Mug Bets and Smug Bets...

[Leman14]

As Jono mentions, what makes a smug bet 8 weeks out, is very different to what makes a smug bet once racing is finished.
In addition to all our top 2/3 bets, we will all have a number of 16/1, 20/1, 25/1 + bets that may not look overly smug at the moment, BUT if they turn up in the right race... anything can happen!

Whilst I will gladly take any ante post win, it's those longer shot, riskier, left-field winners that give you the bigger buzz!

[Kevloaf]

As Jono mentions, what makes a smug bet 8 weeks out, is very different to what makes a smug bet once racing is finished.
In addition to all our top 2/3 bets, we will all have a number of 16/1, 20/1, 25/1 + bets that may not look overly smug at the moment, BUT if they turn up in the right race... anything can happen!

Whilst I will gladly take any ante post win, it's those longer shot, riskier, left-field winners that give you the bigger buzz!

33/1 on Rawnaq

[Istabraq]

Thought I'd re-visit this thread as whilst I'm the proud owner of vouchers such as:

Altior 5/1
On The Fringe 6/1
Peregrine Run 33/1
Western Ryder 25/1

I am also the owner of:

Death Duty 2/1 placed Jan
UKWIMH 13/8 placed Jan
Yanworth 7/2 placed Jan
Gods Own 20/1 placed Dec
Might Bite 4/1 place Feb
Cilaos Emery 10/1 placed Jan
Cantlow 11/4 place Jan

I additionally have the likes of:

Mall Dini
Fletchers Flyer
Josies Orders

All gone (not going or wrong race)

So the question has to be, is AP really worth it ?
I know the answer depends on whether your vouchers fall in bracket 1, 2 or 3 but the level of uncertainty is huge, does it really pay or do AP bets merely increase our interest levels and get the juices flowing ?

[Leman14]

Thought I'd re-visit this thread as whilst I'm the proud owner of vouchers such as:

Altior 5/1
On The Fringe 6/1
Peregrine Run 33/1
Western Ryder 25/1

I am also the owner of:

Death Duty 2/1 placed Jan
UKWIMH 13/8 placed Jan
Yanworth 7/2 placed Jan
Gods Own 20/1 placed Dec
Might Bite 4/1 place Feb
Cilaos Emery 10/1 placed Jan
Cantlow 11/4 place Jan

I additionally have the likes of:

Mall Dini
Fletchers Flyer
Josies Orders

All gone (not going or wrong race)

So the question has to be, is AP really worth it ?
I know the answer depends on whether your vouchers fall in bracket 1, 2 or 3 but the level of uncertainty is huge, does it really pay or do AP bets merely increase our interest levels and get the juices flowing ?

Depends if they come in or not!!

I was looking this morning and have:
Moon Racer (Supreme) @ 16/1 (and CH @ 20/1)
Champers On Ice (4 Miler) @ 25/1
Carter McKay @ 25/1
Yanworth @ 16/1
Defi @ 14/1
Cantlow @ 10/1
Wholestone @ 16/1
Edwulf @ 16/1
Western Ryder, Peregrine Run etc...

Like most of you, I will be doing my own analysis on overall Profit/loss, but also work out the p/l on singles, multiples, system bets and also the time of year that they were placed.

Will (hopefully) make interesting reading.

When you hold some juicy prices for one of the favs, it does add some spice to the best week of the year!

[kinloch brae]

I think I need four good ones:-

(1) Empire Of Dirt 40/1 Ryanair - Despite all the total nonsense to the contrary he is in the right race and I expect him to destroy Un De Sceaux. If you are looking for a 5/1 shot now there isn't anything better.
(2) Royal Vacation 33/1 RSA
(3) Peregrine Run 33/1 Coral
(4) Death Duty 12/1 Albert Bartlett

Only one I feel was a bad mistake:-

Clan Des Obeaux 12/1 JLT

You can't knock yourself for horses who are injured or Master Blueyes who has shown himself to be 'too good' for the Fred Winter.

[Istabraq]

Of course very happy with these.........

The Ante Post E/W Yankee:

Might Bite 12/1
Gods Own 20/1
Ballyoptic 16/1
Djakadam 14/1

The Ante Post Win Yankee:

Death Duty 11/4
On The Fringe 7/2
Cantlow 4/1
UKWIMH 9/4

[ryanh97]

My mug bet is a bet have't placed. That bet is the win yankee ^. I never got round to placing it and the prices have shattered now, I think that's a full house.

[Leman14]

Of course very happy with these.........

The Ante Post E/W Yankee:

Might Bite 12/1
Gods Own 20/1
Ballyoptic 16/1
Djakadam 14/1

The Ante Post Win Yankee:

Death Duty 11/4
On The Fringe 7/2
Cantlow 4/1
UKWIMH 9/4

I had forgotten how good the prices are (especially on the EW Yankee!)
All the prices have pretty much halved for the WIN Yankee!!!

[Kevloaf]

I had forgotten how good the prices are (especially on the EW Yankee!)
All the prices have pretty much halved for the WIN Yankee!!!

A minor miracle that *all 8* are still standing at this stage!

[jono]

So the question has to be, is AP really worth it ?
I know the answer depends on whether your vouchers fall in bracket 1, 2 or 3 but the level of uncertainty is huge, does it really pay or do AP bets merely increase our interest levels and get the juices flowing ?

You're about 10 days too early to get a true answer on this - come back to us on March 18th

I think the second point is a very important aspect for myself personally. I'm never in a case where by i'm relying and NEED my antepost bets to come in otherwise it's doom and gloom. I'm probably slightly more cautious than others on here looking at the size of most peoples antepost books(jealous!) when it comes to my antepost betting, mainly in part to having to pay for both a wedding and a house to renovate for the last 2 years so it's always been little bits here and there and not as much as i'd have ideally liked.

I'll be gutted if every single one of my bets fall flat but by the time the festival rolls around I've got a seperate fund to cover the week and antepost then acts as a bonus when any (hopefully) come in. If they don't (and as long as I haven't blown all my money on bets on the day ) I can still enjoy the week.

Every August i'm itching for the National Hunt season to get into gear and am already looking towards the festival, hey i'm even looking in April time It's something I massively enjoy (clearly like most on here) and as long as i'm not losing every antepost bet year on year - the enjoyment in the 5-6 months leading up to the festival is worth the losers. If you told me now antepost betting was to stop after this years festival in all honesty - i'm not sure what i'd be doing between September > March

I've been in profit each season with antepost betting but i've never gone back and compared the bets to what the profit/loss would have been if I had just of bet on the day but i'm going to add this in after this years festival and see what the outcome is. See whether without losing bets on injuries/switched targets, that would have outweighed the shorter prices come the day as I'd like to see the difference

[jono]

A minor miracle that *all 8* are still standing at this stage!

Shhhh don't jinx them!

[Istabraq]

Jono - for me the deciding factor isn't the level of profit, it's how many of your horses make the races you back them in and at what price they are come the day...

[Kevloaf]

For me this year, it isn't as black or white as saying "ante-post worked or didn't". Of course technically I'll have the exact figures to tell me, but that isn't the whole picture, as it affects what I would/could have backed if I hadn't placed a bet yet...for example....

if I hadn't placed an ante post bet... how would I have the potential to win on horses like Altior, Douvan and Yorkhill? Now just as a treble, I have that at 83/1, for 1 point. Placed the day Altior was declared as going chasing and having put up my reasoning on here for the JLT to be Yorkhills target (re: Min) I am personally really pleased with myself, even if it doesn't come off! If I hadn't had that bet, (and it should be noted I also had Min, Douvan, Yorkhill) then the odds are LESS than 4/1 now. I would have to stake 10 points on that treble and I don't think I'd want to do that... it would seem a huge outlay and unless I had been literally saving money in a pot, then the points will start coming out of that months pay and all of a sudden, 10 points on that becomes 5, because i want at least 4 points per race or whatever it would be...

Going to make for some interesting reading though

[ComplyOrDie]

My embarrassment at my early November mug bets, trying to second guess Mullins/Ricci, no more of that next season after 3 years of trying.

I'm sure I'm not the only one and some are due to injury so a bit unlucky to a degree, but more intelligence and discipline is needed next season.

[loveracing]

I would say its impossible for "us" to go through the build up to the fest, collaborate like the way we do, and then not have a bet, its like keep going to the pub to not drink.

Can you imagine not following the build up and only turn the first page when nrnb kicks in? To me thats way too late for studying, the fact is you will have a lot less knowledge and will probably end up losing more. So I think AP betting is good in a way, just make sure you set your limits until nrnb comes out.

On the day I will probably lose more this year because I haven't had the time to try to get to know the majority of the fields. Most of my bets this year are based on your guys quotes and tips.