Cheltenham 2018 Ante post bets

[Kevloaf]

It may be tongue in cheek Kev, but I think you are right!

Our Duke, Buveur D'air and Cause of Causes are certainties in my eyes.

Not as tongue in cheek as a lot that I say ...

Those 3 in an each way trixie are just brilliant IMO

[Kevloaf]

I think the reason you don't like Our Duke as much jono is you didn't back him on the day and watch it live when he won the Irish Grand National?

I sometimes have a negative view of a horse when I miss it too

Joking aside, the Our Duke thing has been backed by a few on the podcasts and there was a comparison to Denman / Kauto with SJ and OD being in the same yard that I loved, although both would need to improve significantly to deserve actual comparisons but the 'paths' do look to have similarities (Kauto/SJ starting over shorter) Denman/OD doing fantastic weight-carrying displays...

No-one is forcing me to pick a side in the staying chaser divison and for some reason I want to anyway... I wanted Thistlecrack to be that horse and Many Clouds beat him. I also love Might Bite, but his race is at Kempton and he's been found in the market.... Our Duke at 12's is just too big.

------

Only just read that you've decided to back him - I agree with everything you'd said above that.

[BigChaang]

Kev, yourself and jono just talked me round to the Our duke camp, got to say i agree with most of those points.:

[Kevloaf]

Well are least you'll know who to blame if it all goes wrong.

I also like the fact they missed Cheltenham on purpose ... I think he'll improve this season because of the way he was campaigned last season and he'll not need to improve that much anyway!

[BigChaang]

Agree with that !!. ( the second paragraph i mean !)

[Kevloaf]

Lucky 31 placed

Buveur D'air CH
Altior CC
CoC Cross Country
Nichols Canyon Stayers
Our Duke Gold Cup

Pays over 30k

[Geordieboy83]

i have read all the comments and find it not to be impressed by Our Duke, all valued and valid opinions, I still have a feeling too for Josies Orders to come back fighting fit for the Cross Country, what's peoples thoughts?

[Kevloaf]

Josies deserves respect for sure. Would want to see a competitive run but would certainly command respect

[Geordieboy83]

I just think 10s could be a huge price for a horse that as you say has to be respected. But I agree could do with a run to see how horse is doing

[jono]

If Josies Orders comes back in the same form before his injury then he'd be a big player. He was clear first choice for Bolger at the start of last year despite Cantlows improvement. Very little was reported on his injury (does anyone know?) but he did say he'd be back the following season.

The Cross Country market changes very little outside of the 3-4 prep races (Cheltenham Nov/Dec and Punchestown Feb) so best advice is to wait and see if he gets entered and declared for the Open meeting at Cheltenham in November and if he does back before/straight after that race (which is likely what i'll do each way)

[Geordieboy83]

I haven't heard anything on the injury, but Bolger did say will be back next season. So fingers crossed all goes well

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'd much prefer to take 9/1 Cause of Causes than 10/1 Josie's Orders.

CoC, a three time festival winner and reigning x country champ, versus a horse who lost against a 13(?) year old the last time he ran at the festival and has been off the track for a season.

It's a no brainer to me.

[jono]

I'd much prefer to take 9/1 Cause of Causes than 10/1 Josie's Orders.

I'd be interested with JO as an each way alternative if he lined up come the Winter and was still 10/1 but yeah in terms of the value 100% agree

The other thing to consider with Cause of Causes is quite often you see high class horses come into the Cross Country sphere later on in their careers but make minor if any impact. See On His Own and First Lieutenant as 2 examples. It's often best to avoid these types of horses as despite their class and previous exploits, they are in decline and you're best sticking to a horse who although wouldn't have hit the same heights in graded/top races - are proven cross country specialists. CoC is different in that he has taken to the Cross Country races. Right now he just is a level above the field

[Kevloaf]

The worry would be (as I think ISta mentioned) they might set their sites a little higher and have a go at the Gold Cup? I can't see it myself because owners/jockey/trainer will all want another 'winner' but it has stopped me ever so slightly with a nagging doubt?

[Vanilla]

My summer treble:-

Buveur D'air 4/1 Champion Hurdle
Altior 5/4 Champion Chase
Cause Of Causes 9/1 Cross Country