How's the form from the 2016 festival?

[jono]

It's been quite clear now how well the form of the 4 miler at the 2016 festival has turned out and it got enhanced once again on Saturday when Vieux Lion Rouge won the Becher Chase at Aintree (he finished 6th that day). Tony Keenan also mentioned a horse the other day who I had backed in March who is worth keeping an eye out and who I had forgotten - Southfield Royale.

Also Ballyandy and Castello Sforza both lost when favourite over the last few days too adding more weight to the Champion Bumper being a poor renewal.

Thought i'd go through each race, see how the form has worked out and if there's any horses to keep an eye on as i'm always keen on previous festival form...

Supreme - updated 25th feb 2017

1st - Altior
2nd - Min
3rd - Buveur D'Air

13 winners (Altior, Min, Buveur D'Air, Tombstone, Charbel, M Miyagi, Supasundae, Petit Mouchoir, North Hill Harvey, William H Bonney, Bellshill)

Lots of winners in probably won of the best Supremes for a while (imo)

Arkle - updated 25th feb 2017

1st - Douvan
2nd - Sizing John
3rd - Fox Norton

5 winners (Douvan, Fox Norton, Sizing John, Aso, Vaniteux)

Before Fox Norton improved leaps and bounds this year it looked like Douvan may be the only subsequent winner for a while with all the other runners disappointing since. A almost certain likely winner but he won a weak renewal and it doesn't help him.

Ultima Handicap Chase

1st - Un Temps Por Tout
2nd - Holywell
3rd - The Young Master

6 winners (UTPT, The Young Master, Kruzhlinin, Double Ross, Ballykan, O Maonlai)

Champion Hurdle - updated 25th feb 2017

1st - Annie Power
2nd - MTOY's
3rd - Nichols Canyon

6 winners (Annie, NC, Top Notch, Identity Thief, Hargam)

Mares Hurdle - updated 25th feb 2017

1st - VVM
2nd - Rock on the Moor
3rd - Legacy Gold

5 winners (VVM, Pass the Time, Desert Queen, Stephanie Francis, Rons Dream)

Usually is a weak race so never expecting much to come out from this race.

National Hunt Chase - updated 25th feb 2017

1st - Minella Rocco
2nd - Native River
3rd - Measureofmydreams

11 winners (Native River, Vicente, VLR, Viva Steve, Defintely Red, Johnny Og, Noble Endeavour, Pleasant Company, Vintage Vinnie, Shantou Flyer, Waldorf Salad

A stack of winners from this race and more importantly including high profile wins in the Hennessy, Becher Chase, Scottish National, Welsh National, Denman Chase, Paddy Power Chase

Novice Chase

1st - Ballyalton
2nd - Bouvreuill
3rd - Double Shuffle

6 winners (Twelve Roses, Thomas Brown, Amore Alato, McKinley, Javert, Kaygary)

A race that often is a good guide for the following season Paddy Power Chase in November. Altough producing the 6 winners it hasn't been that greatwith none of the top 3 winning since. Double Shuffle has been fancied strongly in 3 races since and disappointed.

So from day one the obvious horse to watch out for is Buveur D'air going chasing but also i'm keen to look out for

Noble Endeavour
Southfield Royale
Tombstone


Remaining days to follow...

[Faugheen_Machine]

Good work Jono!

[Istabraq]

Yeah good thread.
I wouldn't read into the handicaps unless you think they were won by progressive horses who can move onto pattern races (e.g Rooster Booster) but the championship and novice races are always fascinating to look back on...

[Kevloaf]

Any thoughts about WHY the NH Chase was better this year than the RSA? Is that a trend you expect to continue or a 'one off'.

The RSA is a much more prestigous and valuable race, and has produced Gold Cup winners... I think horses that end up in the 4 miler aren't good enough to win an RSA OR are particularly suited to the test (maybe with a GN in mind?)

A bit like the bumper looking weak this year so far, and the same with the RSA... I'd be surprised if that trend continued over the next 2-3 years?

[Istabraq]

That used to be the case Kevloaf but the 4 miler is changing, being an amateur event it will always be recognised less than an event the pros can compete but there is a growing emphasis on stamina for most big races (my view is that as fences are made easier they can go a quicker pace and take chances at obstacles where previously they would have been cautious) and because of that stamina requirement the 4m horses can become runners in future gold cups where previously those horses were probably National types.
The race has also been upgraded so will continue to attract better quality horses.

The RSA is suffering from the introduction of the JLT, the brutal 3m event can now be avoided by a slightly easier engagement, the last 2 years has seen just 8 go to post...

[Kevloaf]

I know it is improving year on year but and if the amount of winners coming from the 4 miler season-on-season increasing would be interesting... however I'd still think that a horse who wasn't good enough to win the RSA would be in the 4 miler (with the odd exception, like if it was clear the horse only had one pace), whereas a horse wanting to avoid a gruelling race going in the JLT makes sense, "avoiding" the RSA for the 4 miler doesn't, to me?

[jono]

Day 2

Neptune - updated 25th feb 2017

1st - Yorkhill
2nd - Yanworth
3rd - Its'afreebee

8 winners (Yorkhill, Yanworth, Its'afreebee, Welsh Shadow, Vigil, A Toi Phil, OO Seven, Yala Enki)

8 of the 11 runners

RSA - updated 25th feb 2017

1st - Blacklion
2nd - No More Heroes
3rd - More of That

3 winners (Seeyouatmigdnight, Le Mercurey, Shaneshill)


Coral Cup

1st - Diamond King
2nd - Long House Hall
3rd - Ubak

12 winners (Diamond King, Long House Hall, Ubak, Waxies Dargle, The Romford Pele, Avant Tout, Baron Alco, Commissioned, Theinval, Politolgue, Rock the Kasbah, Days of Heaven)

Champion Chase - updated 25th feb 2017

1st - Sprinter Sacre
2nd - Un de Sceaux
3rd - Special Tiara

6 winners (Sprinter, UDS, Gods Own, Sire de Grugy, Speecial Tiara, Just Cameron)

Cross Country

1st - Any Currency
2nd - Josies Orders
3rd - Bless the Wings

5 winners (Any Currency, Quant.., Third Intention, Valadom, Cantlow)

Fred Winter

1st - Diego Du Charmil
2nd - Romain De Senam
3rd - Coo Star Sivola

4 winners (Diego Du Charmil, Missy Tata, Messire Des Obeaux, Duke Street)

Champion Bumper - updated 25th feb 2017

1st - Ballyandy
2nd - Battleford
3rd - Bacardys

11 winners (Ballandy, Battleford, Bacardys, Augusta Kate, High Bridge, Rather Be, Avenir D'Une Vie, Gerodie des Champs, Ballymalin, Spirit of Kayf, Turcagua)

Bacardys is the only horse from the top 6 who has won since but that was in a very weak looking Aintree bumper (2 winners from that race) and though he was travelling well lto it's hard to say he would have won. That is from 11 runs, where in 10 of those runs the horse has been either fav or second fav. Westend Story did finish 5th and is yet to run. He's likely to run either at Warwick (08/12/16) or Doncaster (09/12/16) this week and it'll be very interesting to see if he can put on a good show having shown a lot of promise and being slightly unlucky in March. Augusta Kate and Geordie des Champs have done best to boost the form. Much like the Triumph last year the bumper horses seemed to flip flop throughout the 3 festival bumpers with where they finished (Ballyandy, Bacardys, Battleford) which usually suggests it's not the greatest year.

[jono]

Day 3

JLT - updated 25th feb 2017

1st - Black Hercules
2nd - Bristol de Mai
3rd - L'Ami Serge

6 winners (Bristol de Mai, Three Musketeers, As de Mee, Garde L'Victoire, Zabana, Outlander)

Pertemps

1st - Mall Dini
2nd - Arpege D'Alene
3rd - If in Doubt

6 winners

Ryanair - updated 25th feb 2017

1st - Vautour
2nd - Valseur Lido
3rd - Road to Riches

6 winners (Valseur Lido, Taquin de Seuil, Josses Hill, Oscar Rock, Smashing, Champagne West)

World Hurdle - updated 25th feb 2017

1st - Thistlecrack
2nd - Alpha des Obeaux
3rd - Special Tiara

7 winners (Thistlecrack, Alpha des Obeaux, Aux Ptits Soins, Martello Tower, L Colonel, Saphir du Rheu, Whisper)

Plate

1st - Empire of Dirt
2nd - Tango du Juilley
3rd - Kings Palace

4 winners (Empire of Dirt, Ballycasey, Astracad, Art Mauresque)

Mares Novice

1st - Limini
2nd - Dusky Legend
3rd - Bloody Mary

3 winners (Dusky Legend, Water Sprite, Actinpieces)

Kim Muir

1st - Causes of Causes
2nd - A Good Skin
3rd - Silvergrove

2 winners (Perfect Gentlemen, Carpard King)

[jono]

Day 4

Triumph - updated 25th feb 2017

1st - Ivanovich Gorbatov
2nd - Apples Jade
3rd - Footpad

9 winners (Apples Jade, Lets Dance, Leoncavallo, Clan des Obeaux, Tommy Silver, Connetable, Frodon, Sceau Royal, Zubayr, Who Dares Wins)

County

1st - Superb Story
2nd - Fethard Player
3rd - Sternrubin

5 winners (Sternrubin, Starchitect, Ivan Grozny, Some Plan, Zamdy Man)

Albert Bartlett - updated 25th feb 2017

1st - Unowhatimeanharry
2nd - Fagan
3rd - Champers on Ice

8 winners (Unowhatimeanharry, West Approach, Definite Outcome, Shantou Village, Up for Review, Champers on Ice, Balko des Flos, Bleu et Rouge)

Gold Cup - updated 25th feb 2017

1st - Don Cossack
2nd - Djakadam
3rd - Don Poli

4 winners (Cue Card, Carlingford Lough, Irish Cavelier, Djakadam)

Foxhunter

1st - On The Fringe
2nd - Marito
3rd - Paint the Clouds

-

Martin Pipe

1st - Ibis du rheu
2nd - Flying Angel
3rd - Sky Khan

9 winners (Flying Angel, Tully East, Whiteout, Jetsream Jack, Zulu Oscar, Matorico, Goodwood Mirage, Laurium, Roadie Joe)

Grand Annual

1st - Solar Impulse
2nd - Dandridge
3rd - Rock the World

8 winners (Savello, Workbench, Eastlake, Ravens Tower, Next Sensation, Germany Calling, Bright New Dawn, Croco Bay)

[Kevloaf]

You can add unowhatimeanharry as a winner from the AB?

Be really interesting to look at this thread over the years to come as well as more immediately. Good work jono!

[jono]

I know it is improving year on year but and if the amount of winners coming from the 4 miler season-on-season increasing would be interesting... however I'd still think that a horse who wasn't good enough to win the RSA would be in the 4 miler (with the odd exception, like if it was clear the horse only had one pace), whereas a horse wanting to avoid a gruelling race going in the JLT makes sense, "avoiding" the RSA for the 4 miler doesn't, to me?

Although the 4 miler is a much bigger test of stamina (obviously!!) than the RSA I think it might start to be seen as an easier race as they go a slower and steadier pace so have plenty of time at the fences compared to the RSA which is run at a slightly faster pace. It's been seen with Cause of Causes and Minella Rocco the last 2 years that you can be held up right at the back and then it's only at the finish that they then kick into gear and often the winner or places will come from horses making headway late on

You can add unowhatimeanharry as a winner from the AB?

Ha! Good spot

[billymag]

Great work Jono, Champers on Ice due out tomorrow so he will be interesting now chasing, a bit of a forgotten horse but im not keen to underestimate him as a novice chaser.

[Kevloaf]

Fair point. Can't argue with that at all but I would say COC had already won a handicap at the festival and is a good handicapper, no more?
Minella Rocco and Native River are still only good handicappers still ... I know they have potential but I'll want to see it first (certainly in terms of future festival winners in the big races ) ... the RSA isn't likely to stack up or make one this year but the main 2 didn't run their respective races

[jono]

Westend Story (5th in the bumper) could only manage 3rd on his hurdles debut when 6/5F

Another knock for the champion bumper form

[mayo]

Great work jono - love the thread