2017 Arkle Trophy Chase

[Kevloaf]

No suggestion from Ruby that Min injured himself in the Supreme, just beaten by a
better horse....

Yep, he has said that plenty of times now. I think they know anything can happen and they won't be scared of one, but they really have nothing to lose...

If they play Min down, and he gets beaten by a better horse, they'll be more than happy to admit Altior is a special horse... safe in the knowledge that Douvan (in theory) sets the standard for next season! What a clash that could be, and then we'll know exactly how good Douvan is. All wonder horses need something to spur them on and I think it is in the back of Ruby's mind.

Of course this might all be nonsense, and Douvan goes up in trip and clashes with Thistlecrack... either way, I have digressed and am excited!

[jono]

Ruby has talked impressively about Min I get the impression he knows a very very good horse lies in wait in the Arkle in Altior and it'll take something special to beat him this year.

I know it's wrong to think too far ahead and anything can happen but all being well, po I love the idea of Douvan not being able to hide next season. Potentially Stay at 2 miles and he'll face Altior, or step up in trip and take on Thistlecrack. A mouthwatering battle whichever way Mullins decides to take the horse

...or he ends up going Ryanair and avoiding both

Coral are currently doing a 6/1 special on Altior to remain unbeaten in 2017. (one run needed). Thoughts?

In almost all circumstances Altior gets to March unbeaten. The acid test will be in the Arkle but if he gets through that as myself and many expect surely then the bet would come down to the Tingle Creek if/and a match up with Douvan was to occur but i'm not sure Willie would be desperate to bring him over for it if Douvan was to stay over 2 miles next year. Right now the 2m division in Britain looks Altiors to lose so essentially the risk is if Douvan turns up in the Tingle Creek

p.s they also offer Douvan at 6/4 - with that I guess it's how confident you are that either Douvan potentially beats Altior in the TC / Thistlecrack in the KG or just stays over in Ireland mopping up those races.

[Kevloaf]

Probably not worth the wait on Altior at 6/1.... for the amount you'd want to invest. 31st December 2017 pay out? Not for me ...

Fully echo the douvan comments. If he turns up in the Ryanair I will not watch racing ever again.

[jono]

Yeah it felt a bit too skinny to have to wait a whole year, double figures than I certainly would have gone in I think

[Istabraq]

That Altior bet looks OK to me, you're actually backing the horse to win probably his next 3 races.
I don't know whether they'll give him another run but if they do it'll be in a soft race where he'll be 1/6 again, he'll be a short price for the Arkle and they might let him have a go at the big novice chase at Aintree in which Min won't come over so he could be silly short against.
Next season he'll make his reappearance in another soft race for second season chasers, I don't see Hendo sending him for the Tingle Creek where he could face a test but even so if Douvan doesn't come over he'd be short for that.

The price is OK, treat it like an ante post Gold Cup bet placed during Aintree....

[Kevloaf]

I think sitting on 5/1 to win the Arkle changes the appeal of the bet somewhat.

If he wins the Arkle I'll get paid out and although he may then remain unbeaten, for 1 pt more I certainly wouldn't trade.

I suppose that changed my outlook. Still, not for moi.

I don't like the Douvan one at 6/4 either... if he stayed at 2 miles you're probably not far off having a BIT of value, but some horses don't NEED to be backed to enjoy. Frankel became unbackable and Douvan is most of the time too, plus he does tend to chance at leasst 1 every time...



I would like to state for the avoidance of doubt, that I do not think Douvan is better than Frankel

[Brital]

The bet also has the advantage of any injuries or set backs work in your favour once he's won the next race.
After all my torn up a/p 'good things' for Cheltenham this year, that's not a minor consideration ��

[Kevloaf]

The bet also has the advantage of any injuries or set backs work in your favour once he's won the next race.
After all my torn up a/p 'good things' for Cheltenham this year, that's not a minor consideration ��

Interesting angle. Didn't consider that. BE a silver lining to any injury. Stiill, I don't like winning due to injury or falls or anything else. All part of the game but not quite as satisfying.

[jono]

Some good points, when I think about it I like to have the odd bet just before the festival for next year's festival now and again so it's no different to that, though generally it'll be on odds of 10/1 plus.

I do think if I wasn't on Altior for the Arkle yet the 6/1 would appeal a fair bit more but just below what I would want being on him for the Arkle already. Though I am also suspect on these bets...my experience is of both Sprinter Sacre and Faugheen when both looked unbeatable when the bet was introduced to go unbeaten and both suffered defeat/injury albeit this has the advantage of only needing 1 run when I think both of those required 3 (both at the start of the season).

Just seen Altior has an entry for the Clarance House at Ascot later this month. I know it's not uncommon for horses to have multiple entries, but not always in open events when still a novice. He could likely appear in the Game Spirit soon (which would be the race if any that I expect him to run in as his last prep run) and was also entered in both the novice and open 2m race at Sandown over Christmas. Nicky Henderson is very cautious trainer in running his horses but I take out of these entries outside of novice company is that he must be absolutely flying at home and is showing something truly special!

[Kevloaf]

Nothing but confidence to take from those entries. Game Spirit is the same route Sprinter took and it just exudes confidence to me. I think Altior is still value now and due to Min being a good competitor and his connections he'll be slightly UNDER RATED and a very generous price on the day.

[Kevloaf]

American Tom running and Yorkhill NOT on Sunday over 2m at Naas

[Faugheen_Machine]

NJH blog has just said that he doesn't know who will ride Altior in the future. I thought Nico would be a certainty but it didn't read that way.

I like Fehily so really happy he may keep the ride.

[Kevloaf]

NJH blog has just said that he doesn't know who will ride Altior in the future. I thought Nico would be a certainty but it didn't read that way.

I like Fehily so really happy he may keep the ride.

That is music to my ears! I do like NDB but Fehily is better, more experienced and has started to build a relationship with the horse over a fence. I'm not saying I'd be against Altior either way, but I do see that as a positive.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Agreed - I can only see it as a positive too.

[Morning Glory]

Maybe Daryl has picked up the ride

Fehily over Nico all day long for me - jockeys might be only athletic group who seem to improve with age.