Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[Scooby91]

Having only just become aware of the ladbrokes any race market I’ve just added Mount Mews at 20/1. Seems a really fair price given that he looks likely to go for a handicap (either the novice chase on day 1 or coral cup been touted)

A little dangerous with connections and aintree looming. I would like him In the novice handicap chase though. The right trip and he travels very well

[Robbante]

A little dangerous with connections and aintree looming. I would like him In the novice handicap chase though. The right trip and he travels very well

True, think he’s on a great mark though and quotes from connections a few days ago suggested he’d go and one of those two races the plan. Would also like him in the close bros

[Viking Flagship]

Mount Mews on 140, do we think that gets in the Close Bros? I was looking earlier and the range last year was only 3lb (137-140) and 4lb the year before (136-140). That would suggest that even 141 could be on the cusp this year. This data is under the old rating bands though and perhaps at that level they're more compressed?

[Robbante]

Mount Mews on 140, do we think that gets in the Close Bros? I was looking earlier and the range last year was only 3lb (137-140) and 4lb the year before (136-140). That would suggest that even 141 could be on the cusp this year. This data is under the old rating bands though and perhaps at that level they're more compressed?

141-145 I was thinking would get in, he could get bumped a lb between now and then on collateral. Coral cup maybe their back up if not

[Viking Flagship]

141-145 I was thinking would get in, he could get bumped a lb between now and then on collateral. Coral cup maybe their back up if not

Yes that was about my thinking too. The reason I was looking this up earlier was that I was weighing up the 16/1 (not nrnb) on Divine Spear, but he's been dropped to 141 and I'm not sure it's nailed on that he gets in.

Anyway I realise this is the wrong thread for this so I'll shut up!

[SeanRock]

Impact Factor 16/1 e/w for the Martin Pipe.

As i mentioned in the race thread he has good form lines in being runner up to Getabird & Paloma Blue. The form of his win at Punchestown last time out has been franked with the 2nd & 3rd winning since. A current mark of 132 seems fair. He's entered for Naas on Sunday and I'm wondering if that is some late tactical placing from Jessy in trying to avoid a hike in the weights with them due next week

[kinloch brae]

This is a list of all my ante post bets so far. Rather than going into individual threads I will put a bit of working on this thread.

Supreme - Real Steel 20/1

Terrible race for me and this one is unlikely to change things. Inexplicably lost ground early last time and then rushed up too quickly. Looked to be toiling when taking a nasty fall. Seems as if he will be given another chance but I am not hopeful. Not at all tempted by Getabird at current prices.

Arkle - Footpad 10/1 & Sceau Royal 8/1 (both EW)

Sceau Royal has the form and Footpad has the style. Hard to see past both of them.

Champion Hurdle - Buveur D'Air 5/1

Stepped in when Hills pushed him out. Not worried at all by a horse who couldn't beat a poorly ridden Arctic Fire by less than two lengths and that was in his prime. I think Buveur D'Air was always going to be much too good for him. Just a concern that Geraghty might be a shade over confident as he was at Kempton.

National Hunt Chase - Ms Parfois 20/1 (EW NRNBG)

Probably needs to find 7lbs but is progressive and has some course form. The longer trip might well be a plus. Race looks up for grabs.

Ballymore - On The Blind Side 12/1

Like many I thought this was an Albert Bartlett horse after Cheltenham but his subsequent win at Sandown is arguably the best piece of novice form and I couldn't miss him here. Hopefully, the setback has just given him a nice break. Samcro is the one who has to step up, particularly with the likely quicker ground being an unknown.

RSA - Presenting Percy 12/1

If he were mine I would be thinking seriously about the Gold Cup so very disappointing if he doesn't figure here. A hold up horse he will obviously need some luck in running.

Fred Winter - Mitchouka 16/1 (NRNB)

Not quite up to winning a Triumph but travels and jumps well so might be up to defying a big weight.

Bumper - Didtheyleaveuoutto 10/1

Most impressive bumper winner of the season. Would be clear favourite if he were trained by Mullins.

JLT - Saint Calvados 25/1 (EW NRNBG)

Two impressive wins at Newbury but he can't beat the front two in the Arkle. The JLT is up for grabs and he would surely find it far easier to try and dominate this field. If he stays has every chance.

Pertemps - Black Ivory 14/1 (EW NRNB)

Progressing nicely and value for more than the official verdict at Warwick. Hectic pace at Cheltenham should suit.

Ryanair - Waiting Patiently 10/1

Another progressive Jefferson horse. On the Kempton performance alone he could easily be favourite. Not at all worried by Un De Sceaux who beat a Grade 2 horse and a handicapper last year.

Stayers - The Worlds End 25/1 (EW) & Thomas Campbell 25/1 (EW NRNBG)

Big weekend for these two. They don't have to win (as the ground will almost certainly be totally different in March) but fingers crossed for some promise of better to come. The Worlds End is my preferred of the two. He hasn't got that much to find on Sam Spinner and the likely better ground should be a big help. Thomas Campbell ran a strange race at Ascot but did similar last year. He is 3/4 at Cheltenham.

Mares Novices - Marias Benefit 10/1

Hard not to be impressed with her demolition job. Clearly very useful but can she dominate a much bigger field on a stiffer track?

Triumph - Espoir D'Allen 14/1

I think he has done enough to be favourite for the Triumph. The race at Leopardstown is looking to be quite a stiff task and I wonder whether it might have been better to give him a rest prior to Cheltenham. He doesn't shape as if he needs any further experience.

Albert Bartlett - On The Blind Side 20/1

If he is on song this race would look his for the taking. Henderson did switch Bobs Worth at the last minute but it seems unlikely it will happen again.

Gold Cup - Presenting Percy 50/1

A bit of a flyer but I doubt you would get 12/1 if he were priced up for this.

Martin Pipe - Minds Eye 16/1 (EW NRNBG)

Gigginstown usually throw something decent at this and he looks as likely as any at this stage.

So quite happy, other than Real Steel and having to cover a couple of races. Fingers crossed most, if not all, get there.

Good luck.

Something of a train wreck over the last few weeks. Could have done without Espoir D'Allen but I did have concerns about one run too many. Been a case of trying to patch things up so have since added:-

Supreme - Paloma Blue 20/1 EW

Quite hopeful if he can get some better ground. Can see him travelling really well and then a case of whether he gets up the hill. Real Steel not good enough wherever he goes.

Arkle - Saint Calvados 7/1 EW NRNB

Don't like three in one race but there is a chance of a return on all of them. Hard to ignore after Warwick.

Ultima - Gold Present 14/1 EW

Sadly, doesn't look as if he will go. I don't think he is a National horse but would be the class in this race.

National Hunt Chase - No Comment 20/1 EW NRNB

Short of experience but could well benefit from a step up in trip. It seems as if they think Ms Parfois wants soft ground but I just think she wants a trip.

Close Brothers - Gwencily Berbas 33/1 EW NRNB & Kalondra 14/1 EW NRNB

I was hopeful Gwencily Berbas would do enough last time to get in but he didn't. Kalondra had a nice 2lb drop and I can see a similar sort of ride to Tully East.

JLT - Monalee 14/1

This race hasn't been good. I would take the two horses I have backed against anything that turns up but sadly it seems both will end up elsewhere. I understand the thinking with Saint Calvados but not so much Monalee. I can see him struggling to see out an RSA.

Pertemps - Delta Work 20/1 & 33/1 EW

The best of my handicappers and disappointed if he doesn't go very well. Black Ivory had a very nasty incident last time and I suspect he was another they were fightened to 'risk'.

Stayers - Sam Spinner 5/1

Just a case of when I backed this horse. I like the long break and I think he will be hard to beat. I have doubts about The Worlds End in terms of his jumping and getting home and Thomas Campbell probably won't run.

Brown Advisory - Tully East 12/1 EW

Luck in running and he has a decent chance. Again should be relatively fresh.

Mares Novice - Laurina 11/8 NRNB

Not my sort of price but I didn't think I had much choice. Hard to see Maria's Benefit turning her over unless she disappoints.

Ryanair

Another disaster area. Waiting Patiently clearly has every chance and would be running if trained just about anywhere else. Aside from my bet not great news for racing. Would like to take the 20/1 Cue Card but it appears they would rather get beaten again in a Gold Cup than have a good chance to go out in a blaze of glory.

Albert Bartlett - Santini 10/1

Having not even given the winner an entry this horse is probably the most solid option in a relatively weak race.

Gold Cup - Total Recall 25/1 EW

He has to find in the region of 14lbs but he is one of the few potential improvers in another weak renewal. A lot depends on Sizing John. He could win again but not many do and he will be off the back of a dreadful performance.

Foxhunters - Morning Assembly 16/1 EW NRNB

Still has to qualify but assuming that happens his previous Cheltenham form should give him a chance in a shocking renewal.

Martin Pipe - Springtown Lake 25/1 EW NRNB

One of the stable's few decent and consistent runners this season. Probably doesn't have to improve much to take a hand.

Grand Annual - Diego Du Charmil 20/1 EW NRNB

If he wasn't flattered by the Warwick run would have a fair chance. Seems to jump well and better ground should help.

[mayo]

The Storyteller @ 17.00 Ultima
Summerville Boy @ 13.00 Sup
Movewiththetimes @ 11.00 Close
Brain Power @ 11.00 Arkle
Squouateur @ 7.00 Kim
Beat That @ 26.00 Pertemps
Lucky 63, 63 bets * £0.25 E/W
Nearly £2m

[Liam301287]

Starting mine tomorrow night great weekend. Like xmas is almost here again.

[Scooby91]

My personal handicap picks. Nrnb.

Fred winter
Style de garde 20/1
Look my way 18/1
Act of valour 40/1 25/1


Close brothers nov handicap
Tycoon Prince 20/1

Coral cup
Duc des genievres 14/1

Ultima
The storyteller 16/1

Brown advisory
The storyteller 14/1

Martin pipe
Early doors 20/1

[charlie]

Starting mine tomorrow night great weekend. Like xmas is almost here again.

Yeh me too. The handicap homework starts now

[ComplyOrDie]

General question, aside from the handicaps are there many races that you haven't got involved in yet for one reason or another?

I currently have hardly any bets, and those I do have are minimal for the QMCC & the Ryanair, I think both have been up in the air most of the season that I've just not been bothered by them tbh!

Pretty much everything else I have covered I think, handicaps aside of course.

[ComplyOrDie]

Yeh me too. The handicap homework starts now

Weights are published on the 28th I believe

[kinloch brae]

General question, aside from the handicaps are there many races that you haven't got involved in yet for one reason or another?

I currently have hardly any bets, and those I do have are minimal for the QMCC & the Ryanair, I think both have been up in the air most of the season that I've just not been bothered by them tbh!

Pretty much everything else I have covered I think, handicaps aside of course.

It's pretty much the same every year with the Champion Chase unless you like short prices. Usually a small field and a small number who have winning chances. Difficult to find a 33/1 place chance. I don't think the Ryanair is going to take that much winning but for me the two most likely winners, Waiting Patiently and Cue Card are not going to go. Looked at Bachasson at a bigger price but he would surely only go if Un De Sceaux didn't. Having a bet isn't going to make the Cross Country a better race. Again unless you like short prices there is no real incentive to bet in the Mare's Hurdle.

[Kevloaf]

Had a bit of "non runner" money returned for a few from 365 today that aren't in the entries...

Smart of them, as it'll be going straight back on something else.