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Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

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  • Henderson and Fry stable tours courtesy of The Final Flight:




    When you’re the Champion Trainer with over a 100 horses at your disposal, pinpointing a stable star is no easy task, neither is shortlisting the main contenders that fill the many boxes at the Seven Barrows base synonymous with champions past and present and home to the great Nicky Henderson.

    Asked how the main man was and how he had enjoyed his summer, the reigning champion simply replied “Which one”.

    However there can only be one horse that comes to the forefront of the left hand side of one’s National Hunt brain, the exciting bundle of Chasing potential that is Altior. As a novice he has already beaten most of his main rivals in the two mile division, and this season he builds up to a Wednesday afternoon in March and his crowning as the superstar of the one lap specialists.

    “He’s summered well and looks super. Now it’s about getting him ready to match what he achieved last year when he was a star. Everything of course has to go right but we’re looking forward to it.”

    All roads this year lead towards following in the footsteps of Henderson’s previous Champion Chase winners, the great Sprinter Sacre, Finian’s Rainbow and Remittance Man, who have all landed the premier test of a chasing speedster over two miles of old course jumping.

    However the way he gets there remain fluid, despite an opening trip to Sandown locked in;

    “The Tingle Creek is the obvious starting point, we could have started off in the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham but he likes Sandown and there isn’t much time as I would like between the two races.”

    “After that he could possibly defend his Game Spirit at Newbury or go to Kempton over Christmas for the Desert Orchid”

    Although there is little doubt that the superstar seven-year-old’s season will be geared towards the back end of the Season;

    “He will definitely be busier towards the back end of the season once spring comes around. There’s the extra week gap between Cheltenham and Aintree this year and so there is the possibility of trying 2m4f in the Melling which I think would be no problem for him, and then he will probably head back to Sandown for the Celebration Chase.”

    Held on an equally high Seven Barrows pedestal is his reigning champion hurdler Buveur D’Air;

    “He was impressive all the way through last year, even in his chases, and it was a difficult call to return to hurdles.”

    “It could easily have been him staying over fences, and Altior could have done the same but it was a bit of a brave decision that paid off. As you know the jungle drums were rumbling, but at the point we made the call Annie Power and Faugheen were still in the picture and we could have made ourselves look foolish, but this fella proved how good he really is and he really is a star.”

    “He’s right up there with the best of them, definitely worthy of a place in Binocular’s league in terms of talent. A very good horse.”

    A horse which is clearly better on softer ground, underfoot conditions could determine the route he takes to defend his title. You also have to throw in the mix his stablemate, the evergreen My Tent Or Yours;

    “My god what a legend of a horse, and I would love to see him win the Grade One he deserves.”

    “He could have been regarded as one of the best hurdlers I’ve had if he had won instead of finishing second so many times! And it was so cruel last year as he ran like a spring chicken in them two races.”

    In comparison to his younger rival, his best performances have come when the ground is at its best, and therefore ground conditions could be the biggest indicator as to where we see the two green and gold competitors in the run up to the Cheltenham Festival;

    “My Tent is much better on better ground, whereas Buveur prefers it a little softer so that will dictate where they go I imagine. I have to keep them apart as I can’t do it to My Tent anymore!”

    Henderson also has a leading Gold Cup contender back in his yard with the enigmatic Might Bite, who went from lay of the Festival, to the saviour of the staying chase division in two exhilarating breakneck laps of the Prestbury Park undulations.

    Henderson is optimistic if not getting carried away when talking about his potential;

    “He’s got to step up and play with the big boys whether he likes it or not now so we shall soon find out how good he really can be.”

    He is also looking to capture the perfect Christmas present by returning to the scene of his dramatic final fence fall last year;

    “The King George would be the main aim, followed by the Gold Cup and obviously the Jockey Club dangle that huge carrot by putting on the bonus. But just because the objective is Kempton and Christmas doesn’t mean you have to go to Haydock and there is other options we can look at.”

    Does he have any fears about returning to the Sunbury venue?

    “He enjoys Kempton, the race he was running last Christmas was both impressive visually and stats wise in terms of times and speed figures. I have no doubts at all about taking him back there and think it could be the track that brings out the best in him.”

    Giving the Champion Trainer the opportunity to land all four Championship races at the Festival is the resurgent L’ami Serge. A horse Henderson beams about and holds in the highest esteem following his Auteuil triumph, which saw him throw his hat firmly into the Stayers Hurdle ring;

    “The trainer must be some fool to run a horse in the County Hurdle that wants three miles on soft ground in a French Champion Hurdle!”

    “He got better and better as the season went on last year if you conveniently forget Ayr. When he won at Sandown he ran away with Daryl all the way round so we thought we had nothing to lose giving three miles a try. He was unlucky to just get touched off in the Prix la Barka but at least we knew we were on the right track with him, and Daryl gave him a peach of a ride in the Champion Hurdle itself.”

    “We might not start over three miles with him but that is where he is almost certain to end up and you would love to think he could be a serious player in that staying hurdling division.”

    Having landed two of the three novice chase contests at the most recent edition of The Festival, denied scooping all three by the monster Yorkhill, when beating the brave and battling little Top Notch in the JLT. Henderson looks to be assembling an equally strong squad to go to war with this term, led by the Grech and Parkin owned pair of River Wylde and Constantine Bay, who look to be Arkle and RSA bound respectively.

    Speaking of the pair Henderson said;

    “I’m seriously tempted to try Novice chasing with River Wylde and keep Lough Derg Spirit over hurdles. I’m sure he would get a little further but he’s got plenty of pace so no real need to go any further than two miles and speed tests should suit.”

    “Whereas Constantine Bay just looks perfectly made for staying chasing. I felt sorry for him at the Festival as he was running a great race in the Albert Bartlett when being brought to a standstill at the second last and even though I don’t think he would have won, I think he would have definitely been second and you had to love the way he was powering up the hill that day when some horses would have given up.”

    Grech and Parkin also hold a leading figure in the Seven Barrows novice hurdle ranks for the coming season with their ultra-consistent bumper horse Claimantakinforgan;

    “His bumper form was rock solid and you would imagine he’ll be right up there if reproducing those form levels over hurdles.”

    “I hate the Cheltenham bumper with a passion as a rule, but he deserved to run there having won at Haydock and Ascot and was definitely near the top of the tree when it came to bumper performers out their last season.”

    “He’s a quick horse so I see no reason why two miles wouldn’t be his trip, although he did win a point to point over three so stepping up wouldn’t be completely out of the equation.”

    There is also hope that Pym, sent by his handler to the Ayr bumper he has landed in the past with the likes of Sprinter Sacre, can make into a top novice contender this term;

    “I couldn’t fault him at Ayr, he was visually impressive and beat some useful yardsticks that day. It’s a race we always like to target with something we think highly of, we took Sprinter Sacre there for his first outing, and it was nice that he showed what we were hoping for.”

    Henderson heads into the new season as the clear man to beat. A live chance of picking up all four feature races at the Cheltenham Festival, and a King George there to be won. If this wasn’t horse racing then a successful title defence would be a foregone formality. It could be a season to savour for the master off Seven Barrows, Henderson’s Heroes are just getting warmed up.

    Comment




    • Harry Fry, the master of Manor Farm and the man in control of one of the most burgeoning strings in the sport. The talent stabled in Seaborough grows in depth by the year as people latch on to the bandwagon rolling down the M5 to deepest Dorset, where the progressive handler is working his way towards the top of the training tree.

      Fry year by year is proving himself to be one of the most astute brains in the business. Last season saw him produce his best season to date, breaking the £1million prize money barrier for the first time.

      Still in possession of his youthful Head Boy charm and poise that we have become accustomed to since first coming to our attention as one of Paul Nicholl’s most trusted lieutenants during the halcyon days of Ditcheat. You would imagine a trip to the pub with Fry would be not only entertaining but an educational experience too.

      Military precision is the order of the day at Manor Farm and no stone is left unturned in channelling the right path to the top for each and every horse.

      There is no question with Fry that it is all about quality rather than quantity. Aggressive campaigning for the right character is mixed with careful nurturing for others which has seen Fry produce some of the most improved and most exciting horses in training over the last few seasons.

      The Stable is led into action once again by the diminutive stayer Unowhatimeanharry, the horse which broke the upwardly mobile handler’s Cheltenham Festival duck when claiming the Albert Bartlett in 2016 and went from strength to strength last term.

      The 9-year-old JP McManus representative was the division leader last season winning four times. However, there was an overriding disappointment as the apple of Fry’s eye failed to sparkle on his coronation at the Cheltenham Festival, managing only a battling third as Ruby Walsh and Nicholls Canyon swooped;

      “That was so gutting to see him not give a true account of himself, but we suspect he was not 100% and he wasn’t himself that day.”

      That was the second reversal of the week for Fry with a well fancied favourite, following the defeat of the ill-fated Neon Wolf in the Neptune, but it was the defeat of Harry which hurt the most;

      “It’s disappointing when you build up to one day, and obviously this was Harry’s moment and we had high hopes for him. I was just gutted for the horse really that we wasn’t able to bring out his A game.”

      However, Fry is quick to remind us how he managed to turn the tables on his Prestbury Park conqueror in their Punchestown rematch;

      “To bounce back like he did at Punchestown is the mark of a true champion.”

      With his authority restored after that trip across the Irish Sea, Harry looks to be the one to beat once again in the staying division, with all roads leading to righting his Cheltenham wrong this time around;

      “We will be working towards an identical path back to Cheltenham as last year. Starting at Newbury then to the Long Walk at Ascot, the Cleeve at Cheltenham and then back to the Cheltenham Festival.”

      And does he feel Harry still processes that knockout blow he delivered so often last term?

      “He’s summered well and come back in great form and were looking forward to what he’s got to offer this time around”

      A student of the sport and a shrewd placer of his horses, Fry selects races with expert pinpoint accuracy to maximise the strengths and potential in each of his growing string.

      He has a plan for every horse, reminiscent of his great teacher Paul Nicholls – who along with the many notable big Grade One successes – had the uncanny knack of winning the big prize on a Tuesday afternoon at Exeter.

      One horse which typifies this is Any Drama, who despite failing to make it to the top of the class in novice ranks last season, has a bullseye firmly placed on a Sunday in the middle of February;

      “He needs it soft so we’ll be picking up what we can around 2m4f when conditions suit, with the main aim potentially the National Spirit at Fontwell.”

      A mid-winter feature Fry firmly has his sights set on is the Ladbrokes Trophy, or to mere mortals, the Hennessy. Looking to fly the Seaborough flag at Newbury is the highly talented, if not delicate, American, a horse the handler has lofty ambitions for;

      “He looks to have a great profile for the Ladbrokes Trophy off a mark of 157. I would be disappointed if he wasn’t to go close off that mark and we will be using that as a guide to see if we stay down the handicap route or take a step up into the top staying chases if conditions are suitable.”

      As always, Fry’s Manor Farm base sees more inmates arrive by the month. This summer he has acquired Art Of Payroll from Sandra Hughes in Ireland and the talented Kylemore Lough from Kerry Lee, a horse he is very much looking forward to working with.

      “He did very well with Kerry Lee and he comes to me having already won a Grade One. He’s one I’m looking forward to training and getting started with and at the moment I’m still getting to know the horse.”

      Tragically Neon Wolf is no longer with us, and it’s a loss felt by the whole of the National Hunt fraternity, but hopefully with the abundance of exciting youngsters available at his disposal, one of them will be able to step up and fill the void.

      Leading the list of contenders are the novice pair of If the Cap Fits and Bullionaire.

      Of the Paul and Clare Rooney trained youngster, who has novice hurdling in his sights following his fifth in the Aintree bumper, Fry said;

      “He look’s a highly promising horse. He’s schooled well and jumps for fun.”

      He’s also just as bullish about Bullionaire, who caught many peoples eye last season;

      “He’s a lovely 4-year-old and and he has done very well over the summer. He’ll definitely make into a useful horse in time and should be up for winning.”

      Meanwhile Drumcliff and Minella Awards could have a date with the larger obstacles on the agenda at some point this term;

      “Drumcliff will jump a fence, and that may be this season, but we will go for the Silver Trophy at Chepstow first and try pick up a hurdle and then see where we go from then”

      “Minella Awards is certainly going to be a chaser at some point and he’s one we will have ready to go in the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock which will tell us more as to whether we stick to hurdles or hopefully, if everything goes according to plan, sent down the novice chasing route.”

      It certainly looks all systems go for another successful season for the master of Manor Farm, and it won’t be long till Harry is in the news once again. You know what I mean?

      Comment


      • Originally posted by jono View Post
        “The King George would be the main aim, followed by the Gold Cup and obviously the Jockey Club dangle that huge carrot by putting on the bonus. But just because the objective is Kempton and Christmas doesn’t mean you have to go to Haydock and there is other options we can look at.”
        Not too positive in a view of the Triple Crown.

        Comment


        • Thanks for posting those Jono. I might top up my bet on American for the Hennessy after reading that.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
            Thanks for posting those Jono. I might top up my bet on American for the Hennessy after reading that.
            I just had a panic because I couldn't find the odds. Forgot they've changed the name!

            I will be making my first ever trip to Newbury for this race.

            Comment


            • 1 Cause Of Causes Cross Country Chase(Win And Each Way) 14/03/2018 3 Places 1/4 Odds 10.00 To Run
              2 Apple's Jade Mares Hurdle (Win And Each Way) 13/03/2018 3 Places 1/4 Odds 4.00 To Run
              3 Yanworth JLT Novices Chase(Win And Each Way) 15/03/2018 3 Places 1/4 Odds 11.00 To Run
              4 Samcro Neptune Novices Hurdle (Win And Each Way) 14/03/2018 3 Places 1/4 Odds 17.00 To Run
              5 Douvan Cheltenham Gold Cup (Win And Each Way) 16/03/2018 3 Places 1/4 Odds 13.00 To Run
              6 Un De Sceaux Ryanair Chase (Win And Each Way) 15/03/2018 3 Places 1/4 Odds 6.00 To Run

              Comment


              • Originally posted by ryanh97 View Post
                Not too positive in a view of the Triple Crown.
                No, which is a shame for my antepost having 4pts on him for the triple crown.
                The more I think about it the more I think Sizing John may throw the spanner in the works for him running in the Betfair.

                Looking back at recent winners and how they went into the race:

                Cue Card - prep run at Exeter - Haldon Gold Cup or Wetherby - Charlie Hall Chase (start of Nov)
                Silviniaco Conti - prep run at Wetherby - Charlie Hall Chase (start of Nov)
                Kauto Star - prep run at Aintree - Old Roan Chase (end of Oct)
                Imperial Commander - no prep, straight there.

                I had initially thought they would go straight for the Betfair Chase but based on past winners/runners it seems like a prep run is usually used beforehand. If Nicky can get a prep run into Might Bite before hand I think the chances of him running at Haydock are better, as I cannot imagine they'd want to be taking on the Gold Cup winner on their first run of the season (even second perhaps), as much as I trust his ability and think he would still most likely win it's a risky and brave move for his run over fences outside of Novice company. Last thing he'll want is a really tough race or even worse a fall or mishap which could dent his confidence (and we've heard how important confidence is with MB with Henderson talking about this numerous times over the last few seasons). Particularly if that could dent his King George chances which is the main aim early doors.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
                  Thanks for posting those Jono. I might top up my bet on American for the Hennessy after reading that.
                  Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                  I just had a panic because I couldn't find the odds. Forgot they've changed the name!

                  I will be making my first ever trip to Newbury for this race.


                  I added : 1pt EW on American
                  followed by : 1pt American and Might Bite (King George) double at 101/1

                  Comment


                  • Hi Guys,

                    Been a while since I posted, after Aintree I pretty much slow down on the betting front and start all over again about this sort of time with the build up to Cheltenham. Hope you're all well.

                    MTOY (50/1 AP) aside it was a very tough Cheltenham festival for myself, as I'm sure it was for many, and I have decided to approach this one a tad more cautiously, however, some of the early talk on here has got me licking my lips already and, whilst I haven't had any early AP bets I don't think they are far away.

                    Some of you on here are making great claims for a few, one I really like is Nichols Canyon for the stayers' like many have said on here already. I can't really see past him, after that performance back in March. I think Cheltenham suits him more so than his following defeat by UKWIMH, and expect him to make it back to back Stayers' titles.

                    The only bet I have had so far in any race is the X-Country, backing split stakes both COC (9/1) & JO (10/1), connections are not afraid to run 2 of their horses against each other as we saw this year, so backing both using split stakes seems like the sensible option for now, however I am likely to back COC in any multiples I do as feel he is the more solid proposition of the 2.

                    I think the Champion Hurdle is likely to be a split stakes (60/40 ratio) job for me too, I can't see Buveur D'air losing to much, BUT, 'IF' Faugheen turns up (it's a big ask) sound then I in no way can ignore him either! 4/1 & 8/1 respectively, it may not break the bank, but i'm confident I'd be on the winner if both ran!

                    Supreme & Neptune Novices I currently don't have any major views on, though Getabird for the latter race makes appeal currently, and interesting to see Annamix mentioned as have seen some other views on this one that it is highly thought of, but it's Mullins bingo again so won't be investing heavily at this current stage.

                    Not even entertaining the Novice Chase races yet, some exciting and talented prospects but they need to jump a fence first!

                    Altior for the QMCC, can't see Douvan staying at 2m, and I have this niggly doubt that he'll even stay over fences, no idea why, but back of my mind something is telling me to not bother with him currently.

                    The Ryainair I am really hoping VVM goes for, feel like they've wasted enough time with her over hurdles, as good as she is, but she's a brilliant jumper over fences and deserves her crack at it IMO.

                    I think Fayonagh should go for the Mares' Novices hurdle over the Supreme too, think this is her best chance of winning a race (provided she can jump a hurdle well enough).

                    The Gold Cup is currently wide open, top 4 or 5 in the market I currently can't split, but personally I'd love Might Bite to go and do the business, though I feel he is likely to win the King George then struggle in this, but I'm hoping he can do the double, or even the triple crown ;-)

                    That's basically where I am at, though I'm going to struggle following over the winter as I'm travelling for 2 months in Australia, fingers crossed the Wi-Fi is good!!!

                    Comment


                    • First post here but been reading for while and certainly getting some useful advice...

                      Its nearly October so first ante post bets struck:

                      BVD 2pts WIN 4-1 B365
                      CoC 2Pts WIN 9-1 B365

                      Been mentioned countless times in the thread already. But for me (and many others) look the standout horses for their price and target at the moment. Finians Oscar is another I'm already tempted by, Arkle or JLT....That's the conundrum!

                      Will keep posting throughout the season ahead, looking forward to it!

                      Comment


                      • Welcome back CoD

                        On the Stayers hurdle: I was surprised that Nichols Canyon is 2 years younger than UNWIMH - NC seems to have been around for an age. The 7/1 looks huge when you consider he's defending champ, trained by WPM, ridden by Ruby, will only be 8 yrs old and doesn't have any question marks around his festival target.

                        I'm going to have to start chipping away at NC, or at least start putting him in some multiples.


                        Welcome Innoko

                        Comment


                        • I have been chipping away at the 9/1 on COC over last few months. Have a nice return and still loading whilst at 9s on 365! I also think the stayers will be another good battle between NC and UKWIMH.

                          Comment


                          • Welcome back CoD. Welcome Innoko.

                            I am so excited - has anyone else come home to the RUK "magazine"... there is an interview with Ruby Walsh in with 5 stories for the season... I will pick out some key quotes for anyone that hasn't got it...

                            First bit he talks about the Gold Cup.... "open year", "isn't a stand out yet and one might not emerge because of the depth". "God willing, Djakadam will line up in March and try and emulate The Fellow, who was second twice and fourth before winning the Gold Cup at his 4th attempt, while Yorkhill will also be in the shake-up for top honours and always performs at Cheltenham"

                            Secondly - "The flawless Altior against a rejuvanted Douvan will be some head to head. We might have to wait until trhe Champion Chase at Cheltenham as both horses cvould remain at home in England and IReland respectively - but it'll be worth the wait." goes on to say ""The bookies have Altior as the favourite at the time of writing, but I wouldn't want to swap Douvan"

                            Third thing was about Faugheen. "I really respect Buveur D'air", "The likes of Labaik and Melon might stake a claim but they are not up to Fauugheen's level, I think he's one hell of a horse"

                            The other two bits weren't as exciting... talking about the Trainers and Jockeys championships....

                            I will post these in each individual thread actually for discussion..... I AM GOING TO BURST

                            Comment


                            • Those nice people at Skybet have been giving me a free fiver every week since March and I've had every fiver of Auvergnat for the Cross Country and now have a half decent position.
                              Have to say when I started I wasn't expecting CoC to run in this, as a triple winner at the festival I thought they'd set their sights higher and he really does look the one they all have to beat, however, Auvergnat showed much promise in his debut banks season especially when winning the PP Hogan and a year stronger can improve, but CoC a massive runner...

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                                Those nice people at Skybet have been giving me a free fiver every week since March and I've had every fiver of Auvergnat for the Cross Country and now have a half decent position.
                                Have to say when I started I wasn't expecting CoC to run in this, as a triple winner at the festival I thought they'd set their sights higher and he really does look the one they all have to beat, however, Auvergnat showed much promise in his debut banks season especially when winning the PP Hogan and a year stronger can improve, but CoC a massive runner...
                                I've asked B365 to add Auvergnaut to their XC market, without any luck. They are the only firm who are offering 1/4 odds ew terms of those that have priced it up. Auvergnaut is definitely over priced at 16/1!

                                Comment

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