2017 Ryanair Chase

[Kevloaf]

Black Hercules doesn't go to the festival by the sounds of it, if anyone had him down for this race.

One of my first bets this season was Black Hercules Amy race at 7/1! Been under performing all season and was hoping a return to the festival would spark him back to life. Writing was on the wall though when Patrick Mullins said he isn't a spring horse particularly. Yet another winner from last year a no show!

[doctorwu]

I have backed Sub Lieutenant in here at 14/1. Obviously highly rated by the team, was well fancied at Thurles last time (went off 11/10 fav in a race with last years JLT winner and this years Irish Gold Cup winner in the field) and the only horses to beat him home this season are well enough fancied in the Gold Cup. Rated 162 which is up there with the best of them in this race, could also have a bit of improvement in him yet. Also, the likely favourite in here needs it soft to show his best, which we might not get.

I'd forgotten about SL. Thanks for reminding me finch.

[Zipiter]

I've had a few quid ew on Alary @66-1 on Betfair sportsbook.

I'm just going on the horses reputation from France, the expectation that was from Tizzard and the fact that he was once a Gold Cup horse at 20-1.

[finch]

I'd forgotten about SL. Thanks for reminding me finch.

Forgotten horse = bigger price

[ryanh97]

I've had a few quid ew on Alary @66-1 on Betfair sportsbook.

I'm just going on the horses reputation from France, the expectation that was from Tizzard and the fact that he was once a Gold Cup horse at 20-1.

Ive had a pt e/w at 66 too

[kinloch brae]

I think it is a probably a reflection of getting it badly wrong with this horse but Elliott seems to be continually underplaying Empire Of Dirt. In the last few days he has talked about Death Duty as if he is 1/2 and Empire Of Dirt 10/1. Empire Of Dirt is by far his most solid chance of a winner. He ticks all the boxes; best horse in the race, course and distance winner and although he is better on a sounder surface any rain will not be an issue. Death Duty is unproven at the track and potentially unproven on the ground.

[finch]

I think it is a probably a reflection of getting it badly wrong with this horse but Elliott seems to be continually underplaying Empire Of Dirt. In the last few days he has talked about Death Duty as if he is 1/2 and Empire Of Dirt 10/1. Empire Of Dirt is by far his most solid chance of a winner. He ticks all the boxes; best horse in the race, course and distance winner and although he is better on a sounder surface any rain will not be an issue. Death Duty is unproven at the track and potentially unproven on the ground.

Empire Of Dirt the best horse in the race!? Is this the horse running in the race that has been won 8 out of the last 9 years by a Grade 1 winner, who has never won a Grade 1!?

[ComplyOrDie]

I think it is a probably a reflection of getting it badly wrong with this horse but Elliott seems to be continually underplaying Empire Of Dirt. In the last few days he has talked about Death Duty as if he is 1/2 and Empire Of Dirt 10/1. Empire Of Dirt is by far his most solid chance of a winner. He ticks all the boxes; best horse in the race, course and distance winner and although he is better on a sounder surface any rain will not be an issue. Death Duty is unproven at the track and potentially unproven on the ground.

You said exactly the same about if he were to take on Djakadam (my bet for the race) in the Gold Cup. I'm all for sentimental reasoning behind backing a horse, lord knows I have done this many a time, even if it is likely to lead me to the poor house, but you really seem to like this horse, I'm just interested to know what piece of form makes him such a strong bet for you?

He's now 10 years of age so likelihood is all improvement has now gone, yet in that time has at best managed a Grade 3 win, and that is at best. You could argue his best form has been this season and that run in the Irish Gold Cup would lead him to have every chance in whichever race he runs in, but for me, that form is questionable.

[kinloch brae]

You said exactly the same about if he were to take on Djakadam (my bet for the race) in the Gold Cup. I'm all for sentimental reasoning behind backing a horse, lord knows I have done this many a time, even if it is likely to lead me to the poor house, but you really seem to like this horse, I'm just interested to know what piece of form makes him such a strong bet for you?

He's now 10 years of age so likelihood is all improvement has now gone, yet in that time has at best managed a Grade 3 win, and that is at best. You could argue his best form has been this season and that run in the Irish Gold Cup would lead him to have every chance in whichever race he runs in, but for me, that form is questionable.

If you are serious about betting you can't do sentimental. He was 40/1 first quote, so at that stage there were not many believers, including the trainer. He was a strong bet for me straight after passing the line in the Plate. That win was gained virtually on the bridle after being significantly hampered.

He is now not far off being favourite for the Ryanair so is it really folly to suggest he is the best horse in the race? He bolted up in Troytown and then he was produced on the bridle to win the Irish Gold Cup but unfortunately he was impeded at last. Had that not e happened he would almost certainly gone extremely close to making a successful transition from handicaps to Grade 1 in one step. He might be 10 but I am not sure how anyone could suggest he is not improving. That Irish Gold Cup performance was mid 160's with the potential for another 7lbs to come. Yes, that Irish Gold Cup form might be questionable for the likes of Sizing John and More Of That but Empire Of Dirt finished second despite the way the race was run. I really believe that had they gone a proper gallop he would have won on the bridle.

Although a late starter he has always been a decent horse but he used to burn himself out from the front. The hold-up tactics and improved jumping have taken him to a new level.

[ComplyOrDie]

If you are serious about betting you can't do sentimental. He was 40/1 first quote, so at that stage there were not many believers, including the trainer. He was a strong bet for me straight after passing the line in the Plate. That win was gained virtually on the bridle after being significantly hampered.

He is now not far off being favourite for the Ryanair so is it really folly to suggest he is the best horse in the race? He bolted up in Troytown and then he was produced on the bridle to win the Irish Gold Cup but unfortunately he was impeded at last. Had that not e happened he would almost certainly gone extremely close to making a successful transition from handicaps to Grade 1 in one step. He might be 10 but I am not sure how anyone could suggest he is not improving. That Irish Gold Cup performance was mid 160's with the potential for another 7lbs to come. Yes, that Irish Gold Cup form might be questionable for the likes of Sizing John and More Of That but Empire Of Dirt finished second despite the way the race was run. I really believe that had they gone a proper gallop he would have won on the bridle.

Although a late starter he has always been a decent horse but he used to burn himself out from the front. The hold-up tactics and improved jumping have taken him to a new level.

Haha all my sentimental betting was when I was in my gambling infancy, learnt very quickly that is not the way to go.

Fair play, I'm not saying he can't win, but on his profile I'd suggest he won't, and again I didn't say improvement hadn't gone, purely that I personally do not know of many horses that start improving aged 10, although Colin Tizzard seems to think Cue Card is better than even suggesting there may have been some improvement in there, so taken on the trainers word I guess it's possible.

[jonthehammer]

Forgotten horse = bigger price

Definitely a case for Sub Lieutenant in this.

Last 3 horses to beat him ., sizing John, djakadam and outlander are all gold cup bound.

[Morning Glory]

Definitely a case for Sub Lieutenant in this.

Last 3 horses to beat him ., sizing John, djakadam and outlander are all gold cup bound.

Agreed - and he will go here still some doubt about EoD in my head

[mayo]

I think it is a probably a reflection of getting it badly wrong with this horse but Elliott seems to be continually underplaying Empire Of Dirt. In the last few days he has talked about Death Duty as if he is 1/2 and Empire Of Dirt 10/1. Empire Of Dirt is by far his most solid chance of a winner. He ticks all the boxes; best horse in the race, course and distance winner and although he is better on a sounder surface any rain will not be an issue. Death Duty is unproven at the track and potentially unproven on the ground.

What has Elliott done wrong with Empire of Dirt ?

Colm Murphy had him for 4 years and only worked him out early last year.

[kinloch brae]

What has Elliott done wrong with Empire of Dirt ?

Colm Murphy had him for 4 years and only worked him out early last year.

I have tried to explain this several times. He had him down as a Grand National horse, two miles beyond his optimum trip. He had mooted keeping him over hurdles to keep his mark down. He didn't seem to have a clue about his trip or that he was a Grade 1 horse. I think it is purely down to the intervention of Gigginstown that the horse has began to realise his full potential.

Last night I couldn't believe how downbeat he was despite being on the verge of training a Grade 1 winner. He couldn't have made it more obvious that he wasn't happy that Gigginstown had insisted the horse ran in the Ryanair. I suspect it was his idea to try and run Don Poli in the Bobbyjo with a view that if that horse blew out then Empire Of Dirt would be switched to the Gold Cup. It was pretty obvious he now sees Empire Of Dirt as better than Outlander and Don Poli.

[mayo]

A pity Gigginstiwn didn't intervene when he was at Colm Murphys then. I'd be very slow to question Gordon's judgement - brilliant trainer imo.