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As someone who has backed the two second favourites can anyone see any danger to Samcro and Laurina beyond the obvious handling ground and track provisos?
As a Samcro backer the only horse im worried about if he runs in the Ballymore is On the Blind side who i could see possibly running him down late, other than that only dangers i can see are the hurdles or an act of god.
As a Samcro backer the only horse im worried about if he runs in the Ballymore is On the Blind side who i could see possibly running him down late, other than that only dangers i can see are the hurdles or an act of god.
i fully agree with this, but let’s hope Samcro goes Ballymore
I know this may sound stupid but is anyone else not concerned about current weather for fest? I know it’s still weeks away yet and still plenty of time, but this weather is still forecast. Apparently snow is forecast next week too. Do you think we will see spring ground or the going be heavy?
Too early to be worrying about the ground for me with 5 weeks still to go. Cheltenham has an excellent drainage system anyway.
It's not so much the drainage Sean, though they upgraded the irrigation a few years ago, it's the increased air temperature that dries the ground in March compared to deep Winter.
12-15 degrees with the winds that hit the course will dry the ground out even when the water table is high.
Mr Claisse will be under pressure to ensure ground doesn't get too quick during the week so I expect to see ground more soft than good on day one, especially if they get a dry week forecast....
Things change quickly. I walk the dog around the course regularly and it can be soft and muddy one day, then fairly firm a few days later after few dry days. Definitely premature to be thinking about weather now.
I also have 1 pt on that double at 4s and 9s. I don’t like mentioning my nice (sounding) ones without mentioning a crap one (me superstitious?!) so I’ll just add that I also have 1 pt doubles on both CoC & BD with Fayonagh
Wasn’t there a good/mug bet thread last year? Have plenty to put in there!
I take this as a personal triumph that I have worn you down in 12 months on here
7 horses? (I've got 8 haha!)
Looking at those 7, you'll be in an incredibly strong position on the day, so how do you feel personally about it now, I know you know I have a little dilema somtimes with "not having an opinion" or "Not backing an opinion".... ?
I actually feel very good about it, certainly more so than I would have last season. I think early on with antepost I had the misconception that I had to have the one bet and come down on the one fancy in a race, otherwise it wouldn't quite feel like I've picked the winner, which was also at a point where it was all about finding the winner rather than finding the value. Going back to the first few festivals it was even a case where by I would look at it from a tally of winners for the week - aiming for 8 (/27) winners in the week almost not even factoring in the profit and that fact I could have say 4 winners and still have less profit than 1 big priced winner. Which is madness now when I think about it!
You made great success last year utilising the NRNB on the the likes of Sizing John as an example in the Gold Cup. Where bar tying up cash, there was little risk compared to the reward. So that stuck with me and I've made a point of trying that more so this year I.e No Comment in this race. Plus the fact 6/7 in the race are also EW unlike previous I.e my supreme bets in 16/17 were all 4 win only which means I know potentially 3/7 could all give a return. This race specifically as well, so much comes down to the jockey so although I try and think and take onboard who the likely jockey will be, it's often not straight forward and in this race compared to the vast majority of others, that could be the difference between fancying a horse I've backed even more so or not at all. Moulin a Vent for example I would give very very little chance if s top jockey doesn't ride him.
I certainly will still come down on a final opinion in this race and all races by the time the race starts but my approach and feeling about more bets in a race has certainly relaxed and is something I'm happier with doing. It also though depends on how the market of a race develops through the season. The Stayers hurdle for example, I was very happy to side with Nichols Canyon as my main fancy literally after last years festival and I hadn't actually had another bet in the race until his fatal injury. And I may well have only backed him in the race by March but what happened then meant I backed Supasundae (any race but this in mind), La Bague au Roi and The Worlds End and Finians Oscar all at different points. And Bacardys may end up here again as an any race bet but more unlikely now. So much can change throughout the winter and March that siding with 1 bet and 1 pick is very very tough. Certainly if you want to get the bigger and better prices, you generally have to take more risks and accept backing more horses as now the true or correct price is often gone after a maiden hurdle or beginners chase, sometimes even before that
On the entertainment / profit / breaking even debate...my brief take is similar to some already. Due to the period of time my bets are placed, come March it generally doesn't feel like I'll have spent the amount I have , because the money will be long gone. So worst case I lose it all, I'll be gutted but it's been spread out over time which minimises the impact. Certainly nothing like if say for example I took the same amount and out it on a single bet that week. The feeling between the 2 even though the outcome is the same (losing) would be massively different. The plus point to that as well is that any winnings then feel like profit during the festival week, regardless if they are still just getting closer towards breaking even then above.
I don't think there's anything wrong with setting breaking even as the minimum ideal aim. This is a hobby and I get so much enjoyment out of it that even coming out at a loss overalls, I'd except that, if however year and year that continued I'd have to think about it and at least change my approach or strategy. The aim for me of course is to enjoy (which is a given) and win big. The second is the hard part though so breaking even, especially after my first point on any winnings actually 'feeling like profit' is I think a reasonable aim. The sport and entertainment come first for me absolutely, I don't bet on any other sport despite watching and liking them, bit of poker and casinos now and again but that's it, it's 99% jumps racing. I have little interest in flat racing, and for that reason I won't bet, as the interest and passion isn't there for me. The dream and the lure of winning big is the incentive but for me it's all about the journey and months and months on here and excitement rather than the betting itself.
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