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The season has at least started now
As it is responsible gambling week - and I've now gone past 250 pts staked so thought I'd look at my own position...
I did a bit of anaylsis again on my 2017 and saw that I was in profit for 16 races last season (not including ANY multiples), two races were level, and 10 races I was negative for.
The 10 negative we're:
Supreme
Mares Hurdle
Coral Cup
Fred Winter
Bumper
Stayers Hurdle
Browne Plate
Kim Muir
Albert Bartlett
Fox Hunters
To break them down a little: 4x handicaps - now this was actually quite interesting for me, as I looked at the ante post selections that I had made in all the handicaps and I only have 1 "positive", which was presenting percy at 20/1 in the Pertemps - which incidentally on the day I thought that was a busted flush too, so I had gone in on the race again.
I actually thought I'd gotten some decent prices but looking at my "wins" in 2017 they were only placed on the day of the race (or a day or two before, not sure exactly when jono made the case for Tully East but I didn't back in until the Monday...). I wouldn't have profited from any of the handicaps (bar Pertemps) with my ante post selections.... so this year I will TRY NOT to have an ante post bet in any of the handicaps no matter how good they seem to be. That will be tough, as I do love looking for them, and I did have some nicer prices place... BUT, the facts are I was NOT profitable in an ante-post format.
Backed too many Supreme - Hype horses caught me out, and I did end up backing every single horse in this race (good job or I wouldn't have had the winner and it would have been even worse) Without non runners I actually was 5 pts up.... however I had 19 pts in non runners. I already made an effort this year to back "any race" and I have been a lot more reserved, but this was the only race that my approach of going for the "green book" didn't work. So the lesson for me here, I think, is to just be more cautious with regards to target and wait for NRNB (which I will add, I had 28 pts worth of!)
The rest Mares, Bumper, Stayers, Potato, Fox Hunters
I 'took a view' in these races that didn't pay off! VVM or Limini, Western Ryder, Unowhatimeanharry, Death Duty, On The Fringe
Any of those would have been quite healthy swings, and am not really too concerned about any of them. I had some BIG prices about the majority of them and as I mentioned, none of this includes multiples, so for some of the races I didn't need to have 'singles' on as other horses we're covered (like the stayers and ... actually no other - just the stayers)
This time last year I'd already had the Altior, Yorkhill double that was the crux of my festival last year... I hope I've already stumbled across that kind of success again
Any thoughts are welcome
Last edited by Kevloaf; 15 October 2017, 10:45 PM.
Anyone interested in the Racing Post stable tours, they have started up today with Gordon Elliott. Nothing ground breaking included but this should kick off the series over the coming days/weeks.
Jesus Kev, that's a lot of points staked already haha, still got 5 months to go until the festival
Just last night I reached the 150pts staked mark, though I must say, unlike last year, a lot of mine have been done with winnings, every time I win I seem to add to the collection of bets!
Not many singles to be honest, which is a little bit of a worry, mostly multiples, some extravagant, some less so.
Added a Gigginstown e/way L15 to my collection last night, Petit Mouchoir, Apple's Jade, Samcro & Death Duty, for a total of 6pts.
I feel I have been thinking too much about Cheltenham, and more so past festivals, I still have that image of Annie Power falling and can't for the life of me shake off the potential of Mullins/Ricci having the same gamble on the opening day now that it is a couple of years on and not fresh in the minds of many, but this time around I see it as Annamix, Limini & Faugheen, any one else have these thoughts? Or just me?
I feel I have been thinking too much about Cheltenham, and more so past festivals, I still have that image of Annie Power falling and can't for the life of me shake off the potential of Mullins/Ricci having the same gamble on the opening day now that it is a couple of years on and not fresh in the minds of many, but this time around I see it as Annamix, Limini & Faugheen, any one else have these thoughts? Or just me?
To be honest I don't think planned 'the 4 timer'. UDS looked for all the world an arkle contender, Faugheen a CH contender and Douvan was the best they'd had and didn't need the step up. Annie had just been beaten the year befoe and Quevega had been retired. I'd say it was just a beautiful coincidence rather than a plan ... so even though Annamix,Faugheen,Limini could end up being 'the treble' I very much doubt its on their minds?
To be honest I don't think planned 'the 4 timer'. UDS looked for all the world an arkle contender, Faugheen a CH contender and Douvan was the best they'd had and didn't need the step up. Annie had just been beaten the year befoe and Quevega had been retired. I'd say it was just a beautiful coincidence rather than a plan ... so even though Annamix,Faugheen,Limini could end up being 'the treble' I very much doubt its on their minds?
I'd be inclined to disagree, the last few years Mullins has always seemed to target a day to be dominant, this year of course it was the Thursday where he had 4 winners, albeit 3 were short priced favourites, but they were winners all the same, plenty of favourites get beat at the festival as we well know! I think this season it will be back to targeting Day 1 as we became so accustomed too before this year!
Something I have noticed these past 3 years though is the final day runners for Mullins, he hits some BIG priced winners and placed horses and this is something I am going to target next year, doing combination multiples on plenty of them.
I don't know what you mean by target the Thursday this year? He came 2nd in the Supreme, had his two 'bankers' in Faugheen and Annie power ruled out for the Tuesday and thought Yorkhill had more chance of wining the JLT than arkle against Altior?
To me, yes targeting as many races as he can, regardless of the day. I don't believe that he specially targeted the Thursday at all, I think it was just a good day? You can't really believe he was trying to win more on the Thursday than any other day?
I don't know what you mean by target the Thursday this year? He came 2nd in the Supreme, had his two 'bankers' in Faugheen and Annie power ruled out for the Tuesday and thought Yorkhill had more chance of wining the JLT than arkle against Altior?
To me, yes targeting as many races as he can, regardless of the day. I don't believe that he specially targeted the Thursday at all, I think it was just a good day? You can't really believe he was trying to win more on the Thursday than any other day?
Agreed, even without Gigginstown, the guy has an absolute army at his disposal and he goes targeting every race he can
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so thought I'd look at my own position...
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