2017 RSA Chase

[jono]

One of my favourite races at the festival and I love following the novice chasers throughout the season.

Current best odds as of 10th September 2016:

Thistlecrack 6/1
Alpha Des Obeaux 8/1
Aux Ptits Soins 14/1
Bellshill 14/1
One Track Mind 16/1
Buveur D'air 16/1
Yorkhill 20/1
Barters Hill 20/1
Itsafreebee 20/1
Ibis Du Rheu 20/1
Cole Harden 25/1
Shantou Village 25/1
Unowhatimeanharry 25/1
25/1 the rest...

Pretty clear we can dismiss the fav in the race so that leaves a horse i'm really intrigued about in Alpha des Obeaux as being the next best in the market.

A look through his form book shows a lot of 2's in there but when you start to go through the horses that he followed home:

Vote of Confidence over 2m
Black Hercules over 3m
Douvan over 2m
Thistlecrack over 3m (Fell at the last but would have been second so i'll count it as 2nd)
Nichols Canyon over 2m 4
Arctic Fire over 2m 4
Prince of Scars over 3m
Thistlecrack over 3m

And suddenly they don't look to bad at all. Twice had only the monster that is Thistlecrack finish in front over a staying trip. Getting within 3 lengths off Douvan over 2 miles. Beaten over 2m 4 by Arctic Fire and Nichols Canyon who both have placed in a Champion Hurdle. Add in the fact that he has always been considered a chaser in the making, looks the part to relish staying trips over fences and will have no concern on ground conditions. Gigginstown know a thing or two about staying chasers as does his trainer Mouse Morris. The last 2 RSA chases have featured a short priced fav in the Gigginstown colours (Don Poli and No More Heroes) and he looks tailor made to follow the same path.

With all that in mind I was already eyeing up the 8/1 for the RSA straight after Cheltenham having proved he handles the festival atmosphere and course.

Then a really disappointing run at Punchestown at the end of the season followed which has made me ponder whether my excuse of him just running into top class horses/non ideal trips was masking the fact that he just doesn't get his head in front and he may be a perennial loser?

I'm eager to right that race off as just an off day where he never ran his race at the end of a long season or should I be worried he may always just find one other horse better on the day?

One Track Mind convincingly beat Alpha des Obeaux that day and it's confirmed he goes novice chasing. Is he a good price at 16/1? Are the prices wrong considering that result perhaps?

I'm a massive fan of Alpha Des Obeaux and keen to get peoples thoughts on him too.

[Istabraq]

Ignore Thistlecrack's price, if he takes to fences he goes for
gold, connections have no interest in winning an RSA...

[Kevloaf]

I'm also of the opinion Alpha Des Obeaux is a strong contender for this race. I have an each way double with On The Fringe (62/1) and I think the target is assured. Second over the World Hurdle was a bonus when they've bought him to be a staying chaser. Can't see any other target at all (owners don't aim there good ones at the 4 miler and best form over further than 2m4f).

Last year this race through up what I considered to be a bit of a surprise as I had it down as a match between NMH and MOT, and a less 'sexy' horse won, in Blacklion... I can see ADO going off fav for this but I think right behind him in the market will be Barters Hill and at 20's now that just seems a great price.

[jono]

Yeah hopefully we haven't seen anything near the best of Alpha des Obeaux yet.

I think Barters Hill is definitely the value at 20's right now.

[Istabraq]

Didn't someone say that Barters shortened for the JLT last week ?
Can't believe they're looking at that race but anyone looking to get with Barters for the RSA may want to bear that in mind

[Kevloaf]

I think 14s for any race is fair really for Barters Hill. I am on at 20s for the RSA but will back the 14s for 'any race' before the season starts proper just in case, and to top up. My gut says RSA but Ben Pauling has hinted at least twice that he has speed for shorter.

Aux Ptit Soins was in my thoughts but the price isn't exactly jumping out at me. Important to see them just a fence in the RSA, on hurdle form More Of That was well clear of anything else in the race and was still 5/2 or 3/1 around the day... Alpha Des Obeaux, to my mind, has the best form of any of these (including Cole Harden) over hurdles and therefore is a fair fave.

[jono]

I definitely want to see Aux Ptit Soins stack up a couple of runs together. The talent is clearly there but looks such a fragile horse - couldn't go near him this early for antepost

[cwright23]

Massive fan of APS and you get the feeling PN and everyone in the yard like him, whenever he was asked of his future stars in the making he was the 1st name on his lips. He genuinely thought he was a player in the world hurdle on season debut.. I think even this early on 14/1 is a very good price. He could come out in November and destroy an average field over 2m 4f and half in price for both the JLT and RSA

[billymag]

APS has had a good summer and its all systems go the problems he had before were sinus/teeth issues, so youd be hopeful of a clear run, I would view it as a positive that they werent leg problems, maybe he has just been unlucky rather than fragile. I think ive mentioned a bit earlier I think hew will be JLT bound as the horse is not short of speed and PFN might be looking to avoid a gruelling RSA with what might be his best horse and only realistic chance of another Gold Cup in the next few years.

[Kevloaf]

PP are 10's for Aux Ptit Soins in the "win any race" market

[Istabraq]

Useful update billymag. thanks

[mayo]

With a clear run Barters wins this on the way to 2018 gold cup.

[Kevloaf]

With a clear run Barters wins this on the way to 2018 gold cup.

Oooooh yeeeeeeeees. Thinking about getting myself down to see Barters chase debut, so in 2018 in the aftermath of him dominating the Gold Cup I can reminice about being there on a cold wet October day

[Vanilla]

My fancy for the RSA is Alpha Des Obeaux.

He has been campaigned over three miles and has very sound grade 1 hurdle form in the book.
Having been placed in behind Douvan, Thistlecrack, Arctic Fire and Nichols Canyon, he seems to have a bit of class about him.

Gigginstown, like myself, love nothing better than a good chaser.

With the forum already plunging on Altior, the 8/1 about Alpha is good value.

Will we soon be watching the 8/1 sailing over the horizon?

[mayo]

My fancy for the RSA is Alpha Des Obeaux.

He has been campaigned over three miles and has very sound grade 1 hurdle form in the book.
Having been placed in behind Douvan, Thistlecrack, Arctic Fire and Nichols Canyon, he seems to have a bit of class about him.

Gigginstown, like myself, love nothing better than a good chaser.

With the forum already plunging on Altior, the 8/1 about Alpha is good value.

Will we soon be watching the 8/1 sailing over the horizon?

Yep. But is he the best one they have ? Probably but so many.