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Are you thinking about the Albert Bartlett for either? Not knocking any bets a treble figure odds but I'd have considered....
Red Jack Ballymore / Samcro Supreme and Monalee - 3535/1 BFSB
Red Jack Supreme / Samcro Ballymore and Monalee - 1007/1 WH
Well that's a kick in the stones.. Was looking more towards the second of the two, with the slight possibility of the first one happening. Never suspected a regular ol accume would be that much bigger considering Sky phrase it as a 'special.'
Might have to throw a tenner on with Hills just to save some face now..
I'll be taking on Tin Soldier tomorrow at Gowran, he looks far too short for me on his chasing debut. Himself and Monbeg Notorious both have form tied in with Moulin A Vent, and on that form line there is very little between them. MN is a big, proper chasing type and 9/4 with 365 has tempted me.
I'll be taking on Tin Soldier tomorrow at Gowran, he looks far too short for me on his chasing debut. Himself and Monbeg Notorious both have form tied in with Moulin A Vent, and on that form line there is very little between them. MN is a big, proper chasing type and 9/4 with 365 has tempted me.
For what it's worth I'd agree tomorrow he's too short (tin soldier). One to follow later up in trip though and ideally he won't win, so I can get a price in him another day.
https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
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For what it's worth I'd agree tomorrow he's too short (tin soldier). One to follow later up in trip though and ideally he won't win, so I can get a price in him another day.
Agree he definitely wants further, the same could be said for Monbeg Notorious however, he was off the bridle a long way out last time but stayed on best. Still couldn't resist taking the 9/4.
Look at petit mouchoir. He's gone out by around 2pts form 10s to 12s as a result of a setback and less possibility of making it there.
In regards to Annamix I'm not too sure on that example, as his price hasn't contracted because he hasn't yet been injured, his price has contracted because of weight of money. And you deffinately get less value on novice hurdlers (with well known connections) that have already ran. Imo because you have no idea what the opposition will be . I will happily admit I wouldn't have heard of labaik , i knew a little of finians Oscar and nothing of neon wolf this time last year
Agreed Scooby on Peitit Mouchoir whose odds increased I believe from best price 8 to 12/1 (well over 25%). Also Archie in looking at the difference between AP prices just before NRNB would flag the 'risk of not making the Festival' % built into the AP price at that time, which I guestimated at 10%.
Scooby, apologies for not being clear with the Annamix example, the name of the horse is not important. Let's say a novice horse is called Joe Blogs and is priced up preseason @ 20/1 (any race). I'd love to know why you think risk of injury is not included in the price just because Joe is a novice? I'm trying to separate the 'not make it to the Festival through injury' from all other factors that make up the AP price.
Good point Archie that comparing the AP price the day before the NRNB price would give you the % for that time...for which I guestimated 10%. Also agree Scooby that Petit Mouchir gives an example of the impact on price from risk of missing the Festival through injury, although I'm pretty sure he went from best price 8/1 to 12/1 (50% increase?)after his injury.
Apologies Scooby for the Annamix example, the name really isn't important. Let's say a novice called Joe Bloggs is 20/1 preseason any race, are you saying the bookies have barely included risk of injury in this price just because they are a novice?
No help there I'm afraid. Can't even find the RequestABet market on site at the moment, I wonder have they removed it? They seem to update it quite regularly so could be in a state of transition.
Starting to like the look of a fiver free bet trble I put on. Annamix (Supreme) 12/1, Samcro (Neptune) 14/1 and Finians Oscar (JLT - don't start Kev ) 10/1. Would pay £10,750
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) 10/1. Would pay £10,750
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