2017 Arkle Trophy Chase

[Faugheen_Machine]

Plenty of blue on oddschecker for Min over last 24hrs. Ricci sounded bullish last night.

[Kevloaf]

The better Min is, the more likely Yorkhill goes for the JLT.... then the doubles are in play and I can enjoy it

I would be scared of IT beating Min and crushing my dreams... I think I'd prefer the potential at this stage

[cwright23]

Do you lads have any links to the rich ricci interview? I can't find it anywhere

[billymag]

If you join the dots together at the moment id say that Yorkhill will be staying over hurdles and going for the Champion Hurdle. Whether you can trust the dots though is another matter!

[Istabraq]

Market doesn't see it that way billymag, cheapest lay price is 110 for CH, I'd say the horse has chase targets and will only revert to timber if he shows jumping issues.

[Kevloaf]

Can't see what dots you're joining billy?

The yard have two very credible options for the CH.

Ricci seems bullish enough that Min is going to take Altior on again, and we know Altior is going for the Arkle...

History would show us Ruby wanting to ride the best possible chance of winning as many races as he can... so 're-routing' Yorkhill away from both of those races....

They're my dots anyway....

[jono]

Can't see what dots you're joining billy?

The yard have two very credible options for the CH.

Ricci seems bullish enough that Min is going to take Altior on again, and we know Altior is going for the Arkle...

History would show us Ruby wanting to ride the best possible chance of winning as many races as he can... so 're-routing' Yorkhill away from both of those races....

They're my dots anyway....

Got to say that's exactly how I see it. I'm struggling to think why they would keep him back for a crack at the CH. The only two reasons I can think are:

A. Graham Wylie is trying to force the target (maybe - but he has talked up Yorkhill being a Gold Cup horse)

B. Faugheen and Annie will be 10 in the 2018 CH so you feel this year maybe their last top chance at the race. Maybe Willie is thinking he thinks Yorkhill can take up the mantel of his CH main hope after this season? He'd be 8 in March 2018. (can't see it)

C. He's just not taking to fences (has been said he's taken to fences well in schooling so unlikely)

I can't see either really but that was my best look at why he could stay hurdling

[mouseyaa21]

Good luck to anyone in this forum predicting what race RR is going to put his horses

[billymag]

Only talk ive heard about chasing was from Ruby immediately after the Neptune when he said about the horse winning the Arkle with his mouth open. I might of missed chasing comments though, that is very very possible but these are the official comments ive heard.

After the Neptune win "I am wondering could Yorkhill come back to be a Champion Hurdle horse? Ruby got down and said he would win the Arkle with his mouth open next year so we go home and digest all that and see what we have. I thought he had plenty of speed and he really showed it on that ground" - Willie Mullins, trainer.

After Aintree win "I thought Yorkhill was beaten at the last. When I saw him beforehand after putting the saddle on I thought that Cheltenham was maybe taking its toll, so to put in a performance like that was very good. We´ll look at Punchestown, but I´d say we would probably put him away. I´d rather go Champion Hurdle or Arkle than World Hurdle. I was in the stand at Cheltenham thinking Champion Hurdle, but Ruby came in and said he´d win the Arkle with his mouth open, so that´s a tip for next year" - Willie Mullins

This is the most recent comments that i can find from the ATR stable tour "“He has won a point-to-point and jumps fences well, but we haven’t made a final decision whether he stays hurdling or goes chasing yet. I think he could make a fantastic hurdle horse. He isn’t too far away from a run.”

From the comments ive read it seems Willie is leaning towards Hurdling. The other dots that ive "joined together" is that Yorkhill is only 6 and Annie and Faugheen are both 8. Fair enough they will be 9 at this festival but its a big ask for them to come back and do it at 10, last ten year old was sea pigeon (well he he actually won it as an 11 year old as well), in 2018 Yorkhill would be at his peak, I wonder if there is a large degree of planning for the 2017/18 season. They dont seem to have an obvious one at the moment to take over from Annie and Faugheen. The other point is they are in different ownership and they had no problem pitching Nichols Canyon in last year against the Ricci horses on a few occasions.

I found it really interesting that Ricci but up American Tom on the ATR programme for the JLT the other night. I was lucky enough last year to hear the Min reports in August and got on at the start of the gamble, at the same time that i was told about Min i was also told that American Tom was their best Neptune horse. As a result ive had him on my radar since and he had become a forgotten horse, until Ricci ruined the price on Monday !!!lol But I wonder if they hold him in very high regard and he might be the one for the JLT.

So as far as i can see we only have Rubys immediate comments after the race to go on and people may have read too much into this, or i could be wrong. I also accept that being by Presenting he is bred for chasing but that doesnt help my argument, so we should ignore that!!!!

[jono]

Targets and plans WILL change between now and March even if all trainers and owners were 100% honest so there's always uncertainty but I genuinely believe after the Vautour episode connections may be more open in what they are planning this year. I may look extremely stupid and niave saying so come the Tuesday in March but I think last year was a bit of a turning point.

Plus for me the likes of Annie Power, Faugheen and Douvan are horses where whatever race they are in - they'll have a HUGE chance of winning and be extremely short odds. The unknown targets are the main reason the odds are attractive right now.

I'd only ever use small stakes on these horses though - definitely couldn't tie up large bets in them

[jono]

From the comments ive read it seems Willie is leaning towards Hurdling. The other dots that ive "joined together" is that Yorkhill is only 6 and Annie and Faugheen are both 8. Fair enough they will be 9 at this festival but its a big ask for them to come back and do it at 10, last ten year old was sea pigeon (well he he actually won it as an 11 year old as well), in 2018 Yorkhill would be at his peak, I wonder if there is a large degree of planning for the 2017/18 season

Beat you by 17 minutes with that theory billy

[billymag]

ha ha yes just read that, made me laugh. It just confirms that you are as mad as me though!!!!!!! ;-)

[mouseyaa21]

That would be a treat. I can't see Nicky running Altior against Identity Thief at this stage of the season though, it'd be a tough introduction.

As expected Altior does not run this week and is being set for Kempton instead now

[jono]

Not sure anything out of todays trial will be troubling the likes of Altior, Min and Identity Thief at the head of the queue!

Have to say though i'm starting to get a little anxious over the recent comments on Altior with Nicky again talking of "stepping back to hurdles if needed". The sooner he comes out and hopefully impresses on chasing debut the better. Let's hope it's this weekend

[Kevloaf]

Altior can hopefully give Nicky a bit of a boost next week after a pretty tough weekend... I'll be watching that with my little heart in my big mouth because a re-route back to hurdles will not be good news for my ante-post portfolio!