Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[MrMcGoldrick]

Couldn't remember Min winning a chase tbh, will be difficult to weigh up such a lack of experience though, and it certainly isn't reflected in his price quotes, connections dictate lower prices than reasonable I suppose.

[Faugheen_Machine]

But why, Isty? You'd be telling the people who pay the money that they aren't allowed options. I can just about see it for 5 day entries but for early closers it would be totally wrong. Most of the Grade Ones at Cheltenham close before potential runners have had their prep race so to limit entries then would be a nonsense.
People who try to second guess Willie (or Gordon or the O'Learys for that matter) should be fully aware that, to give his owners the best chance, he doesn't make up his mind until the last minute so to whinge when an eleven month old bet doesn't get a run is just pointless. The Vautour incident was unfortunate but was very much a one off because of Ricci's well-intentioned but foolish comments.

I find that it's best just to ignore WPM runners ante post - unless they are big priced novices.

[Kevloaf]

Couldn't remember Min winning a chase tbh, will be difficult to weigh up such a lack of experience though, and it certainly isn't reflected in his price quotes, connections dictate lower prices than reasonable I suppose.

I guess if you take the view (that plenty did have) that he was a good bet to beat Altior in the Arkle, given Altior's performance in that and the difference in price between the two it isn't a huge leap of faith to see why the price is what it is.

I was firmly in the 'Altior is better' and would have liked to have seen them match up to prove it either way. If Douvan doesn't run in the CC, then Min would step in and 12/1 is a decent each way price - however I wouldn't take 12/1 about a horse I think would be running for a place, this far out, who is coming back from an injury that might not even turn up.

I wonder if they'd revert him back to hurdles - best price only 16/1 for that

[Brital]

Min won a couple of Novice chases at the end of last year.
He beat Ordinary World at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. It was why I backed OW without Altior in the Arkle, cos there was no way he was ridden to win that day.

[Istabraq]

But why, Isty? You'd be telling the people who pay the money that they aren't allowed options. I can just about see it for 5 day entries but for early closers it would be totally wrong. Most of the Grade Ones at Cheltenham close before potential runners have had their prep race so to limit entries then would be a nonsense.
People who try to second guess Willie (or Gordon or the O'Learys for that matter) should be fully aware that, to give his owners the best chance, he doesn't make up his mind until the last minute so to whinge when an eleven month old bet doesn't get a run is just pointless. The Vautour incident was unfortunate but was very much a one off because of Ricci's well-intentioned but foolish comments.

The industry is closely alligned to gambling therefore those within it have obligations to every link in that chain, including punters, how many options is reasonable ?
My issue isn't with multiple entries well ahead of the race, but I used the VVM example because she was declared for six races at each 5 day dec stage, how connections don't know whether a horse is heading for a 2m hurdle race or 3m chase is beyond me....

[Faugheen_Machine]

The industry is closely alligned to gambling therefore those within it have obligations to every link in that chain, including punters, how many options is reasonable ?
My issue isn't with multiple entries well ahead of the race, but I used the VVM example because she was declared for six races at each 5 day dec stage, how connections don't know whether a horse is heading for a 2m hurdle race or 3m chase is beyond me....

I agree Ista. WPM has shown disdain towards punters on several occasions in the past - the VVM fiasco at Sandown last season was another example.

[Istabraq]

FM, I was there that day, looking down on the parade ring and suddenly a blanket goes over the horse and he's led off back to the stables, disgraceful.
Disregard for racegoers and for the betting industry...

[jono]

I think Buveur D'air will take some beating next season, still only 6 years old, lightly raced and plenty of improvement to come.

Fully agree with this FM - I wasn't 100% convinced after Cheltenham but Aintree just confirmed how much superior this horse is and could mix it with the last few runnings of the CH. Very hard to see what can trouble him next year considering we should see more improvement from age and the fact he'll have a proper champion hurdle campaign and not a last minute switch.

Briefly on Yanworth - Kev would you not be worried about him having that extra season over hurdles, would be 8 at the festival next year. There was a good article on how these horses (who stay more an extra year+ over hurdles before chasing) fare before the festival this year:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/when-classy-hurdlers-go-chasing/

The horses highlighted from this season were:

In the current season, we have seven such horses and the early returns have been ordinary. The group comprises Taglietelle, Identity Thief, Alpha Des Obeaux, Diamond King, Lieutenant Colonel, Gwencily Berbas and Briar Hill

Though not a theory that should rule out a horse entirely I do agree with the majority of it (even though i was backing ADO!) and would at this stage make me look more towards the likes of Finains Oscar, Neon Wolf, Willoughby Court etc than Yanworth - who is currently fav (albeit not by much) and very likely to be around the head of the market all season*

[Kevloaf]

Yeah it would put me off a bit jono, for him to be the winner of the race. Certainly a stat I'd forgotten about a bit, but I am sure there are expections (Thistlecrack?) so I wouldn't let it put me off entirely. I'm obviously not suggesting he is my idea of the winner of any race at all yet, we'd need to see him jumping fences for starters ... but I do think taking double figures, you'll have a good chance of beating the SP and the target seems 'obvious' to me. For the way I punt and will continue to do, he's around the cusp of what I'd consider backing at the moment... because I just think he'll shorten up and that creates options moving forwards.

FO, WC and NW will all be very high on my 'to follow' list, but inevitably (as with Yanworth I suppose) they aren't likely to get missed in any markets at any stage...

[jono]

I'm obviously not suggesting he is my idea of the winner of any race at all yet

Haha, yeah I only picked it out having seen him in your yankee and a couple of other mentions through the forum. I think you're right in the JLT being the most likely target, and unless he just doesn't take to fences (something I do think could happen), it's not hard to see his price halving within just a couple of small field novice chase wins so on that basis it's hard to argue getting him onside sooner rather than later.

[Kevloaf]

Yorkhill the main danger to Buveur D'air now I'd say after that interview from Mullins

He has mentioned it during this season already... 33/1 down to 20s in a matter of minutes haha

[jono]

Have to say i'd be really disappointed if they revert back over hurdles with Yorkhill. Watching him in his novice hurdle career he looked for all the world a future chaser and I couldnt wait to see him over a fence. He's got the build and physique of one, was bred to be one, was bought to be a chaser and Gold Cup horse. Everything points to that being his ideal discipline. Doesn't always work out like that of course but you can't say he hasn't taken to fences? 3 from 4 including a grade 1 JLT win at the festival which was always the one main aim for the season - which he was succesful at.

He surely only ran yesterday for the trainers title and if Willie was well clear like previous years he wouldn't have been anywhere near that race! They hoped despite all the concerns going that way he'd have enough to win still and he very nearly did. Plus Road to Respect is a good horse on an upward curve - for all the problems he had through the race i don't think it'll end up looking the worst result in time. That race yesterday was a world away from the settled straight jumping performance in the JLT.

The difficulty will be plotting a route for the horse next year over fences. Mullins has favoured the John Durkan as the starting point for his Gold Cup horses (2m4) but at Punchestown that looks off the cards and it's hard to see them pitching him straight into a 3m race next year.

Naas have a 2m chase early Nov and Navan a 2m4 handicap chase early December. Then you obviously have the Lexus and Gold Cup in Feb to target over 3miles both at Leopardstown. If needed you could look at travelling over to the UK perhaps (they travelled over for the Tolworth in his novice hurdle season) and take in something like the Aintree 3m race early December (Don Poli won 2 years back) or the BetBright Chase on Trials day? So there are options for the horse even if it is not ideal.

I can't remember who on here said that jumping left can often be a sign of an injury or underlying issue, Faugheen or Ista perhaps? Would reverting back to hurdles help that much in that regard?

Keep him left handed, aimed around the Gold Cup and I don't see that much of an issue. Bryan Cooper put it better than anyone else after the race:

It's hard to know what would have happened, but if Ruby had jumped the last any way well he would have won. He has given away so many lengths and is still on the bridle turning into the straight. He (Yorkhill) obviously has a massive engine. He had me cooked everywhere

If that was left handed he would have won easily, and the step up to 3miles would have looked ideal from here on in. A horse with plenty of risk involved but if everything falls right for him on the day he's a superstar. I'm adamant we'll see the horse at his best over fences rather than hurdles - he's just a horse who has to have a specific set of conditions to excel - put him outside of these conditions and he's clearly a level below his best

[Kevloaf]

If you had to pick now a horse to win the Gold CUp for Mullins/Walsh, would you want your money on Yorkhill or Douvan?

I think Yorkhill is being made out to be a superstar way before he is due that credit. I won't ever forget that they thought Bellshill was a more talented horse than Yorkhill and obviously that looks like it was wrong, but "square peg, round hole" springs to mind with Yorkhill. How many horses have actually EVER been good enough to win a CH and a Gold Cup. EVER, we must be talking less than 10? He isn't even the most talented horse in the yard for me. "Just doing enough" is a dangerous phrase as you know and having just watched the race back, how on earth you'd get Yorkhill to settle well enough to see out 3m2f at Cheltenham is beyond me.

As another quirky type you'd have to put Might Bite miles clear of Yorkhill in terms of winning a Gold Cup!

[jono]

If you had to pick now a horse to win the Gold Cup for Mullins/Walsh, would you want your money on Yorkhill or Douvan?

I actually think it's a tough call, though I would side with Douvan - less risk involved (in terms of the horses versatility, settling etc) and I do think he is the most talented horse in the yard. However if you side with Douvan for the Gold Cup you're also taking plenty of risk? He has none of the quirks of Yorkhill but if you look at a few factors playing devils advocate:

Distance - never raced beyond 17F so the 26.5F of the Gold Cup is a big question mark for him. He settles very well in his races, can be ridden in almost anyway and does look like he'll be able to at least cope with 2m4 - 3m but we're only basing that as well on the connections talk aren't we? Right now he's got as many questions marks with the distance as Yorkhill has who has raced over the middle distance at least.

Form - That constant beating of Sizing John doesn't look bad now hey! However if you watched all of Douvan's races without any opinion from connections about him/how good he could be or idea on who trained him etc - would he look the best horse Willie has ever trained? A victim of not having the quality of opposition to show him at his best of course but I'm not sure you would - his jumping isn't foot perfect that's for sure. Compare him to say some of the performances Vautour put in? That's not meant to be bashing the horse - again I think he is likely to be right up there - just that again we are basing how good he is at least on some part to how highly connections rate him and him being there best ever. You have to take that onboard and it does mean something when the likes of Willie, Ruby etc say that but is it no different to Ruby saying Yorkhill is all over a Gold Cup Horse?

Track - he would have won the Queen Mother without the injury i'm not for anyway saying otherwise but it's hard to argue against the fact that his least impressive (if you can call them that - the time of his Arkle win was very good) have been at the track. Certainly not an issue in my eyes or a negative but just comparing against Yorkhill - Yorkhill has shown his very best form at the track both years at the festival, importantly settling and jumping the best he has ever done.

I won't ever forget that they thought Bellshill was a more talented horse than Yorkhill and obviously that looks like it was wrong, but "square peg, round hole" springs to mind with Yorkhill

True and the way Bellshill has progressed it doesn't look great on Yorkhill however not all horses will look a superstar straight away and especially in their novice hurdle season - the rate of improvement can vary. By the time of the festival '16 - wasn't it clear cut Yorkhill was a cut above Bellshill hence he took in the Neptune where connections were hugely confident and Bellshill made way as second string in the Supreme? Not quite the same but - the start of the 2014 Allez Colombieres was the main Ricci horse and the number one hype horse. Unfortunately we'll never know how good he was and you never know now he could have been the best ever but without barely a mention of him whilst AC was around (unless I am wrong here but I don't remember hearing about him at the time) - it was only after his demise that Douvan came on the scene as was then starting to get talked up so highly?

How many horses have actually EVER been good enough to win a CH and a Gold Cup. EVER, we must be talking less than 10?

I agree but he hasn't actually won a CH yet and I think a race between Buveur D'Air would be very close. He could fall short in both races of course and is no given for either.

As another quirky type you'd have to put Might Bite miles clear of Yorkhill in terms of winning a Gold Cup!

Might Bite would be my pick out of all three, right now if you put a gun to my head (I still think either the 40/1 Triple Crown or backing each race straight after each race is a good price). If all three were campaigned for the GC though, all looked to get 3miles and on form i'd probably side with Douvan though

[Old Vic]

Coney Island - fill your boots