice chases, but shantou rock would look the most progressive.

Came on to post about this.... got quite a lot in hand tomorrow so might not affect his price. If I see another very nice round of front running and leaping I'll have another bet on him

[Scooby91]

Came on to post about this.... got quite a lot in hand tomorrow so might not affect his price. If I see another very nice round of front running and leaping I'll have another bet on him

The price of a horse seems to be about visual impression and hype/ whispers rather than substance these days.

Shantou rock broke the track record at newton abbot

[JackieMoon33]

The price of a horse seems to be about visual impression and hype/ whispers rather than substance these days.

Shantou rock broke the track record at newton abbot

I agree prices are weighted based on reputation, trainer and owner, however, how many top class horses have run at Newton Abbot in a competitive race?