2017 RSA Chase

[Faugheen_Machine]

14/1 in a place. Definitely an over reaction imo

[jono]

Was 14/1 after the race with Skybet but has since been clipped into 12's. A surprising reaction from the bookies actually as the majority have left him unchanged at 7/8's whilst a couple went 12/14's. I expected him to be pushed out to 10's throughout after that.

Very strange run really. Jumped ok, had a few inexperienced jumps but you can always forgive that on debut, didn't strike me as looking a natural over fences if i'm honest though. He looked very big from the race replay unless that was just me? Mouse Morris is known to take a slow approach with his horses and prime them for the big occasion so I think there's plenty of room for improvement as let's be honest the only way is up really from that performance. Also looked to lack the speed which was always a concern at that trip, with 3m very much being his optimum.

All in all i think we'll see him in much better light later in the season but although I hate to have a knee jerk reaction after 1 run on chasing debut i'm not quite sure he is as 'made for fences' as myself and many others thought.

[Bayoffreedom]

I was amazed that he ran in a 2m 4f novices chase instead of the 2m 7f beginners chase at the same course on Tuesday. If they were scared of Jetstream Jack then that would be a problem. Makes no sense to me.

[Morning Glory]

I was amazed that he ran in a 2m 4f novices chase instead of the 2m 7f beginners chase at the same course on Tuesday. If they were scared of Jetstream Jack then that would be a problem. Makes no sense to me.

Mouse started First Lieutenant of in the same race so might be just a case of old habits.

[Kevloaf]

I am getting tempted to have a bet on ADO now at 12's. I'll try and get through the weekend. If I wasn't in love with Barters Hill so much I'd already be on... 12's is too big. 99% going for the race and Mouse as about as good a 'target trainer' as I can think of.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I am getting tempted to have a bet on ADO now at 12's. I'll try and get through the weekend. If I wasn't in love with Barters Hill so much I'd already be on... 12's is too big. 99% going for the race and Mouse as about as good a 'target trainer' as I can think of.

Can't argue with any of that. First Lieutenant was ran below most people's expectations all winter in his novice chase season but Mouse had one target in mind, and he very nearly best Bob's Worth in the RSA. Could be a similar story with ADO.

[jono]

I'm holding out on both those mindsets too. I was still a little underwhelmed with his performance. Obviously he bombed out but I had expected him to look more of a natural over fences regardless of the result. Compare that to some of the early novice chasers we've seen so far from the likes of Flying Angel, Frodon etc I felt they looked like they have taken to chasing very well. But again like mentioned Morris trains his horses very differently to the likes of Nichols and NTD who campaign their horses to win and peak throughout the year. The comparison to First Lieutenant is a good one too

I'm keeping the faith

[Kevloaf]

One Track Mind hasn't been mentioned yet in this thread but he did beat ADO in the grade 1 at the end of the season and a 3/4 defeat behind Reve De Sivola over hurdles at Haydock is really good form too!

Not a lot of juice in the price at 16's but maybe they think he'll improve as a chaser. Greatrex issued a positive statement about how well he has done over summer and how big he looks...

"Horses who have caught my eye after their summer grass are One Track Mind, Le Bague Au Roi, Aloomomo, Fly Du Charmil. They have come back in looking big and strong and this bodes well for the season ahead. Like I said earlier I am delighted how the majority have come back and this is really exciting. The bigger and stronger they are means the more I have to work on and plus it should keep them in good shape for the whole season. "

Only ran once at Cheltenham and was 3 lengths down in 5th but did slip after the 5th flight which can't have helped... was fav that day. One I will be keen to see over a fence!

[jono]

One Track Mind is one that kind of skipped by my radar until that Punchestown race at the end of the season. Greatrex is definitely very positive on this horse and all the vibes are very bullish on how he's been schooling so agree he's of definite interest for how he takes to fences. His price should stay pretty decent throughout the early part of the season just because he's an 'unfashionable' trainer and the market will heavily gravitate towards the higher profile trainers (APS, Bellshill) and horses that performed at the previous festival (ADO, Barters Hill) so I think he's a horse where you can have a look at his first 1 or 2 runs before going in.

I see ADO is entered up in the 2m6 Beginners Chase at Thurles this Thursday. A quick chance to rectify that poor performance if he runs. I know their is a common saying that Mouse Morris primes his horses for the big day and I tend to go along with that but have purposely kept on eye on his runners over the last few weeks to see how he is performing - 0/13 over the last 2 weeks. The majority of the horses were double figure odds so not all expected to win but of his single priced runners:

Smashing - 5/1 - 6/6 beaten 30 lengths (though ground never suited)
ADO - 9/10F - 5/5 beaten 18 lengths
Just Cause - 11/2 - 2/13 beaten 1.5 lengths
Grotesque - 8/11F - 14/18 beaten 89 lengths

So that very much suggests that his runners are a long way off thier peak right now. I'd have been much more worried with ADO's performance if Mouse had fired in a couple of winners in this time.

[jono]

Also Barters Hill should make his chasing debut at Bangor-on-Dee on Thursday 25th. Really want to get involved in the 20's for this race with him before his debut but I feel the JLT/RSA decision will rumble on throughout the season so may have to settle for the lower any race odds. Latest quotes from the trainer:

Barters Hill is going novice chasing and the plan is to start him over two and a half at Bangor on October 25th. I almost stayed at two and half with him last year.

I listened to a lot of experts and they thought he was an out and out three miler so I was more than happy to run him in the Albert Bartlett. I was more tempted at running in the Neptune than you may have thought.

[Kevloaf]

Barters Hill destination looks like it could go right up until the wire and be ground dependant? (JLT if soft - RSA if good)? I'd be (and am) tempted by the any race odds now.

I did go in again at 12's on ADO as I feel it was an over reaction, the stable form that jono has highlighted I'll happily believe vindicates my thoughts... (could be a case of finding what you want to see) but I think 12s could look silly after his next run

[Faugheen_Machine]

Do you know where they are planning to run ADO next?

[jono]

Do you know where they are planning to run ADO next?

He has an entry this Thursday in the beginners chase at Thurles over 2m6

[Kevloaf]

Expecting (more than hoping) to see an improvement on last time. To be out this quickly it can only be 'match fitness'? That 12's will be gone by the weekend...

[Faugheen_Machine]

Did anyone watch ADO today? If so, what's the verdict?