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Could be just the 3lbs weight range in the race this year!! On the shortlist:
Potters Legend - 139 - 20/1 (25's Boylesports)
Showed string bumper and hurdles form. Beaten just 1 length by Ballyandy at the Open meeting in a bumper in 2015, his hurdles debut was behind Wait For Me and he finished off the season running a fine race in the Sefton Novice Hurdle at Aintree behind Ballyoptic and Bellshill. He seemed to just be outstayed by the 2 that day. Won his first 2 chases this season. A well beaten 4th behind Belami Des Pictons at Newbury on his 4th start. Made a couple of mistakes and then was hampered 3 out which meant he may have finished closer than the 14lengths back. The winner that day is now rated 148.
His final start though impressed me most. The Timeform Novice Chase on Trails day has thrown up both Rajdhani Express (2013) and Irish Cavalier (2015) in the past 4 seasons, along with Generous Ransom placing in 2015 so is a decent sighter for the race. Well beaten by Royal Vacation but that one has a live chance in the RSA and is rated 152 but he was hampered not once but twice by horses in front of him yet still managed to finish as close as he did. Had the 146 rated Ibis du Rheu behind him in 3rd. Has the option of the Kim Muir but doesn't strike me like he wants the 3miles and his trainer recently stated:
So with the handicapper keeping him on139 it looks like this will be the race. Never finished outside the top 4 with form lines of 122122311242. Those 2 seconds behind Ballyandy and Royal Vacation at the course show he has nothing to worry about with the course. One of the few races at the festival where the smaller yards do well. One I really like.
Tully East - 138 - 20/1
Last year Connell and Fleming teamed up in the race with Bridgets Pet coming 4th at 33/1. Looks like the same connections have another contender in the race this year in Tully East. Last year this horse was an outside 50/1 chance in the Martin Pipe but ran a fine race to place in 4th showing he has the all important festival and course form. Interestingly that was his first step up in trip to the middle distance with all his previous 4 runs coming under the minimum distance. The exact same distance he's been running this year. So he'll be stepping up to 2m4 for only the second time, with his previous attempt being at last years festival over the same trip. He's been pitched in against quality opposition (Grade 1 against Min, Grade 3 against Ball D'Arc) in his last 2 runs and hasn't exactly been hard pressed on these outings shall we say. Has plenty of entries in the festival but the Arkle and JLT surely look beyond him. He's likely to get in off one of the lower weights in the Grand Annual if connections choose that option but in my eyes this race looks to have been the target all year.
Romain de Senam - 137 - 10/1
Not much to be said with this one as he's on many peoples shortlist i'm sure. Looks like he is just on the borderline to get in but I imagine he will. Looks to go one better than Bouvreiull and Nicholls last year who also came 2nd in the previous years Fred Winter. Everything suggest he's been laid out for the race all season and Nicholls is bullish
Potters Legend - 139 - 20/1 (25's Boylesports)
Showed string bumper and hurdles form. Beaten just 1 length by Ballyandy at the Open meeting in a bumper in 2015, his hurdles debut was behind Wait For Me and he finished off the season running a fine race in the Sefton Novice Hurdle at Aintree behind Ballyoptic and Bellshill. He seemed to just be outstayed by the 2 that day. Won his first 2 chases this season. A well beaten 4th behind Belami Des Pictons at Newbury on his 4th start. Made a couple of mistakes and then was hampered 3 out which meant he may have finished closer than the 14lengths back. The winner that day is now rated 148.
His final start though impressed me most. The Timeform Novice Chase on Trails day has thrown up both Rajdhani Express (2013) and Irish Cavalier (2015) in the past 4 seasons, along with Generous Ransom placing in 2015 so is a decent sighter for the race. Well beaten by Royal Vacation but that one has a live chance in the RSA and is rated 152 but he was hampered not once but twice by horses in front of him yet still managed to finish as close as he did. Had the 146 rated Ibis du Rheu behind him in 3rd. Has the option of the Kim Muir but doesn't strike me like he wants the 3miles and his trainer recently stated:
It depends what the handicapper does. If he leaves him alone he could run in the two-and-a-half-mile novice chase or he might go for the Kim Muir. He will go straight to Cheltenham now. You would have to think that there is a good one in him
Tully East - 138 - 20/1
Last year Connell and Fleming teamed up in the race with Bridgets Pet coming 4th at 33/1. Looks like the same connections have another contender in the race this year in Tully East. Last year this horse was an outside 50/1 chance in the Martin Pipe but ran a fine race to place in 4th showing he has the all important festival and course form. Interestingly that was his first step up in trip to the middle distance with all his previous 4 runs coming under the minimum distance. The exact same distance he's been running this year. So he'll be stepping up to 2m4 for only the second time, with his previous attempt being at last years festival over the same trip. He's been pitched in against quality opposition (Grade 1 against Min, Grade 3 against Ball D'Arc) in his last 2 runs and hasn't exactly been hard pressed on these outings shall we say. Has plenty of entries in the festival but the Arkle and JLT surely look beyond him. He's likely to get in off one of the lower weights in the Grand Annual if connections choose that option but in my eyes this race looks to have been the target all year.
Romain de Senam - 137 - 10/1
Not much to be said with this one as he's on many peoples shortlist i'm sure. Looks like he is just on the borderline to get in but I imagine he will. Looks to go one better than Bouvreiull and Nicholls last year who also came 2nd in the previous years Fred Winter. Everything suggest he's been laid out for the race all season and Nicholls is bullish
He's on the right mark to be winning and he's crying out for two and a half in a fast-run race
(and now Potters Legend).
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