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Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine
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Yep, so lay him at 1.05 in running then back him at 20 when he turns right and something goes past him.... -
Whether or not we think MB could win the gold cup, to go back to my comparison of being the same price as Djakadam, I really don't understand. You've got a horse with one hell of an engine with his target probably obvious compared with Djakadam who has tried and failed 3 times, his target is up in the air as he could very much be a Ryanair horse and who looks very exposed now. I know i'd rather have a score on.Comment
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I'm more of the opinion that Djakadam is a terrible price, and should be around 33/1, than MB is a great price.
But then again, I've never been a fan of Djakadam!Comment
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Yep agreed, Mullins said the horse had never had a better prep yet finished further off the winner than he did in his previous 2 attempts, I'd say it's extremely unlikely he'll head down that route next year, in fact, given his poor win record it wouldn't surprise me if he was retired or sold, Ricci is only interested in winning/dominating and Djakadam has proved several times he's not up to it.
What really surprised me was the confidence behind him in the days leading up to the race, was he 3/1 fav in the end ?
I getbthe renewed confidence in the yard after Thursday but 3/1, really ?Comment
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I have backed them both alreadyI CAN see the case, but those prices are skinny enough considering we have 360 days to go..... I haven't been put off by ante post at all, and I'll go in to detail later on in the week... but there is no rush to do anything before Aintree is there?
but I certainly wouldn't advocate anyone needing to rush in to get these prices before the relevant festivals. There's an argument even a strong run from CoC in the National may not have an effect on the Cross Country market and NC will surely bypass Aintree so a good 5/6 weeks to wait until Punchestown for his next run.
Personally I don't see the horse being hard to train or falling out of love with the game as in most horses that come into this discipline like you say, but instead a horse that Elliott has full confidence in (in terms of he'll get him right in the Spring) so is VERY well handled/targeted throughout the Winter to just get his mark down year on year for whatever the target is that season. Despite a fair amount of miles on the clock in a lot of big races, the vast majority of his races over the last 3 or so years have been a mix of easy tallied off rides and (deliberately) short trips so wouldn't be as taxing when just looking at the numbers. I took the Cross Country entry as Elliott looking to replicate Silver Birch's prep run for the National but it turns out he won very easily. Jamie Codd on the FFP seemed confident CoC could continue on in this sphere for the next few years and have a chance to dominate.Anyone think CoC might be hard to train ? The Cross Country is often a last resort for horses who look out of love with the game. If they can keep him interested he could dominate but he has a lot of miles on the clock.
I actually think Might Bite at 14's is a good price. Certain target, whatever you say against him and how you see that finish he's won an RSA, Nico onboard who knows how to win the Gold Cup on a horse very similar to Might Bite.I'm more of the opinion that Djakadam is a terrible price, and should be around 33/1, than MB is a great price
I think they should give Djakadam a go in the Ryanair, even if he would likely be the second string in the race. Bit harsh Ista on retiring/selling him isn't it? They tend to keep the horses around (Champagne Fever) and he's too young to retire - I'd be amazed if they did that.
Can see the appeal. I'll be against Defi Du Seuil as a 5 year old unless he does something extraordinary in his prep runs next year as much as I like him. You have to write off Faugheen and Annie but surely Willie will be making sure he has a strong chance in the race next year after a poor standard this year? No chance he tries relying on getting those 2 back again as his main hopes this year and risk the same outcome...Buveur D'air for CH 5/1 (I'm going to have a bet a week on him until the 5/1 is gone)Comment
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where are you getting a price for COC for the x country? cant see this market priced up anywhereOriginally posted by jono View PostSo my 'enviable' position on Death Duty doesn't look so string now then
Trip/Ground/Track/Overhyped? I've far from given up but not the performance I wanted to see (with RSA 2018 in mind i'd have been more than happy with a performance similar to No More Heroes 3rd).
2 bets stand out to me now, primarily the former:
Nichols Canyon - Stayers Hurdle - 8/1
Think he can be the key player in this division. Looks to have found his trip. No doubts on stamina on how fast the race was run with Cole Harden. Still only 7. Owner has previous with this type of horse. And the key - no doubt whatsoever in target.
Cause of Causes - Cross Country - 10/1
Completely got him wrong this race. 'Only 9' which compared to others in the division is young / on par. Josies Orders was my best fancy of the festival last year before getting injured but at the same age, with injury to comeback from i'm wary of his chances at least for now and there's a 0% reason why you'd back JO until next Winter before the Cross Country races kick in. Auvergnant the other for Bolger will improve being young for this sphere but I see nothing from this years race to be able to beat CoC again. Can see Elliott keeping him to these races for the next 2-3 years alongside nationals. Don't see any other race they'd go for at the festival and his festival record is ridiculous. Josies Orders was 4/1 after last years race. Big price for me...
Yorkhill I want to follow whichever race but i'll let the dust settle and it'll be the usual Mullins merry go round!Comment
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I think all the word is that Douvan should make a full recovery.
Knowing how they do things I wouldnt be surprised if he starts back over hurdles. I predict therefore that in addition to the 3 chases the champion hurdle will at some stage come under consideration....Comment
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cheers! there is also 40/1 for the grand national/cross country double here for anyone that fancies it... https://www.skybet.com/horse-racing/...st-rules-applyComment
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You'd be far better off taking 16/1 cause of Causes and putting all winnings on him for the Cross Country - you'd probably get 100/1.Comment
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Are you going to up the Ante , next year Mayo ?? - 3m Yankee ?.Comment
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I know it's Mullins again, but Yorkhill at 33/1 looks overpriced for the Champion Hurdle should they revert back.
Apple's Jade for the Stayers too.
Also going to be backing both CoC & Josie's Orders both 10/1 in singles, possibly both will run, if not I'm sure one will run and go close.Comment
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I've had a small each way bet on Saphir du Rheu - 66-1 , and Bellshill - 50-1 , ( think you can get 66-1 with L/brokes ),for the Gold cup. Although Bellshill was not highly thought of this year , 3rd in the R.S.A chase is good form , and maybe the step up in trip is what Bellshill needs , I will have another bet soon .Comment
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I did another couple of L.15's today for cheltn. - 1. - Defi du Seuil - 8-1 - ch. hdl
2. - Douvan - 3-1 - ch. chs
3. - Nichols canyon -6-1 - styrs hdl
4. - Bellshill - 50-1. - g.cup
and ..
1.- Defi du seuil - 8-1- ch.hdl
2.- Altior - 7-4- ch. chs
3. N. canyon - 6-1 styers hdl
4. Might bite -10-1 g.cup . only 48 weeks to go!Comment
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