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Mullins added of Irish Arkle absentee Min, who was not declared for the race on Friday after a bang to his knee: "There is no update on Min. We will get the weekend out of the way first."
It was nothing serious and he was much better on Monday
Min drifted a fair bit on the exchanges today actually along with Altior shortening up. Probably nothing in it though slightly interesting that PP cut Altior again to 8/13 if you take into account their link with Ruby and the yard
Kim Bailey still not decided where Charbel goes... Said next run will decide, Arkle, JLT or possibly a handicap! Horse has been coughing... happy now with him.
I have no idea how forecasts odds are worked out so couldn't say if this really is value but off the top of my head that sounds pretty decent? Certainly if anyone has missed the prices on Altior and fancy him to win...
Kim Bailey still not decided where Charbel goes... Said next run will decide, Arkle, JLT or possibly a handicap! Horse has been coughing... happy now with him.
Good to hear - still a fan of the horse. I guess if you read into those comments you could say it's an indication he may fall short to compete in the top races if they are considering handicaps. Or it's just realism that he just can't compete against Altior, Min & Yorkhill.
Trying to find an each way angle in this at the moment and he is one possible. This race and the Champion Chase will both cut up to below 9 runners imo so i'm trying to find an each way in both for a multiple to pick up the extra place before it becomes the top 2 placed only.
I have no idea how forecasts odds are worked out so couldn't say if this really is value but off the top of my head that sounds pretty decent? Certainly if anyone has missed the prices on Altior and fancy him to win...
Good question, I don't know either.
Odds on fav to beat 3/1 2nd fav can't be 6/1 on the day? - Backing one horse to turn up is hard enough though... take a brave man to have a big bet on it?
Suppose it depends what odds the SP forecast would be? I bet someone awake knows...
Trying to find an each way angle in this at the moment and he is one possible. This race and the Champion Chase will both cut up to below 9 runners imo so i'm trying to find an each way in both for a multiple to pick up the extra place before it becomes the top 2 placed only.
I think the EW in this is the equivilant of a 7 runner race... 2 of the spots are filled, so you're looking for a price about 1 spot almost?
Champion Chase I am going to go hunting around in again now...?
Odds on fav to beat 3/1 2nd fav can't be 6/1 on the day? - Backing one horse to turn up is hard enough though... take a brave man to have a big bet on it?
Suppose it depends what odds the SP forecast would be? I bet someone awake knows...
Ive done a bit of research and theres no exact answer, it's done on some long algorithm that hasnt been put in the public. It takes into consideration the number of outsiders amongst other stuff apparently. I've tried looking at the past few days results to get a kind of example of around a 4/6ish beating a maybe 3/1 but cant quite find one
Update - The 2.40 at Fontwell on Friday had a 4/7 shot beating a 3/1 horse, the SF paid £2.92. Whether this would be the same based upon the other factors I dont know but its as close as I can get
Last edited by ryanh97; 30 January 2017, 11:51 PM.
Min is weak on the exchanges, to back is 6.0, a little bit of money waiting at 9.0
Not good news. The Altior camp (of which I have a big tent right in the middle) can't be too happy either because Yorkhill could get rerouted and that'll be am even closer match!
As we've said before, it can be an expensive hobby trying to second guess Willie. I was told last week that the injury to Min was worse than reported but don't think I shared it on here.
As we've said before, it can be an expensive hobby trying to second guess Willie. I was told last week that the injury to Min was worse than reported but don't think I shared it on here.
I have heard that elsewhere too. Be a shame if he doesn't make it... one of the most exciting potential 'match-ups' of the festival which is lacking really as a whole and I love it when horses and clashes cause debate
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