Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[Scooby91]

Punchestown and Aintree form of horses that raced at Cheltenham I am always wary of. If Percy did run his race at Punchestown you'd have to give Champagne Classic a rating close to 170 which I doubt is true. Percy's Hurdle mark is accurate though as we know this from his handicap win in the Pertemps.

Champagne classic and tin soldier back up each other's form in that race though. I believe he ran his race or close too it for what it's worth .

[JackieMoon33]

Champagne classic and tin soldier back up each other's form in that race though. I believe he ran his race or close too it for what it's worth .

At the time of the race Percy was rated 159 after his Cheltenham win (which should be accurate). Champagne Classic beat him by 14 lengths so you're saying he was a 170+ novice hurdler?

[Scooby91]

At the time of the race Percy was rated 159 after his Cheltenham win (which should be accurate). Champagne Classic beat him by 14 lengths so you're saying he was a 170+ novice hurdler?

No I don't think presenting percy is a 159 hurdler what so ever. He won a Pertemps beating Barney dwan, big step from handicap to grade 1 company

[JackieMoon33]

No I don't think presenting percy is a 159 hurdler what so ever. He won a Pertemps beating Barney dwan, big step from handicap to grade 1 company

But his rating of 159 is based on a competitive handicap win at the Cheltenham festival. You don't get a more accurate assessment than that as you know all the runners are trying.

If we reverse this from Champagne Classics mark of 151. That means Percy (if he run his race) is actually only a mid 130's horse yet he won the Pertemps off 146.

I'm not seeing the logic here.

[Scooby91]

But his rating of 159 is based on a competitive handicap win at the Cheltenham festival. You don't get a more accurate assessment than that as you know all the runners are trying.

If we reverse this from Champagne Classics mark of 151. That means Percy (if he run his race) is actually only a mid 130's horse yet he won the Pertemps off 146.

I'm not seeing the logic here.

I personally don't work it out at a pound a length over 3 miles.
Penhill -Monalee ran simular races to there albert bartlett runs
Tin soldier- champagne classic have met each other a few times and not too much between them. Champagne classic was on the up he won a martin pipe that worked out very well and he has improved for the spring ground.

Presenting percy has beat no horse of any note what so ever over hurdles, where they pluck 159 from after beating Barney dwan, dury duty and the tourard man in a Pertemps is beyond me.

I guess we beg to differ which is fine,

[JackieMoon33]

I personally don't work it out at a pound a length over 3 miles.
Penhill -Monalee ran simular races to there albert bartlett runs
Tin soldier- champagne classic have met each other a few times and not too much between them. Champagne classic was on the up he won a martin pipe that worked out very well and he has improved for the spring ground.

Presenting percy has beat no horse of any note what so ever over hurdles, where they pluck 159 from after beating Barney dwan, dury duty and the tourard man in a Pertemps is beyond me.

I guess we beg to differ which is fine,

Don't worry the Missus disagrees with me daily!

The only thing with this scenario is that there are clear facts on offer in the form of ratings. Percy is probably not 159 but he certainly would have had to run to 146 to win the Pertemps as you don't win a Cheltenham handicap running below your mark (you usually need pounds in hand). Regardless of who he beat in the Pertemps, it was a handicap so all the 'bad' horses he beat were weighted accordingly.

I'm happy to end the discussion for the sake of other posters though

[Scooby91]

I'm happy to end the discussion for the sake of other posters though [/QUOTE]



That, and my dinners ready lol.

[BigChaang]

Lucky 31 . today . - 1. Mengli khan - supreme - 16-1
- 2. Footpad - arkle - 6-1
- 3. Slate house - ballymore - 20-1
- 4. Monalee - r.s.a. - 8-1
- 5. On the blindside - al bertlett - 16-1.

[paz247]

Ew Acca
Beuveur 5s, Espoir D’allen 14s, Josies 12s, Nichols C 6s and Might B 5s

Also
Stay Humble 25s, Barcardys (rsa 16s), Nichols C 6s, Next Des (AB hur 14s), Josies 8s

[Kevloaf]

Ew Acca
Beuveur 5s, Espoir D’allen 14s, Josies 12s, Nichols C 6s and Might B 5s

Also
Stay Humble 25s, Barcardys (rsa 16s), Nichols C 6s, Next Des (AB hur 14s), Josies 8s

I'm always reluctant to not have the best price I can... big difference on josies there between the bookies.

Im also scared to put an acca on though I'm all about the Yankee!

[paz247]

Same bookies Kevloaf, 8s upto and after run over Hurdles, then 12s after Risk Of Thunder run and now 10s

[Kevloaf]

Same bookies Kevloaf, 8s upto and after run over Hurdles, then 12s after Risk Of Thunder run and now 10s

Aaah, I thought you'd placed them today!

Makes sense now!

[Robante]

Interesting blog this - https://polzeathratings.wordpress.com

He’s on the fence about Finian’s, and though he suggests Faugheen might be vulnerable in a goodish ground Champion you could say the same about Buveur D’air so not sure which horse would be challenging either. Most interesting comments for me revolve around Slate House and Apples Shakira. I’m with him on Slate House, just think he’s really smart and with the potential to improve further for a trip I’ve had another 2pts on at 16s any race (with Paddy). He’s very sceptical of Apple’s Shakira and I agree that of all the current prices 4/1 is mad. She beat Gumball comfortably in atrocious conditions, but with so many horses still to come out for that race who knows what that form amounts to

[jkite16]

For me, I don't see much value in the 'any race' markets anymore, far too many bookies have gone too short too soon.

I had a look through my book for last year, and am now going to hold out for the 'festival countdown specials' from Skybet. A couple of my bigger wins last year came through that - Melon, Petit Mouchoir, DDS, UNWIMH and Thistlecrack (void) all to place (3 places) - at 25/1. There wasn't a limit on what I could have on this, but it settled at 10/1 which I thought was still very good value considering 3 of the 4 went off favourite.

It won't be everyones cup of tea, but they do have some crackers around Christmas time (pardon the pun), so could be worth keeping an eye out!

[jkite16]

For me, I don't see much value in the 'any race' markets anymore, far too many bookies have gone too short too soon.

I had a look through my book for last year, and am now going to hold out for the 'festival countdown specials' from Skybet. A couple of my bigger wins last year came through that - Melon, Petit Mouchoir, DDS, UNWIMH and Thistlecrack (void) all to place (3 places) - at 25/1. There wasn't a limit on what I could have on this, but it settled at 10/1 which I thought was still very good value considering 3 of the 4 went off favourite.

It won't be everyones cup of tea, but they do have some crackers around Christmas time (pardon the pun), so could be worth keeping an eye out!

Speaking of which - just placed 3pts on the following:

Altior, Yorkhill, UNWIMH, Mightbite, Footpad and Lets Dance all to place (3 places) @ 25/1.

Lets hope they all make it there safe and sound... And place