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**Faugheen_Machine** · 10 November 2016, 06:41 PM

I'm happy to take 15/8 Barters Hill, when receiving weight from most of the opposition.

Really looking forward to this weekend.

Good luck all

**bitchy** · 10 November 2016, 07:04 PM

12.55 Cheltenham � The Glenfarclas Veterans� Handicap Steeple Chase.

Realt Mor looks to have every chance on the back of a facile victory at Down Royal a week ago and deservedly heads the market. Now 11, Gordon Elliott�s charge has had a rough time of things since winning the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup in 2013 but has shown that he retains some of his old ability with his latest victory and evidently arrives here in form. However, he now races off a mark of 140 with a 6lb penalty here and doesn�t look particularly well treated if you consider that he was beaten 31 lengths off 1lb lower at Perth back in June. He may still be well in but I�m willing to oppose him given how quickly he is turning out with the problems he has had.

With this in mind, DUNRAVEN STORM is taken to run a big race and could well provide some solid each-way value. The now 11-year-old landed the Grade 2 Arkle Trial at this meeting two years ago and went on to finish a close second in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices� Chase on his very next start. He went without a win until May this year when landing a valuable handicap chase at Kempton in good style and following a couple of below-par efforts, now find himself on only a 2lb higher mark. A line can be drawn through his pipe-opener at Chepstow last month as he usually improves for the run and although he steps into the unknown trip-wise, he has always shaped as though he would stay this far and an extended 2m4f could be the perfect tonic for him at this stage of his career.

Astracad has been mostly consistent throughout his career and should have his perfect conditions here with sound going underfoot. His form did tail off towards the end of last campaign but he has tended to be an early season horse in recent years and has gone very well fresh in the past, especially last season when getting the better of subsequent Old Roan scorer Third Intention in a competitive contest at Chepstow. He has dropped down to 1lb lower than that last winning mark here and this is just the kind of contest in which he can make his mark these days. He will likely be there or thereabouts.

Shuil Royale enters the contest in good form having struck in decent style at Aintree last month. A 6lb rise for that win sees him rise to a career-high mark of 149 and while he clearly arrives in good nick, conceding weight all round may well be a step too far in this company. The drop in trip is another concern for a horse that has been staying on well over three miles of late.

Nicky Henderson�s Ericht has been an enigma throughout his career. Plagued by injury, and temperament, issues, he has never really hit the heights since being sent off favourite for the 2011 Champion Bumper. Connections weren�t particularly confident about his chances even back then but have persevered with the now ten-year-old who never seems to run two races alike. He was an impressive winner at Kempton back in February but went completely off the boil after that and even his runner-up effort at Newbury wasn�t particularly inspiring. He could be entitled to come on for that however, for all that he remains a very risky proposition.

Bennys Mist is a likeable type but this is an altogether different test to that which he tends to excel. Venetia Williams� charge seems to have a penchant for the National fences and while he doesn�t stay far enough for the big race itself, has finished runner-up in a Topham and landed the Grand Sefton last year. He is 8lb higher here but did put in a couple of good efforts at Ascot and in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury off just 1lb lower and has the benefit of Charlie Deutsch�s 5lb claim taking some extra weight off his back. The suspicion is that this may just be a prep run before he heads back to Aintree.

Another who will likely have Aintree on his agenda is this year�s Topham winner Eastlake, although Jonjo O�Neill�s yardstick has proven effective around Cheltenham before. A mark of 148 looks as though the handicapper may have him in his grasp at present but conditions here will suit him much better than his opening gambit last month (was never going to stay 3m1f) and he does have a bit of class about him.

MY Advice

DUNRAVEN STORM � 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (SkyBet, William Hill)

1.30 Cheltenham � The BetVictor Handicap Steeple Chase.

Colin Tizzard is going very nicely at the moment, so it�s no surprise to see two entries from his stable in this valuable two-mile handicap chase. Both are new arrivals from Alan & Ann Potts having their first run for Tizzard after being moved from Henry De Bromhead, but despite an element of the unknown about both, it seems clear that Sizing Codelco is the higher-quality of the two, something a 5lb gap in the ratings doesn�t quite reflect. Bally Longford has run some fair races in defeat over the last couple of years and even defeated one of today�s opponents, Un Beau Roman, in a Galway handicap chase in August last year, but a mark of 136 seems very harsh on what he�s achieved more recently and unless Tizzard has unlocked something different in him, I find it difficult to see the eight-year-old contending at the business end.

Sizing Codelco on the other hand, looks to be relatively fairly handicapped off a mark of 141, 4lb below the mark he raced off in the Grand Annual in March. Unfortunately, he threw JJ Burke off his back after a blunder at the first fence, but on the form of his second to Shaneshill and third off 140 behind Bright New Dawn and Rock The World in a Grade B Handicap Chase over two miles, he has to hold strong claims here. Any softening in the ground would be welcome for this seven-year-old, especially over this bare two mile trip and he�s a horse that has gone well fresh in the past so a break is no concern either. The worries with him lie in the jumping department � he�s fallen or unseated three times in his last eight runs over fences and he�ll need to keep his concentration better in a race where the pace is likely to be fairly strong with plenty of prominent racers involved. Also bear in mind that no top-weighted horse has won this in the past ten years, so even though he may be the best horse in the race long-term, he might be worth swerving at short prices here.

A winner of this race back in 2014, Bold Henry races off a mark 15lb higher (140) than that day here and hasn�t run a decent race over fences off a mark any higher than 134. However, on his best effort, he�d be in with a squeak and the booking of Barry Geraghty does give some confidence in the Philip Hobbs-trained gelding � if his jumping holds up, he�ll enjoy the fast pace to tow him into the race. He�ll need some more rain though, he carries a lot of weight and no ten-year-old has won this in the last ten years, so he would be a slightly surprising winner.

The recipient of an 8lb allowance by virtue of being a 4-y-o, David Pipe�s Impulsive American must come into the race with some hope of hitting the frame after spending the last few months in good form, never finishing worse than fourth in any discipline. He�s won twice on the flat, three times over hurdles and twice over fences in 2016 so clearly knows where the line is, but at Ayr last week, he finished well-beaten in third despite receiving a similar allowance in a seemingly weaker race. Unless he�s improved significantly from that, he�s hard to fancy here.

Tom Scudamore rides him instead of nine-year-old Next Sensation, who he usually partners for his father, Michael and that is a good indication of where the one time Cheltenham Festival winner is right now. Despite winning at Newton Abbot in September off a mark of 129, he�s become very inconsistent and has also found issues with his jumping, falling twice in his last six runs. He�s another who will want to be handy, but despite that, I find it hard to see him as a player in this, even though he�s hugely well handicapped on some of his form from last year.

De Faoithesdream is another experienced campaigner at the age of 10, but also falls into the �inconsistent� category � he seems to either win or run terrible races. The Evan Williams-trained gelding was last seen winning a Listed handicap chase at Ayr off a mark of 128 and, like many of these, is best when he strides off the front. The jump up to a mark of 134, his highest ever, is not insurmountable, but it does make things much more difficult in a race where he�s not sure to get his own way.

Consistency has been the name of the game though, for Martin Todhunter�s seven-year-old, Monbeg River. He�s finished second on four of his last seven starts and won twice, so a rise in the weights from 105 to 129 doesn�t seem too harsh, even though he�s gone up 7lbs without winning in his last five starts. He was staying on well over the very sharp two miles at Wetherby last time out behind Owen Na View, giving that horse 4lb, so this test will suit better and the booking of Noel Fehily looks a good one. He�s steadily progressive, but whether he�s good enough to mix it at this level is the niggling doubt � it�s a big step up.

Over the years, we�ve seen that Irish entrants in this type of event at this time of year (see Rock The World last year, Black Warrior running well a few weeks ago as just two examples) are always ones to take a lot of notice of. Here, Barry John Murphy sends over his seven-year-old, PAIROFBROWNEYES, who has some very smart form in the book including a second placed finish to Sub Lieutenant at Limerick, who went on to beat Outlander in a Grade 2 Chase at Down Royal after. He was fifth on his seasonal reappearance in the Grade 2 PWC Champion Chase at Gowran Park, staying with some useful rivals such as Ballycasey, Road To Riches and The Game Changer until after the last when his lack of fitness told � that�s some pretty strong form in the context of this race. His decent third place in a 2m4f Grade A handicap chase at the Punchestown festival also reads well as it was won by subsequent Charlie Hall winner Irish Cavalier, again, just weakening late on as the distance stretched him a little. This return to shallower waters and a stiff two miles should be spot on and even though he�d love for the heavens to open, he�s no slouch on decent ground either. A mark of 136 might underestimate him and he wouldn�t be being sent over by a trainer with a very small string unless there was a good chance of coming back with some prize money � he looks a good each-way bet in a race that could be there for the taking.

MY Advice

PAIROFBROWNEYES *- 1pt e/w @ 13/2 (BetVictor)

2.05 Cheltenham � The Steel Plate And Sections Novices� Steeple Chase.

With a roll of honour boasting subsequent Gold Cup winners Denman and Imperial Commander in the last ten years, this is a contest that always gets the pulses racing and this year�s renewal looks to be another high quality affair.

Barters Hill will likely be a warm order and probably deserves his place at the head of the market. Unbeaten in his first seven starts, including the Grade 2 Champion bumper at Aintree and Grade 1 Challow Novices� Hurdle at Newbury, Ben Pauling�s charge suffered his first defeat when fourth in the Albert Bartlett at this year�s Cheltenham Festival. He probably just didn�t quite get home there and shouldn�t be inconvenienced by the drop back to the extended 2m4f but this is a tough race to be making his chasing debut in and given the number of front runners in the field, it is unlikely that he will be able to bowl along in front as he would like.

With the likely strong pace on offer, it could prove a test of jumping which may well inconvenience the other two chasing debutants in the field. Sizing Tennessee was a fairly smart bumper horse earlier in his career with Willie Mullins and had reportedly schooled well over fences when with Henry de Bromhead. Now with Colin Tizzard, he could well prove a decent chaser but this looks a tough opener for a horse who has had his fitness issues over the years.

O O Seven completes the chasing debutants and he boasts some very smart form over the sticks having finished runner-up in a pair of Grade 1s earlier in the year. His inexperience may just catch him out here while the ground will likely be against him given the two times he has ran on good going, he has been well beaten (for all that they were in the Champion Bumper and Neptune Novices� Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival).

His stablemate Theinval is a likely outsider but boasts the most experience over the larger obstacles. He shaped well for a long way at Chepstow last time out and will be winning races but looks up against to turn the tables on his re-opposing vanquisher Rock The Kasbah despite an 8lb pull at the weights.

Philip Hobbs� charge looked supreme in winning on his chasing debut, travelling smoothly and jumping well in the main before finding another gear to forge clear on the run-in. That race looked to be a pretty tough early season contest on paper but he emerged head and shoulders clear of the opposition and entered many a notebook. However, he has the burden of the maximum 8lb penalty for that win and although I believe he can go far in the novice chasing ranks this year, conceding at least 3lb all round may be a step too far against this calibre of opposition.

Flying Angel fell in the contest won by Hobbs� six-year-old but looked beaten when doing so and despite being a most progressive handicap hurdler last term, doesn�t look to have enough quality to get in the mix here. Therefore, ITS�AFREEBEE is the selection on the back of his debut chase win at Fakenham last month. He won in decent style, as he was entitled to, but it was the way he jumped that really caught the eye as he popped over every obstacle. Granted, his jumping wasn�t put to the test late on, but it still proved to be a decent pipe-opener. He had fairly inauspicious beginnings in bumpers in Ireland before being snapped up by Dan Skelton and embarked on a rapid progression culminating with victory in the Grade 2 Supreme Trial at Haydock. His only defeat on British soil came when a highly respectable third behind Yorkhill and Yanworth in the Neptune (when almost forced out) and with further progress expected, he can lay down a marker in the novice chasing ranks.

MY Advice

ITS�AFREEBEE � 1pt win @ 5/1 (General)

**bitchy** · 10 November 2016, 07:05 PM

2.40 Cheltenham – The Neptune Investment Management Hyde Novices’ Hurdle Race (Grade 2)

This is perennially one of the most fascinating early season novices and, with a roll of honour including the likes of Coneygree, Black Jack Ketchum and Fingal Bay, while Blaklion, Reve de Sivola, Berties Dream, Wichita Lineman and Imperial Commander have all finished in the frame in the last ten years, it really is a race where the notebooks must be out!

Champion Court is the only winner since the race achieved Grade 2 status not to have a hurdles win to his name (it would have proved difficult given he had only competed in two bumpers!) and given the quality of the race, it would prove difficult for a maiden to prevail. Of the two that fall into this category in this year’s renewal, Nicky Henderson’s Baden has the strongest credentials given he does have an Irish point win to his name and he did produce some decent displays over the sticks last season. However, his jumping left a bit to be desired at Punchestown last time out and he can’t afford to make any mistakes in this company.

Bally Gilbert was a warm order ahead of his British debut back in April but was just found out for a bit of toe over an extended two miles in a Market Rasen bumper having tried to lead from pillar to post. That was probably to be expected given he had stayed on well in a pair of Irish points and he should be more suited to the trip here. The form of his bumper second has been franked with the winner going in under a penalty subsequently but a contest of this nature is no easy starting point going hurdling.

The Irish have been out of luck in the Hyde Novices’ Hurdle with not even a single victory to their name since its inception back in 1996. Powerhouses the likes of Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have sent challengers over and failed which doesn’t bode well for the pair of Irish raiders lining up here. On official ratings, Crosshue Bay looks to have a lot to find with the rest of the field but was travelling well at Punchestown last time out when brought down and does have the benefit of Davy Russell (who has 100% strike-rate on the six-year-old) in the saddle.

Peter Fahey’s Peregrine Run boasts the best form in the book having stayed on well to score at Listed level at Limerick last month. He only broke his maiden at the end of August at the seventh attempt but has gone from strength to strength since then. A sound surface seems to be the key to him so conditions should be ideal but there may just be a few less exposed improvers in the field.

In the eight years the Hyde has been run as a Grade 2, only Fingal Bay (who went on to win the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle two starts later) has managed to shoulder the top penalty to victory. It could well prove to be a difficult task once more but Wholestone has improved immeasurably on the drying ground and fully deserves his place in the line-up. The five-year-old showed a great attitude to win in a 3m novice at the Showcase Meeting and is clearly well thought of by connections but the drop in trip wouldn’t seem the obvious move and is 3lb wrong at the weights with the re-opposing West Approach.

The 3lb pull puts Colin Tizzard’s charge on an even footing with his old adversary but he is another that would probably be more effective over further. That being said, although he remained a maiden all last season, he broke his duck in fine style over 2m1f at Newton Abbot back in May in a race that has worked out very well with the runner-up Ozzie The Oscar hosing up at Wetherby recently and the third-placed Black Corton going in twice subsequently, including in a Listed novice hurdle at Kempton. He is one of the more experienced competitors in the field and could run a big race.

Leith Hill Lad was easy to back at Kempton last time out but forged clear in eye-catching fashion and justified favouritism to win by a length from Lough Derg Leader. The runner-up boosted the form when winning at Bangor on Wednesday but he looks a little bit short of the quality required to take this contest.

Of altogether more interest is SPIRITOFTHEGAMES who remains unbeaten after a win in an Irish point and a dominant display in a maiden hurdle at Ayr last time out. He passed through the ring at the Goffs UK Spring Sale in May for a reasonable �50,000 and went some way to repaying that back when creating a grand impression on debut for Dan Skelton last month. It was an even more striking performance given that most of Skelton’s have come on for the run and leaves it only to the imagination as to how good he can be. Barring a minor mistake at the last, his jumping was proficient throughout and he kicked on in some style to put the race to bed on the run-in. This is a big step up but he escapes a penalty and receiving weight from the majority of the field (7lb in some cases) makes him a major player.

Fellow four-year-old Pilansberg could prove to be the biggest danger if he puts it all together over hurdles. The ex-French campaigner changed hands for 100,000gns at Tattersalls last October having finished third in a Group 2 on the level for David Smaga at the Arc meeting earlier that month. He rated a fascinating recruit to the national hunt ranks but mistakes put paid to his chances when pitched in at the deep end in the Grade 2 Adonis Hurdle at Kempton in February and he was subsequently put away for the summer. His jumping was better when scoring on his return at Fakenham but there was still room for improvement and he showed distinct signs of greenness, which is a tad bemusing given he had run 11 times on the flat. His ability is undoubted but this may just come too soon for him at this stage of his hurdling career.

MY Advice

SPIRITOFTHEGAMES – 1pt win @ 11/2 (BetVictor & Paddy Power)

3.50 Cheltenham – Markel Insurance Amateur Riders� Handicap Chase.

The final race on the first day of the meeting sees the amateur riders take centre stage and the weights are headed by Silvergrove, who was last seen finishing third in Kim Muir over 3m2f at the Festival. Prior that that, Ben Pauling’s eight-year-old had been progressing nicely, winning twice at Newbury and Kempton and in truth, he didn’t lose much in defeat behind a ready winner in Cause Of Causes. He returns here off just 1lb higher and whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the mix, I think he could find it difficult to concede weight to some of the less exposed members of the field.

A glance at the recent roll of honour suggests than it is often the better known jockeys who come out on top in this contest. Whether that is down to their riding ability or the fact that they tend to be on the better horses I’m not sure but it is certainly a factor worth considering. In this year’s field there are a couple of familiar names including Jamie Codd, who partners Fayette County for Tim Vaughan. The nine-year-old has always been thought highly of by connections but he has largely found it difficult to find his way into the Winner’s Enclosure. However, he managed just that at Worcester last time, rallying gamely under pressure to get up in the shadow of the post. He has gone up 5lb for that effort and with Codd taking over from 3lb conditional Alan Johns, he is effectively up 8lb so from a handicapping point of view I think he has plenty on his plate.

Katie Walsh also heads over from the Emerald Isle to partner James Nash’s Your Busy who was second at Aintree on his most recent outing. Despite being at the ripe old age of 13, the gelding has turned in two solid efforts on his last two starts, having finished a close third to Double Ross at Chepstow the time before. Both of those runs came in veterans’ races but they were both competitive affairs and if he reproduced those efforts here, he wouldn’t be too far away.

Sam Waley-Cohen is of course no stranger to success at Cheltenham and he gets the leg up on Charlie Longsdon’s KILFINICHEN BAY. The eight-year-old last got his head in front at Warwick in September and the form of that race has worked out well, with the runner-up Master Dee having won twice since. Longsdon’s gelding couldn’t build on that at Kelso last time but he likes to be held up and I think this big-field scenario will play to his strengths here. He has won off his current mark of 135 in the past and with the stable very much amongst the winners, I think he has a solid each-way chance.

There are a number of others who need a mention including David Pipe’s Top Wood who has been given a chance by the handicapper. He was rated as high as 144 when tenth in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter but a modest display over an inadequate trip last time has seen the nine-year-old dropped to a mark of 136. Pipe has booked crack Irish amateur Lisa O’Neill to ride and having taken this race twice in the last decade, he looks to have a leading chance this time around.

Troika Steppes loves it around here and was seen to good effect when making just about all to win over course and distance in October. Ali Sterling seems to get a good tune out of the eight-year-old but the handicapper has put him up 9lb for his latest effort and that could make life difficult. Robert Walford’s Saint Raph also arrives in from having won on his final two starts of last season. He is up 11lb for his ready success at Taunton in April, which looks harsh enough considering there were just the five runners and the second hasn’t done much since.

Godsmejudge won the Scottish Grand National off a mark of 139 back in 2013 and whilst he has sparingly shown that sort of form in the last two years, he could be thrown in here on a mark of 122. However, the most interesting runner in the field could be Tony Martin’s Our Sox who gets in here on 10st 2lb. He was just held at Musselburgh last week but travelled well for a long way under Denis O’Regan and he has next to no weight on his back here. His trainer is renowned as a shrewd placer of horses and although he needs to step up again to win here, he can’t be ruled out.

MY Advice

KILFINICHEN BAY – 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power)

**bitchy** · 10 November 2016, 09:50 PM

anyone else fancy anything 2moro ?

**Istabraq** · 10 November 2016, 10:03 PM

Just the one bet for me bitchy and I'm all over Barters.
I get your arguments against him but I think 15/8 is a cracking price about a horse who could easily be RSA fav come March, I'm a little concerned he could do with 2-3f further but the strong pace will suit and Pauling is certainly getting them fit for their pipe openers this year, the yard is on fire.

**Faugheen_Machine** · 10 November 2016, 10:05 PM

I've had a small interest in Pairofbrowneyes. Mainly for the reasons you've listed above Bitchy. The Sub Lieutenant form could turn out to be a decent run in defeat.

**mouseyaa21** · 11 November 2016, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

Just the one bet for me bitchy and I'm all over Barters.
I get your arguments against him but I think 15/8 is a cracking price about a horse who could easily be RSA fav come March, I'm a little concerned he could do with 2-3f further but the strong pace will suit and Pauling is certainly getting them fit for their pipe openers this year, the yard is on fire.

Do we get our money back for it not finishing lol All you can do is laugh...

**Faugheen_Machine** · 11 November 2016, 03:13 PM

@benpauling1: I'm afraid BARTERS HILL has slipped the tendon off his hock. We are all devastated but he will be back in the to fight another day.#bravelad

**paz247** · 11 November 2016, 04:36 PM

I think 6months at least recovery for Barters, a shame for all connections and those who backed him for the Fest, but he goes on to fight another day and hopefully be back as good as new next season for a crack at the RSA

**Faugheen_Machine** · 11 November 2016, 05:40 PM

Two additional bets tomorrow. Doctor Harper ew 12/1 and Alvarado ew at best morning price (hoping for 25/1).

Already got taquin De Seuil 25/1 and Frodon 12/1.

Good luck all

**dazzler** · 11 November 2016, 06:58 PM

Gavin Sheehan looks to have a good book of rides tmw at bigger prices , I will put them in a multiple bet for tmw.
Warrantor 16-1
Bouveril 14-1
Out Sam 10-1
Mems horse 9-1
Ew Yankee.

Good luck everyone.

**bitchy** · 11 November 2016, 07:11 PM

Cheltenhams Open Meeting Day 2 - Saturday 12/11/2016

12.40 Cheltenham � JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial.

A very interesting juvenile contest to start proceedings on day two and history suggests it pays to concentrate on those at the head of the betting, with eight of the last 10 winners going off at 4/1 or shorter.

Another interesting trend worth noting is that eight of the last 10 winners of the race had some previous hurdling experience in the UK, seven of which had won on these shores. However, the two horses in the last ten years to win on their UK debut�s where Hinterland and Sam Winner, both trained by Paul Nicholls. The champion trainer is again represented by a UK hurdling debutant in the shape of Wealth Des Mottes, who has had one run to date when winning at Clairefontaine in July. This son of Silver Frost received a favourable mention from Pupil Assistant Harry Derham earlier in the week and clearly comes into the race with untapped potential. However, he has to give weight away to all of his rivals, as well as race fitness, so is passed over on this occasion but is certainly one to watch in the future for his powerful stable.

Dino Velvet is another interesting runner and he represents the Alan King yard which won the race in 2006 and 2007 with Katchit and Franchoek respectably. King�s excels with his juveniles and this French recruit looks the perfect type for this division having gained some experience on the level in France. He�s also had a run for his new trainer when 4th of 8 at Chester in September so should be straight enough for this. Dino Velvet hails from the same sources which recommend the yards smart sorts Walkon, Mille Chief, Gibralfaro and Oceane, which itself commands respect. But as touched on earlier in the piece, the lack of hurdling experience could catch him out on this occasion and may be one to follow on his next start.

This leads me to a horse that caught my eye four weeks ago, DEFI DU SEUIL. Hailing from the Philip Hobbs yard which won the race in 2014 with Golden Doyen, he looks to hold the strongest credentials going into this race. He has the all-important UK hurdling experience thanks to a routine win at Ffos Las, admittedly he was 1/4 and was entitled to win the race, but he basically cantered the whole way round and won as easy as you like. His jumping was very professional for a juvenile on his hurdling debut and he can put this experience to good use here. Prior to joining Philip Hobbs the son of Voix Du Nord had won the second of two outings on the Flat, doing so impressively and showing he possesses a great engine and smart turn of foot. He certainly ticks a lot of boxes and rates as an exciting juvenile for his powerful connections and it would be disappointing if he wasn�t involved in the finish.

Of the others East Indies and Nucky Thompson both arrive on the back of recent victories, and have decent Flat form in the book, but are likely to struggle to give 4lbs to the likes of Defi Du Seuil and Dino Velvet in a much deeper contest.

Nick Williams won the race in 2009 with Pistolet Noir and he saddles Diable De Sivola. He hung badly at Huntingdon last time so did well to finish as close as he did and back on a left-handed track he could sneak a place if everything goes to plan this time around.

MY Advice

DEFI DE SEUIL � 2pts win @ 9/4 (bet365)

1.50 Cheltenham � BetVictor Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

A quality turnout for this Grade 3 staying chase and last year�s winner, Sausalito Sunrise, is back for more, this time off a mark 14lb higher, but it�s genuinely possible that he�s a 14lb better horse now. His third from a mark of 159, 1lb higher than today, at Sandown Park�s season-ending Bet365 Gold Cup (Whitbread) was a superb run on ground that was arguably too quick for him to show his best � all his wins have come on at least good to soft � so it can be marked up. The fact he�s been dropped to 158 makes him very tempting in a race that Sam Winner won off top weight in 2014, but you can�t help but think that on his reappearance, he�ll find one or two better handicapped.

Minella Rocco is the obvious horse in the lineup in terms of hype, but for me, this National Hunt Chase winner has plenty to prove off a huge mark of 155, especially with his stable in typically quiet early-season form. It was a good performance at the Festival to defeat Native River, but he needed plenty of time at the start of last season, like many of Jonjo O�Neill�s string, to hit top gear and I have a feeling it could well be the case again, even though he�ll be a very popular choice for many.

Upswing is another from the O�Neill stable who looks to hold claims in this; especially given he was a close second in the race last season and has a 13lb swing with Sausalito Sunrise. His last three runs were a little limp though and he�ll have to bounce back in a big way if he�s to challenge � he was particularly reluctant in his first race of the season at Chepstow, being pulled up after 13 fences.

Fifth in this race last season, Shotgun Paddy is a dependable old campaigner and should run his race once again here. Emma Lavelle�s gelding has slipped down the weights and even though he probably wants further than this ideally, he�s a well-handicapped contender off 4lb lower than for his Eider Chase second in February.

The in-form Colin Tizzard has two in the race and while his ex-Irish horse Viconte Du Noyer is an intriguing contender up significantly in trip on his stable debut, it is Fourth Act that looks the clear stable number one. He ran well at Ascot in the Sodexo Gold Cup Chase, a similar race to this over slightly shorter, showing that this longer trip might well be able to draw more out of him as he was staying on well at the end. He races off the same mark here, but his only trip to Cheltenham previously was a total write off as he never travelled a yard in the Close Brothers Listed Chase at the festival this year, which does go down as a worry. However, he will have come on for his reappearance in a hot race and certainly holds a chance.

Five of the last nine winners of the race have carried less than 10st 3lbs and over this far a trip, every pound can count. Nigel Twiston-Davies� COGRY sneaks in at the bottom of the weights here, and complete with Ryan Hatch�s valuable 3lb claim, he will only have to carry 9st 13lb round the course come Saturday afternoon. He has some good form in staying handicaps off higher marks than this, so he looks a very well-handicapped animal off 134 if he could only put together a solid round of jumping. It�s been his Achilles heel in the past and it was his undoing on his last run over C&D as he fell at the first, but he was very well-supported that day and that confidence can�t go without being noted. It looks as if he�s prominent in the betting already for this and taking the early prices could be a shrewd move for a horse that finished a two and a half-length fourth in this race last year off a 2lb higher mark. He�s still nice and fresh after not getting past the first last time and if he can hold it together, he has to have a big shout of finally fulfilling his potential in a race that seven-year-olds have won four of the last five runnings.

MY Advice

COGRY � 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (BetVictor, William Hill)

2.25 Cheltenham � BetVictor Gold Cup.

One of the strongest trends associated with this race is the one related to official ratings and the desired bracket is between 136 and 150. This accounts for all but one of the last ten winners, with Al Ferof having won off a mark of 159 four years ago. In terms of this year�s field it eliminates the top seven as they appear on the racecard (from Ballynagour down to Sizing Granite) as well as the bottom two Thomas Crapper and Potters Cross.

When we consider the age of recent winners it is clear that seven-year-olds come out on top, having been successful in six of the last ten renewals. Unusually for this race there are only two seven-year-olds in this year�s lineup, Johnny Farrelly�s Stiletto and Rebecca Curtis� Vintage Vinnie. Of the other four races in the last decade two have gone the way of six-year-olds which is a positive for the likes of Art Mauresque, Double Shuffle, Aso and As De Mee.

Weight can often play a big part in the outcome of competitive races such as this and the BetVictor Gold Cup is no exception. Of the last ten renewals only Al Ferof has carried more than 11st 5lb to victory which confirms that Ballynagour down to Sizing Granite are up against it.

Strong form on their most recent start is something that has served horses well in this race in the past. Seven of the last ten winners had finished no worse than fourth on their last start, something that all but four of this year�s field have in common. However, this stat has to be taken with a pinch of salt as many of these horses will be making their seasonal debuts on Saturday so recent form may be as far back as March or April.

In terms of trainers, there are three yards which have tasted success more than once in the last decade, they are Nigel Twiston-Davies (2008 & 2010), Jonjo O�Neill (2006 & 2013) and the Paul Nicholls yard (2012 & 2014). The first named is without a runner this year but it is worth taking a second look at runners from the other yards.

The final factor worthy of mention is the betting and historically this is not a race in which it is worth taking a punt on one at a big price. In fact six of the last ten winners were sent off at single figure SPs with Little Josh (20/1) the biggest priced winner in the last decade. More Of That currently leads the market at around 9/2 with the likes of Frodon, Double Shuffle and As De Mee also available at single-figure odds.

Shortlist

AS DE MEE � 5/6

Frodon � 5/6

Stilletto � 4/6

Conclusion

With all of the factors considered the one who comes out on top on the trends front is AS DE MEE. The six-year-old had some smart form as a novice last season chasing home the likes of More Of That and Bristol De Mai. His form somewhat tailed off after that although he did run better than his finishing position suggested in the Topham in April. He had a wind operation over the summer and had no trouble getting off the mark at Fontwell on his return to action last month. He sits towards the foot of the weights on 10st 8lb and with his wind operation seeming to have done the trick, he looks to have a leading chance.

As De Mee�s stablemate Frodon also makes the shortlist having also missed just one of the trends. Paul Nicholls� gelding has made a fine start to his career over fences, winning his first three starts including the Grade 2 Rising Star Novices� Chase at Wincanton last weekend. He ticks plenty of the trends boxes but one major obstacle he has to overcome is the age trend. We mentioned earlier that seven-year-olds held the upper hand in recent years but Frodon is bidding to become the first four-year-old winner of the race. He did jump a fence as a three-year-old in France so is perhaps a little more forward in his development than we would expect a four-year-old to be.

The final member of the shortlist is Stilletto who has his first run since leaving the yard of Paul Nicholls. Now in the care of Johnny Farrelly, he won twice over fences last term at Catterick and Leicester but fell early on at the Festival in March. The seven-year-old has only had the six starts over fences so far so there could still be more to come from the gelding.

MY Advice

AS DE MEE � 0.5pt e/w @ 9/1 (bet365, SkyBet)

**bitchy** · 11 November 2016, 07:12 PM

3.00 Cheltenham � Regulatory Finance Solutions Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)

This looks like one of the trickiest puzzles on the card, but looking at the past ten winners of the race, it becomes clear that no winner in that time has carried more than 10st 13lb. That�s some bad news for the �bigger names� in this, such as Irish Saint, Fingal Bay and Out Sam, who begin their seasons over the smaller obstacles before presumably returning to Chasing. The Eaglehaslanded looks a bit harshly handicapped off 142 and although the decent ground and Jack Sherwood�s 5lb claim will help on that front, he might need to come down the weights a little to be a win contender.

Allysson Monterg is a tough horse that I like � he finished sixth in the brutal Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at the Festival this year and if he�s come back from his break in good form, he might go well. He is carrying 11st 1lb and he�ll probably be better when the ground is softer, but Richard Hobson�s charge should give his running under Aidan Coleman.

Valhalla, Will O� The West and Very Extravagant are the three current co-favourites at the time of writing and it�s easy to see why after all three showed plenty last time out. Valhalla was second in a competitive 2m 5f handicap won by Midnight Shot here three weeks ago, looking as if this step up in trip would suit, so off a 3lb higher mark, he looks sure to be involved at the business end.

Henry Daly�s Will O� The West ran very well indeed in a Pertemps Qualifier over a furlong or so shorter here, just going down to Golden Doyen and For Good Measure, both very useful types. However, the 2lb rise he received is added to the loss of Jack Sherwood�s 5lb claim, so he�s gone up 7lb effectively. That makes it a tough ask to go and win here, even though he�s clearly a five-year-old on the up.

After bagging a hat trick of wins, Neil Mulholland�s Very Extravagant is certainly a mare going the right way, she�s been superb since she�s been stepped up to staying trips and is as genuine as they come. This trip will suit, as will the relatively sound surface and with no weight on her back, she could well be staying on nicely up the hill at the end. However, the same comment appears in all of her last three races � �a weak race� � and this step up in class is certainly a significant one, so she could find that it�s a leap too far, no matter how genuine she is.

Some Kinda Lama, on the other hand, is going for the hat trick after landing two races over this trip at Hereford in October. Again, we�re looking at a significant rise in class of the company he�ll be racing against, but he�s in such good form, it�s hard to dismiss him. Charlie Mann had a winner at Cheltenham on Friday and who�s to say that he won�t make it two with an unexposed, progressive contender such as this five-year-old. The 8lb rise in the weights won�t help him though and he�ll probably prefer faster ground than the likely good to soft he�ll get here but five year olds have done fairly well over the past few years in this race despite a small sample size and he�s certainly one to consider each-way.

However, there is another five-year-old that looks to be in with a big chance in this and after a very creditable second to the well-handicapped Paddy Power (now Bet Victor) Gold Cup winner Caid Du Berlais at Aintree, GOODBYE DANCER is the selection. Nigel Twiston-Davies� string is in good form at the moment, with Astracad winning here on Friday and Wholestone going close later in the day, so there are no worries there and this horse is certainly race-fit after 3 runs already this season. He races off the same mark as when second last week and retains the helpful 3lb claim of the excellent Jamie Bargary, who�s in very good form himself (6 winners, 4 places from last 17 rides). As just a five-year-old, it�s more than reasonable to expect further progression and improvement, so if he�s stepped up on that last effort, he has to have a huge chance of hitting the frame at the very least here � 16/1 certainly looks a generous offer.

MY Advice:

GOODBYE DANCER 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power)

3.35 Martin & Co Jewellers Intermediate Handicap Hurdle.

A competitive big field handicap hurdle which has been dominated by 5 and 6-year-olds in recent times, taking nine of the last 10 runnings. Black Corton is likely to be a popular selection for Champion trainer Paul Nicholls arriving here on the back of two wins. However, whilst he promises to stay this trip, this is his first try over this far. It is also his first run in a handicap against some hardened types who are proven off their current marks, so he does have some question marks to answer.

Meme�s Horse is an interesting runner for Harry Fry but he only has two runs over hurdles to his name, so may prove vulnerable to some more streetwise rivals. Who Dares Wins is a likeable type and has plenty of experience, and whilst he ran a cracking race behind Ballyoptic in the Silver Trophy last time out, he it�s hard to see this four-year-old shouldering top weight to victory.

Traditional Dancer and Midnight Shot both arrive here gunning for a hat-trick of wins and cannot be overlooked lightly. The former has recent wins at Kelso and Carlisle to his name but he has a lot more on his plate here off an 8lb higher mark, in a stronger contest. The latter was an impressive winner over course and distance and looks the best place to add to his tally of wins. However, a 7lb rise puts him on a career high mark and could be vulnerable to something better handicapped.

Board Of Trade runs off the same mark as when second to a well-handicapped rival at Fontwell and is still unexposed. As is Emma Lavelle�s Fortunate George who was an impressive winner when last seen in April. He has 7lb higher mark to contend with on his seasonal debut but there could still be mileage in his mark and warrants the upmost respect if ready to roll.

For me the one horse that has the least question marks to answers is FOR GOOD MEASURE, a horse I have followed throughout his career being a brother to the stable�s Balthazar King. He has gone agonisingly close on his last two starts, being beaten a head and a short-head, and for me remains feasibly treated off a 3lb higher mark. He looked a shade keen on his seasonal debut at the course 21 days ago and the slight step down in trip looks a wise move. His RPR ratings have steadily improved on each of his last three runs and there is every reason he is still improving. JP McManus owned last season�s winner of the race and he looks to have a strong candidate again with this lad. At 9/1 he looks very solid each-way play in the race.

The main dangers could be Robin Of Locksley who ran a fine race from the back behind the Midnight Shot, and the 3lb pull in the weights should see him on the premises. Top Of The Town could also have a big say having finished just behind For Good Measure last time. A 2lb pull gives him every chance but I expect the selection to have more improvement in him.

MY Advice

FOR GOOD MEASURE � 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (SkyBet, BetVictor, Paddy Power)

**Istabraq** · 11 November 2016, 09:26 PM

12.40 Defi Du Seuil 9/4 win
1.50 Minella Rocco 8/1 e/w
2.25 As De Mee 9/1 e/w
3.00 Will o the West 9/1 e/w
4.05 Ms Parftois 12/1 e/w

Good luck all

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