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This is a race I really enjoy getting involved in. The standard is increasing year by year (even more so last years!) and it's a race that has a few angles that can really clear up the feel. This year's race also has a nice touch with it being run in honour of JT McNamara.
Back in September I posted a pretty lengthy post on the race and highlighted the importance of jockey bookings in the race as well as advising Champers on Ice at 33/1. I won't include it again in here but it goes into the detail of the jockey bookings and how they have fared in the last 5 years:
So the key for me in this race is...
JOCKEY BOOKING, JOCKEY BOOKING, JOCKEY BOOKING!!
i.e Derek O'Connor, Jamie Codd (Nina Carberry usually but out for the season) and then Patrick Mullins, Katie Walsh.
Last year I backed Nina's (Southfield Royale) and Codd's ride (Noble Endeavour) with this in mind and refused to back Minella Rocco on his form but O'Connor got the job done on him so this year even more so I want to try and cover at least Codd and O'Connors rides - ideally getting the rides right whilst the prices are big.
Another good trend or angle for the race particularly in the last 5-6 years is the OR of the horses. From the list above the horses range from 140 - 151 with Disko being the stand out highest rated so far. A lot of these horses will have another run and chance to increase this but it's worth noting.
In the last 6 renewals of this the top OR in the race have finished:
2016 - Vicente - Will Biddick (OR153) - 5th
2015 - Cause of Causes - Jamie Codd (OR147) - 1st
2014 - Shotgun Paddy - Derek O'Connor (OR151) - 2nd
2013 - Back in Focus - Patrick Mullins (OR150) - 1st
2012 - Teaforthree - JT McNamara (OR146) - 1st
2011 - Chicago Grey - Derek O'Connor (OR147) - 1st
Giving form figures of 512111. So it pays to focus on the highest rated horses in this race. Now obviously they'll likely be near the head of the betting and like shown above 4 out of the 6 above had one of the 'top jockeys' onboard. However lasts years race saw with (no offence meant) an unfancied jockey in M Legg ride Native River into second place. Native River had the 2nd best OR in the race at 149. More on this later...
My thoughts on some in the market now and who might be most likely to get the best jockey bookings:
Arpege Dalene (OR145) 16/1
Target all but assured by the trainer and the step up does look like it'll suit him. Will Biddick is Nichols pick in these races so that is a negative for me alongside more importantly the trainers record in the race: 0/17 in the race and that's included some decent chances in the race, in a sector he should be best in (staying chasers).
Martello Tower (OR143) 16/1
Winner of the 2015 Albert Bartlett (a VERY strong race). Has taken well to fences I'd worry he needs soft/heavy ground to be at his best, even though he has performed well with good in the description so far this season though. He's raced in some good novice chases beating a potential rival in A Genie in Abottle and running well against Anibale Fly and Our Duke. Purely based on his race against A Genie in Abottle though - you'd probably favour AGIAB over 4miles such was the way AGIAB finished the race. Also it's worth noting IF Willie Mullins didn't have a runner in this race (more likely he does) then Patrick Mullins could be a likely rider for this with the horse being trained by Mags Mullins.
Haymount (OR144) 16/1
Bleu Et Rouge (-) 25/1
Haymount like it could be the ride of Patrick Mullins if they go down this route. Connections have said good ground should suit the horse but his form so far this season is nothing to be sniffed at. His chasing debut was the beating of Coney Island who later went onto win the Drinmore then came second to Our Duke in a strong 3m chase over Christmas. He then came second to the RSA fav Bellshill over Christmas, beating Diamond King. Really strong form and Patrick rode him that last day too which could be a good sign. I've not heard connections say a marathon trip will suit but if he goes here he's of definite interest with Patrick onboard.
Mullins may run Bleu et Rouge instead which could be Mullins ride. Won a good novice chase over 19F recently and was the winner of the Deloitte last season though he didn't quite fire at the Spring festivals last year and I think he'll be best over shorted trips than this.
Alpha des Obeaux (OR147) 16/1
Cannot see him going here. Mouse Morris recently came out and said the horse would be entered in the JLT and "his race" the RSA. Having bled last time the 4 mile trip seems even more likely.
American (OR148) 16/1
Jumped superbly beating Champers on Ice at Warwick at the weekend. He'd have to be of interest off that along with his 148 rating. Likely he won't run now until the festival so may not get anymore clues on target until closer to March. He's very fragile though so I definitely wouldn't have an antepost bet on him and I think Harry Fry will go down the RSA route. With his fragility if the horse is well i'm sure he'll want to take his chance while he can in the bigger race having got off the mark at the festival last year with UKWIMH.
Champers on Ice (OR143) 16/1
My fancy back in September and still my main one at the moment. My post linked above goes on to touch on Pipe's good record in the race, the likelyhood of a top jockey onboard and how he should be perfectly suited to the race. Now there was a worry he may have gone down the RSA but I think the defeat by American at Warwick has pushed the thinking towards the 4 miler. There have been a few mentions of the Ultima Handicap Chase, won by the same connections Un Temps Por Tout last year. He's currently rated 143 and UTPT was rated 148 so connections might be tempted but I just think he really needs further than 3 miles with his jumping probably put under too much pressure. The owners of the horse had this to say on twitter after the race this weekend:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/oneman73">@oneman73</a> loads of options but the 4 miler would suit him</p>— Harry Drew (@thechop333) <a href="https://twitter.com/thechop333/status/821385751027974149">January 17, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/IanMckitterick">@IanMckitterick</a> I am but loads to looks forward to! 4 miler is my vote as an initial reaction... American looks a smart horse; fair play!</p>— Harry Drew (@thechop333) <a href="https://twitter.com/thechop333/status/820271753851179008">January 14, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/matt_w1982">@matt_w1982</a> yep, weren't beating the winner today through I feel.... 4 miler looks a likely race now!</p>— Harry Drew (@thechop333) <a href="https://twitter.com/thechop333/status/820270252697223168">January 14, 2017</a></blockquote>
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So i'm still confident this will be the race for him. If Jamie Codd isn't lined up for a Gordon Elliott horse I think he's a certainty in taking up the mount on COI having a good relationship with Pipe and having ridden COI at the Punchestown festival. Derek O'Connor tends not to have a consistent relationship with a specific trainer in this race so has a chance if being approached. Katie Walsh has also ridden for Pipe in the past so could take the ride also. So 2/4 'top jockeys' have past relationships and form with Pipe and this race with him.
To me the marathon 4 mile trip will suit him to the ground and I also think it will help his jumping. Even over hurdles he was known to be a bit sketchy but the longer distance should suit and allow him more time. He's got festival form placing behind UNWIMH in the Albert Bartlett, won at the course (New Years Day '16) and ran with credit behind much speedier types in Yanworth and Shantou Village over 2m4 trips. There should also be no worry about how the ground plays out on the day with him showing form at the track from Heavy > Good.
COI recent run may also turn out to be not that bad. Ben Aitken posted the following today in the form of Pipes runners at the moment:
VERY keen on his chances this far out.
Mall Dini (-) 14/1
Beaten three times over fences this season (by AGIAB and Haymount - I get the impression the owners are trying to target another handicap at the festival this year for him.
Jetstream Jack (OR140) 14/1
Free Expression (OR142) 14/1
Noble Endeavour (OR145) 14/1
Fagan (-) 25/1
Firstly Noble Endeavour won't go - he shouldn't be in the betting having won a race last year (before running in this last year). Now onto the trainer Gordon Elliott has a good record in this race having Chicago Grey and Cause of Causes. Noble Endeavour was also running a strong race last year before falling 2 out. Elliott has had both Codd and O'Connor on those 3 rides and looks to have built a pretty strong relationship with Codd in particular in the last few years (he's been his choice on races like the cross country with Bless the Wings). It would be no suprise to see the same combination join up on one of these. Fagan took my interest back in September, especially having finished second (in front of Champers on Ice) in last years Albert Bartlett but he's had a few setbacks at the start of the season and faded tamely on his debut this season. Now Elliott is known to have his horses run well below form throughout the season before being peaked for the Spring races (Cause of Causes!) so it would be no surprise to see him improve a bundle in the Spring.
Jetstream Jack beat 2 of the Gigginstown potential runners in Disko and Nambour on his second chase start this season. He contested the same 3m race won by Our Duke as a few overs but finished well back in 7th. Like any of Elliotts hopes in this race though I think they'll peak at the festival and he could be his most likely runner in this.
The horse I actually quite like out of the three is Free Expression. He's been running in good company throughout his career against the likes of Outlander and No More Heroes and has performed with merit. I think he's crying out for a step up to at least 3 miles, whether 4 miles will suit i'm unsure but I think he's got a good race in him for Elliott at some point in his career. it;s also worth noting that McManus has a good record in this race with 6 winners including the last 2 years. Maybe he'll get his checkbook out again and persuade a top jockey to get onboard
Any of those 3 would interest me if Codd or another top jockey gets the ride.
Singlefarmpayment (OR142) 14/1
Beware the Bear (OR145) 14/1
Both have form tying in with eachother and Arpege Dalene. SFP would be the main interest of the 2 - he has a course win over 25F and 24F with a 100% record at the track. He was also idling up the run in lto and I think the step up to this trip could bring further improvement. His next race could be the Novices Chase at Wetherby on Feb 4th. Last years race included RSA winner Blaklion and Native River and Definitely Red who both went onto run in this race. Based on trainer quotes though it sounds like they are leaning towards the RSA for him. This is the kind of horse I could see Derek O'Connor getting onboard and if so he'd be a big contender for me.
A Genie in Abottle (-) 16/1
Milsean (-) 16/1
Disko (OR151) 14/1
Nambour (OR140) 25/1
Balko des Flos (-) 25/1
Tiger Roll (OR145) 25/1
Gigginstown always have a wealth of potential runners in the race around this time of year. However only expect 2 max if past runners are anything to go by (2016, 2014, 2013, 2012 all had 1 runner. 2 runners in 2015, 0 in 2011) They are also notorious for making late switches betwen this race and the RSA. With that in mind I couldn't have an antepost bet on the race at this stage for any but all would take interest. Going on the OR trend it's worth pointing out Disko is clear highest with 151. Katie Walsh rode Measureofmydreams in this race last year and if she was to line up on the horse come March i'd be taking notice.
So so far out I have the following backed:
Champers on Ice - possible Codd or Walsh
And of interest are:
Elliotts runner - likely Codd
Gigginstown runner - possible Walsh
Haymount - likely Mullins
Singlefarmpayment
O'Connor had ridden for the following trainers in the last 4 years:
O'Neill, Hourigan, Lavelle, Robson
So it'll be much tougher to work out his ride so far out and even then he may switch (like he did from Native River > Minella Rocco!)
So thoughts on the race? Any guessing or thoughts on who the likes of O'Connor, Codd, Mullins and Walsh will ride?
I know quite a few on the forum are as keen on Champers on Ice and have backed
Back in September I posted a pretty lengthy post on the race and highlighted the importance of jockey bookings in the race as well as advising Champers on Ice at 33/1. I won't include it again in here but it goes into the detail of the jockey bookings and how they have fared in the last 5 years:
So the key for me in this race is...
JOCKEY BOOKING, JOCKEY BOOKING, JOCKEY BOOKING!!
i.e Derek O'Connor, Jamie Codd (Nina Carberry usually but out for the season) and then Patrick Mullins, Katie Walsh.
Last year I backed Nina's (Southfield Royale) and Codd's ride (Noble Endeavour) with this in mind and refused to back Minella Rocco on his form but O'Connor got the job done on him so this year even more so I want to try and cover at least Codd and O'Connors rides - ideally getting the rides right whilst the prices are big.
Another good trend or angle for the race particularly in the last 5-6 years is the OR of the horses. From the list above the horses range from 140 - 151 with Disko being the stand out highest rated so far. A lot of these horses will have another run and chance to increase this but it's worth noting.
In the last 6 renewals of this the top OR in the race have finished:
2016 - Vicente - Will Biddick (OR153) - 5th
2015 - Cause of Causes - Jamie Codd (OR147) - 1st
2014 - Shotgun Paddy - Derek O'Connor (OR151) - 2nd
2013 - Back in Focus - Patrick Mullins (OR150) - 1st
2012 - Teaforthree - JT McNamara (OR146) - 1st
2011 - Chicago Grey - Derek O'Connor (OR147) - 1st
Giving form figures of 512111. So it pays to focus on the highest rated horses in this race. Now obviously they'll likely be near the head of the betting and like shown above 4 out of the 6 above had one of the 'top jockeys' onboard. However lasts years race saw with (no offence meant) an unfancied jockey in M Legg ride Native River into second place. Native River had the 2nd best OR in the race at 149. More on this later...
My thoughts on some in the market now and who might be most likely to get the best jockey bookings:
Arpege Dalene (OR145) 16/1
Target all but assured by the trainer and the step up does look like it'll suit him. Will Biddick is Nichols pick in these races so that is a negative for me alongside more importantly the trainers record in the race: 0/17 in the race and that's included some decent chances in the race, in a sector he should be best in (staying chasers).
Martello Tower (OR143) 16/1
Winner of the 2015 Albert Bartlett (a VERY strong race). Has taken well to fences I'd worry he needs soft/heavy ground to be at his best, even though he has performed well with good in the description so far this season though. He's raced in some good novice chases beating a potential rival in A Genie in Abottle and running well against Anibale Fly and Our Duke. Purely based on his race against A Genie in Abottle though - you'd probably favour AGIAB over 4miles such was the way AGIAB finished the race. Also it's worth noting IF Willie Mullins didn't have a runner in this race (more likely he does) then Patrick Mullins could be a likely rider for this with the horse being trained by Mags Mullins.
Haymount (OR144) 16/1
Bleu Et Rouge (-) 25/1
Haymount like it could be the ride of Patrick Mullins if they go down this route. Connections have said good ground should suit the horse but his form so far this season is nothing to be sniffed at. His chasing debut was the beating of Coney Island who later went onto win the Drinmore then came second to Our Duke in a strong 3m chase over Christmas. He then came second to the RSA fav Bellshill over Christmas, beating Diamond King. Really strong form and Patrick rode him that last day too which could be a good sign. I've not heard connections say a marathon trip will suit but if he goes here he's of definite interest with Patrick onboard.
Mullins may run Bleu et Rouge instead which could be Mullins ride. Won a good novice chase over 19F recently and was the winner of the Deloitte last season though he didn't quite fire at the Spring festivals last year and I think he'll be best over shorted trips than this.
Alpha des Obeaux (OR147) 16/1
Cannot see him going here. Mouse Morris recently came out and said the horse would be entered in the JLT and "his race" the RSA. Having bled last time the 4 mile trip seems even more likely.
American (OR148) 16/1
Jumped superbly beating Champers on Ice at Warwick at the weekend. He'd have to be of interest off that along with his 148 rating. Likely he won't run now until the festival so may not get anymore clues on target until closer to March. He's very fragile though so I definitely wouldn't have an antepost bet on him and I think Harry Fry will go down the RSA route. With his fragility if the horse is well i'm sure he'll want to take his chance while he can in the bigger race having got off the mark at the festival last year with UKWIMH.
Champers on Ice (OR143) 16/1
My fancy back in September and still my main one at the moment. My post linked above goes on to touch on Pipe's good record in the race, the likelyhood of a top jockey onboard and how he should be perfectly suited to the race. Now there was a worry he may have gone down the RSA but I think the defeat by American at Warwick has pushed the thinking towards the 4 miler. There have been a few mentions of the Ultima Handicap Chase, won by the same connections Un Temps Por Tout last year. He's currently rated 143 and UTPT was rated 148 so connections might be tempted but I just think he really needs further than 3 miles with his jumping probably put under too much pressure. The owners of the horse had this to say on twitter after the race this weekend:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/oneman73">@oneman73</a> loads of options but the 4 miler would suit him</p>— Harry Drew (@thechop333) <a href="https://twitter.com/thechop333/status/821385751027974149">January 17, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/IanMckitterick">@IanMckitterick</a> I am but loads to looks forward to! 4 miler is my vote as an initial reaction... American looks a smart horse; fair play!</p>— Harry Drew (@thechop333) <a href="https://twitter.com/thechop333/status/820271753851179008">January 14, 2017</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/matt_w1982">@matt_w1982</a> yep, weren't beating the winner today through I feel.... 4 miler looks a likely race now!</p>— Harry Drew (@thechop333) <a href="https://twitter.com/thechop333/status/820270252697223168">January 14, 2017</a></blockquote>
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So i'm still confident this will be the race for him. If Jamie Codd isn't lined up for a Gordon Elliott horse I think he's a certainty in taking up the mount on COI having a good relationship with Pipe and having ridden COI at the Punchestown festival. Derek O'Connor tends not to have a consistent relationship with a specific trainer in this race so has a chance if being approached. Katie Walsh has also ridden for Pipe in the past so could take the ride also. So 2/4 'top jockeys' have past relationships and form with Pipe and this race with him.
To me the marathon 4 mile trip will suit him to the ground and I also think it will help his jumping. Even over hurdles he was known to be a bit sketchy but the longer distance should suit and allow him more time. He's got festival form placing behind UNWIMH in the Albert Bartlett, won at the course (New Years Day '16) and ran with credit behind much speedier types in Yanworth and Shantou Village over 2m4 trips. There should also be no worry about how the ground plays out on the day with him showing form at the track from Heavy > Good.
COI recent run may also turn out to be not that bad. Ben Aitken posted the following today in the form of Pipes runners at the moment:
36 runners since the turn of the year returning the following figures…
3/36 | 8% S/R | -£24.55 BFLSP – Win & Place 12/36 | 33% S/R
46% below expectation
He had one winner on New Years Day then fired in two short-priced winners yesterday (Tuesday 17th). In-between that there were 28 straight losers. Not good.
The ‘poor run’ is noteworthy as he’s usually pulling in plenty winners in January and generally has his string operating at around the 15%+ strike-rate, often higher.
3/36 | 8% S/R | -£24.55 BFLSP – Win & Place 12/36 | 33% S/R
46% below expectation
He had one winner on New Years Day then fired in two short-priced winners yesterday (Tuesday 17th). In-between that there were 28 straight losers. Not good.
The ‘poor run’ is noteworthy as he’s usually pulling in plenty winners in January and generally has his string operating at around the 15%+ strike-rate, often higher.
Mall Dini (-) 14/1
Beaten three times over fences this season (by AGIAB and Haymount - I get the impression the owners are trying to target another handicap at the festival this year for him.
Jetstream Jack (OR140) 14/1
Free Expression (OR142) 14/1
Noble Endeavour (OR145) 14/1
Fagan (-) 25/1
Firstly Noble Endeavour won't go - he shouldn't be in the betting having won a race last year (before running in this last year). Now onto the trainer Gordon Elliott has a good record in this race having Chicago Grey and Cause of Causes. Noble Endeavour was also running a strong race last year before falling 2 out. Elliott has had both Codd and O'Connor on those 3 rides and looks to have built a pretty strong relationship with Codd in particular in the last few years (he's been his choice on races like the cross country with Bless the Wings). It would be no suprise to see the same combination join up on one of these. Fagan took my interest back in September, especially having finished second (in front of Champers on Ice) in last years Albert Bartlett but he's had a few setbacks at the start of the season and faded tamely on his debut this season. Now Elliott is known to have his horses run well below form throughout the season before being peaked for the Spring races (Cause of Causes!) so it would be no surprise to see him improve a bundle in the Spring.
Jetstream Jack beat 2 of the Gigginstown potential runners in Disko and Nambour on his second chase start this season. He contested the same 3m race won by Our Duke as a few overs but finished well back in 7th. Like any of Elliotts hopes in this race though I think they'll peak at the festival and he could be his most likely runner in this.
The horse I actually quite like out of the three is Free Expression. He's been running in good company throughout his career against the likes of Outlander and No More Heroes and has performed with merit. I think he's crying out for a step up to at least 3 miles, whether 4 miles will suit i'm unsure but I think he's got a good race in him for Elliott at some point in his career. it;s also worth noting that McManus has a good record in this race with 6 winners including the last 2 years. Maybe he'll get his checkbook out again and persuade a top jockey to get onboard
Any of those 3 would interest me if Codd or another top jockey gets the ride.
Singlefarmpayment (OR142) 14/1
Beware the Bear (OR145) 14/1
Both have form tying in with eachother and Arpege Dalene. SFP would be the main interest of the 2 - he has a course win over 25F and 24F with a 100% record at the track. He was also idling up the run in lto and I think the step up to this trip could bring further improvement. His next race could be the Novices Chase at Wetherby on Feb 4th. Last years race included RSA winner Blaklion and Native River and Definitely Red who both went onto run in this race. Based on trainer quotes though it sounds like they are leaning towards the RSA for him. This is the kind of horse I could see Derek O'Connor getting onboard and if so he'd be a big contender for me.
A Genie in Abottle (-) 16/1
Milsean (-) 16/1
Disko (OR151) 14/1
Nambour (OR140) 25/1
Balko des Flos (-) 25/1
Tiger Roll (OR145) 25/1
Gigginstown always have a wealth of potential runners in the race around this time of year. However only expect 2 max if past runners are anything to go by (2016, 2014, 2013, 2012 all had 1 runner. 2 runners in 2015, 0 in 2011) They are also notorious for making late switches betwen this race and the RSA. With that in mind I couldn't have an antepost bet on the race at this stage for any but all would take interest. Going on the OR trend it's worth pointing out Disko is clear highest with 151. Katie Walsh rode Measureofmydreams in this race last year and if she was to line up on the horse come March i'd be taking notice.
So so far out I have the following backed:
Champers on Ice - possible Codd or Walsh
And of interest are:
Elliotts runner - likely Codd
Gigginstown runner - possible Walsh
Haymount - likely Mullins
Singlefarmpayment
O'Connor had ridden for the following trainers in the last 4 years:
O'Neill, Hourigan, Lavelle, Robson
So it'll be much tougher to work out his ride so far out and even then he may switch (like he did from Native River > Minella Rocco!)
So thoughts on the race? Any guessing or thoughts on who the likes of O'Connor, Codd, Mullins and Walsh will ride?
I know quite a few on the forum are as keen on Champers on Ice and have backed
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