2017 RSA Chase

[Kevloaf]

Interesting to see Coney Island versus ADO tomorrow... Lepo 1.55 .... Even if ADO loses I'll still fancy him for this


Might Bite in at 16s?

[Zipiter]

I liked the look of Our Duke today in that novice chase in Leopardstown. He hit the 2nd last lost a bit of momentum and for many horses that would have been game over but he stayed on very well to fight out a finish with Drinmore winner Coney Island.

ADO was very disappointing I felt. Prominent but then was visibly struggling and was pushed along before being eventually pulled up.

It was the determination in the finish though that impressed me with Our Duke. Jessie H did mention that she was worried a bit about how he would tackle the ground today but he did it fine. However anything firmer than todays yielding to soft ground may perhaps be of concern....

Not one Id be backing antepost but he is one that in my opinion would warrant respect come March, if indeed he does travel.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I read that ADO bled during the race - the reason for him being pulled up. A worrying development though.

[Zipiter]

I read that ADO bled during the race - the reason for him being pulled up. A worrying development though.

Just read that there now too. worrying alright. They never are right after bleeding are they?

[Faugheen_Machine]

I generally steer clear of them after they've bled. Unfortunately I've already got him on side.

[Istabraq]

Our Duke had tremendous cruising speed but he was slow and deliberate ant many of his fences, showed great heart to get back up but will need to sharpen up over the obstacles, but there's plenty to like about the horse...

[Kevloaf]

If the irish horses are finishing so close together, suggests that maybe there isn't a stand out. Looks a good level of form, and if Bellshill imprves for the step up he looks the 'right' fav on irish form... but I think the best performance I've seen so far is Might Bite. If he hadn't have been ragged in to the last for no reason, and popped it... he'd have to be shorter than a general 12/1 chance. (14s in a place)

However, the irish might just be a better crop altogether though. Just looking for an angle, and until the two meet, there is a chance that Might Bite is way ahead? Any thoughts?

[jono]

Just watched the ADO race today. I actually thought he was running a lovely race just before that mistake.

Definitely a concern with the bleeding. I imagine it'll take a fair effort from Mouse Morris to get the horse back on track and ready for the race let alone primed to win the race. It's a tough old race too so it wouldn't be surprising if he travelled well in the RSA and then bled again come the final stages. I remember hearing a stat on the likelihood of a horse bleeding again once they've done it once - it was very high if i recall?

I thought Our Duke was beat but he showed great determination and speed to get back up to win. He beat Price of Scars on chase debut too who although hasn't quite taken to fences was one of Elliott's horses to follow at the start of the season.

Might Bite certainly put the best performance by a British horses at this trip so far this season. Politolgue would interest me but I think Nichols is reluctant to send him over 3miles this season.

Here's what henderson said of the horse beforehand:

I really enjoyed watching him win at Doncaster from the Stan James box at Cheltenham where he jumped very well and to be honest it is ALL about the jumping and gaining confidence with him as he should have won at Ffos Las but was just a bit ‘novicey’ which was his undoing but he learnt plenty there and I thought it was a good performance at Doncaster as he just cruises along at a good gallop so I have no concerns with the trip as he is not short of stamina and likes it around Kempton having won at 2m5f over hurdles there last season. I’m looking forward to it – The only person who can get Might Bite beaten is Might Bite himself!

He should have changed that last line to The only person who might get Might Bite beaten is Daryl Jacob!!

[Kevloaf]

MIGHT BITE MIGHT BE VERY GOOD INDEED

Comparing times of the King George VI Chase and Kauto Star Chase can often reveal some interesting surprises. That was certainly the case this year, as Thistlecrack's King George time was only 0.3secs quicker than the time posted by Royal Vacation, who carried 3lb less, in the novice chase run just over an hour earlier.

But of course Royal Vacation was an extremely lucky winner as he was around 15 lengths behind Might Bite when the Nicky Henderson-trained chaser capsized spectacularly at the last. Might Bite would probably have been eased down but even so, his time would have been exceptional.

How exceptional is very difficult to say. By my hand timing, runner-up Virgilio, who was beaten 12 lengths, came in around 2.5secs slower than Royal Vacation, so if we allow Might Bite a similar beating to the winner, then his time would have been just over two seconds faster than Thistlecrack!

Just seen this on SL website which backed up what I'd seen!

[Brital]

I think you may be onto something Kev, and we can put a line through a lot of the Irish entries.
Our Duke wasn't just poor at the last, his jumping looked sketchy at a lot of fences.
He seemed to lose ground at each obstacle only for his better engine to make up the lost ground in between each. So he's either a very special horse or more likely the rest aren't.
Do we know if Might Bite will be aimed here?

[Kevloaf]

I generally steer clear of them after they've bled. Unfortunately I've already got him on side.

What is the reason behind that FM.... I'm not in a position to know why it would be such a long term issue. I always thought it was just a small issue, like a human nose bleed?

[Faugheen_Machine]

When they bleed it affects there breathing (explains why ADO stopped suddenly) and horses who have bled in the past are prone to bleeding again.

[Kevloaf]

When they bleed it affects there breathing (explains why ADO stopped suddenly) and horses who have bled in the past are prone to bleeding again.

...and I suppose you don't know until it has happened. A shame, I really do like ADO for this race.

[GoOnAndTha]

Afternoon Gents

Been a reader for a while but decided to try and contribute to the discussions.

I am very keen on Might Bite. I was dissapointed when he lost to Binge Drinker in november and felt Nico DB could of given him a better ride. I'm a big D.Jacob fan so when he got on board for the ride at doncaster I thought the horse impressed even though he was a odds on. He flew his fences and I thought this horse will be interesting in better company.

I got 9/1 for his Kauto chase race and was gutted as I had him in a £20 double with Poker School. I was baffled when he was lauched at the last fence.

RSA seems a race he could really run a great race and I am on at 14/1 E/W

[Istabraq]

Welcome GOAT

Stamina looks to be a given and you hope he'd learn from the error that cost him at Kempton, if that;s out of his system he's a big player for sure...