2017 RSA Chase

[BigChaang]

Afternoon Honourable Members, Love the forum , and like johar , decided to join in ., Missed the bigger prices , but after
Saturdays run , Very keen on Royal Vacation now for the R.S.A. ,16-1 today., given that M.Bite is 6,s , Surely worth an E/W punt,
??.

[BigChaang]

R.S.A ChASE

Afternoon Honourable Members, Love the forum , and like johar , decided to join in ., Missed the bigger prices , but after
Saturdays run , Very keen on Royal Vacation now for the R.S.A. ,16-1 today., given that M.Bite is 6,s , Surely worth an E/W punt,
??.

[Kevloaf]

Welcome Big Chaang.

There are plenty of examples of Tizzards handicappers improving and running well at odds at 16/1 - 25/1. Target is guaranteed and I think you'll get a run for your money. Not my idea of the winner, but Might Bite is, and we all know the result last time they both ran in the same race

[cwright23]

Bigchang wouldn't it mean mite bite is surely a good bet compared to your theory.. No hard luck story in there race at Xmas and can't see any evidence why the form may be reversed.. MB would probably of won 25L.. If you get beat 25L in an RSA you've probably finished 7th or 8th?

[mayo]

Welcome BC. Get your angle ..backing "unlucky" losers can be the way to the poorhouse although I thought jock got it badly wrong. Is Nico back before the fez ?

[Cashew King]

Is Nico back before the fez ?

He finds out tomorrow if he can ride this weekend:


Nico de Boinville will learn tomorrow whether he will get the green light to resume race-riding at the weekend.

Fresh from schooling red-hot Arkle favourite Altior this morning, the 2015 Gold Cup winning jockey has an appointment with his consultant which will determine if his return is imminent.

Back in November, De Boinville badly broke his arm in a fall at Cheltenham, which resulted in nine screws and a plate being inserted on the operating table.

"My return is not far off now," he told Gloucestershire Live.

"I will know more tomorrow. If the doctor is happy it is definitely a possibility (returning at the weekend) - and hopefully the boss will let me ride a couple."

[Leman14]

Right...

I'm keen to take Bellshill on in this (having got him covered at bigger prices) and I've been hovering over backing Might Bite and/or Coney Island.

Am I right in thinking that:

Might Bite - correct target BUT IF he goes to Cheltenham at all?

and

Coney Island - Could be this OR JLT?

Does anyone know if any updates that either confirm or contradict the above?

[Kevloaf]

Your thoughts are correct. Buveur D'air was shortest for the JLT which means Coney Island MIGHT go for the JLT in his place... if that looks more winable than the RSA maybe?

Quotes after Coney Island won over 2m4f were that he'd be going futher .... but I am not certain after he was beaten (Albeit not by far) over a further trip last time. 10/1 NRNB though, that seems fair!

Might Bite will surely go after the boost he got at the weekend... I'd gamble on the 7/1 avail rather than 9/2 NRNB. (If I wasn't already on)

[Faugheen_Machine]

Good point about Coney Island possibly going JLT instead of BD. I have him for the RSA but I think I've done my money and it'd probably be the right decision to go for the JLT.

[Kevloaf]

NRNB for both at 10/1... I'm not even sure what to make of him.

1 win in 3 chase starts, beating Anibale Fly, who has been hit and miss? Defeat to Haymount over 2m4f on debut isn't GREAT form and when he had the step up in trip he was in a tight finish with Our Duke (who isn't going to the festival - which must be a negative regarding his ability/chances of winning any race there this season?) and 1/2 ahead of Disko who has been 'well regarded' for almost two years without actually ever showing it... Disko's best race IS that 3rd behind Coney Island... so maybe the form isn't all that good.

Talked myself out of having a bet for the time being... Overall the form might actually be good enough to place but in the RSA you'd have to think he is HELD at least by Bellshill making him a reasonable each way price, rather than a good one... In the JLT you'd reduce his win chances and I'm not sure I need him onside?

[Istabraq]

I'm desperate to get with Might Bite but 365 have taken no chances with their NRNB price of 9/2, though this may actually still be value....

[jono]

Quotes from Harty last Thursday:

Coney Island had a break after his run at Christmas. He is back now and we are looking forward to March,” Harty said of JP McManus’s six-year-old.

"I thought it was a very good run at Leopardstown. He might have been found out by the three miles on the day, but I could not have been happier. I certainly wouldn't swap him for anything.

"I think distances of the JLT and RSA come alike to him to be honest. He has got the pace for two and a half and I think, in the right circumstances, three miles is not a problem either. I am quite happy to go either way.

"It is not like he is a dour stayer or just all speed. He seems to have a bit of both and, because of that, it makes sense to wait until nearer the time before deciding his target.

"Whether he has another run before Cheltenham, I am not sure. We will just play it by ear."

I'd read those quotes as definitely leaning towards the shorter JLT race. The Buveur D'Air switch would seem to suit JP too. Also a quote before this:

You'd like to think he's a Gold Cup horse, but you hate to say those things, you need a lot to go right

To me it sounds like it's all about a tilt at the Gold Cup next year and he'll still be pretty cautious (as cautious as you can be with a good horse and the Spring festivals approaching) and he'll go for whichever race is less taxing on the horse in the long run. I'm not one that says the RSA is a brutal race that bottoms horses so i wouldn't right off the RSA because of that, more so what may be the 'easiest' race for him to win/compete in

[Kevloaf]

Thanks jono... backs up my thoughts then... that is enough for me to consider the bet in the other race. Consider is all for now... although price could move fairly quickly as people work out the Buveur D'air switcharoo?

[darlojim]

Might Bite entered at Kempton on Friday, hoping for a good round of jumping and to win convincingly. Form has already been boosted by Royal Vacation and Frodon today also, could start fav at this rate! Loving the 16s i took

[Zoowraa]

Looked at this race in a bit of detail last night and the Irish form looks pretty strong.Might Bite has the best of the English form, but happy to take him on as I just suspect it might be a flat track horse and the juicy prices are gone now anyhow.
Bellshill looks good, but at the prices and doubts about Cheltenham form then he has to be taken on. Coney Island and Disko look solid and should run there races if turning up here. Genie in abottle looks useful too but the 4miler might seem the best option for him.
Singlefarmpayment has been impressive, but I see it running well without winning.
Having reviewed the race again, at the prices I have found myself drawn to O O Seven at 20/1 NRNB . Though this is the only entry so likely it will be turning up here if all is well.
Its won around the Cheltenham fences and whilst the race not working out that well, it still had some decent novices in behind and won impressively. I struggle to explain the Doncaster run, yet still not beaten far and got the job done at Huntingdon last time over a sharp 2m 5f off a big weight.
I think the Donny run makes him a bit of a forgotten horse here and at decent prices I am willing to forgive him that run and think something was not quite right with him.
At much bigger prices, Label Des Obeux could outrun his price of around 40/1 as I think he has contested decent novice events and been beaten by some useful horses.