Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[Kevloaf]

I love the horse, a real shame he got injured as I personally thought he was a gold cup horse in waiting.
I couldn't back him for the fox hunters at this stage, if he was 100% going for the race, he retains most of his ability he'd be a huge price at 6s. But they are all huge iffs.

I'd echo that.... I'd certainly not expect a horse to improve for leaving Willie Mullins. I nearly made a thread on the Foxhunters today with a loose link to the news story about changing the conditiona for the jockeys, so I might do that now.

[somer1]

It's not for every body and I completely understand that, but certainly works for me. It's very rare I will top up on a horse as the price goes down, as I back my judgement and stake accordingly from an early stage.

Can remember 08 had backed Trafford Lad for the Ballymore at 33/1 e/w and for some reason kept backing it till it was 12/1.Got 3rd in the end,was well happy.

[Scooby91]

Can remember 08 had backed Trafford Lad for the Ballymore at 33/1 e/w and for some reason kept backing it till it was 12/1.Got 3rd in the end,was well happy.

I understand this, and well done but what I don't get in general is why keep backing down to 12s, why not have a larger bet at 33s.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I regularly will back a horse many times at a variety of prices, especially when ante post betting.

If I still think a horse is over priced, I'll back it again.

The year Faugheen won the champion hurdle I'd backed him at 33/1 but was still backing him at Christmas at 4/1 (shameless aftertiming) because I still thought he was overpriced.

[JackieMoon33]

I think it depends on the type of race as to how much you can heavily invest early on. If it's a Novice that you've never seen jump, there is only so much you can really justify backing at its larger, early price. If the horse then comes out and wins well on their first run, you then have some more substance to go on and can really justify a large bet, even if it's at a subsequently lower price.

[Scooby91]

I think it depends on the type of race as to how much you can heavily invest early on. If it's a Novice that you've never seen jump, there is only so much you can really justify backing at its larger, early price. If the horse then comes out and wins well on their first run, you then have some more substance to go on and can really justify a large bet, even if it's at a subsequently lower price.

I get this, but after it's jumped the last , you can still get the same price as it was before the race.

[Scooby91]

For instance samcro was always going to come out and win his maiden hurdle, especially one of that nature. He was 16s or 14s any race, why now would you back him again at 8s - 6s when hes done nothing more than what he was always going to do. Surely youd have a decent size bet according to your own stake size. Then leave him alone at current odds

[JackieMoon33]

For instance samcro was always going to come out and win his maiden hurdle, especially one of that nature. He was 16s or 14s any race, why now would you back him again at 8s - 6s when hes done nothing more than what he was always going to do. Surely youd have a decent size bet according to your own stake size. Then leave him alone at current odds

What if he came out and jumped appallingly or got beaten? Not every superstar bumper horse reaches the top over hurdles.

[Scooby91]

What if he came out and jumped appallingly or got beaten? Not every superstar bumper horse reaches the top over hurdles.

He still might. But not against that opposition. He wasn't going to jump appallingly coming from the pt to pt fields. And having schooling hurdles

[JackieMoon33]

He still might. But not against that opposition. He wasn't going to jump appallingly coming from the pt to pt fields. And having schooling hurdles

I need a crystal ball like yours

[Scooby91]

Lol. You don't need a crystal ball to know samcro beats minds eye and jack dillenger.
My crystal ball says that iv got a funny feeling that defi bleu might win a few small field bumpers and a maiden hurdle 1st time up next year
It's the same thing.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I need a crystal ball like yours

I'm with Jackie on this one. I can't be having a maximum bet on every horse I like before they have jumped a fence or hurdle in public.

Hovering over the back but as they jump the last couple of fences is a good way of getting your accounts restricted....... I'm speaking from experience

[JackieMoon33]

If he jumps and stands up I agree with you. But he is a novice and he would not be the first to take a tumble or jump poorly, regardless of a PtP or schooling hurdles.

Jenkins was the talk of the town last season and look how he panned out and Henderson is one of the best trainers of hurdlers.

[JackieMoon33]

I'm with Jackie on this one. I can't be having a maximum bet on every horse I like before they have jumped a fence or hurdle in public.

Hovering over the back but as they jump the last couple of fences is a good way of getting your accounts restricted....... I'm speaking from experience

And I have a job during the week so I'd be screwed if they were running midweek

[Kevloaf]

The answer is probably somewhere in between. For some more well-known (hype) horses, it is what I would call 'calculated' guess-work at how good they might be. (Like Samcro taking to hurdles on the track)

Our problem, trying to get perceived value ante post is that any easily accessible information, (like a trainer/owner saying they're really excited about one) gets factored in to the price... it is just a matter of how well the bookies have done it compared to what we think we know/or believe. (For Samcro, he'd raced P2P, and had racecourse experience)... which I consider much more solid than say, Annamix. However, Annamix has raced in France and the trainer has proven he is successful... so again, whatever the price is/was before they run, is a matter of what you consider value and how much you'll risk.

On the other hand, just because I had a lot of pts on CoC at 9/1, doesn't mean at 7/1 I still don't think he is good value - I don't know exactly how many pts I want on, but each week, if I have a win and I look for a bet, I might see that 7/1 and still think its a great bet, regardless of whats gone before. MAybe if I used BvD as an example, (for which I am on at 4/1) and Faugheen doesn't make the Morgiana, and BvD is then cut to 3/1 ... I would go in again, because I still consider that a great bet.

As long as we all stay friends...