2017 Arkle Trophy Chase

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think 7/4 is as big as Altior will be between now and March. There doesn't appear to be much to rival him in Britain so he'll more than likely be heading to Cheltenham unbeaten over fences.

[billymag]

Those times could be hugely misleading (comparison with Alr Mad), clearly he did it well and im not disputing the times but they could be really misleading, for a start they are a year apart and even though the ground is officially GS in both races we dont know if the ground was the same, its very unlikely it was, youd have to know about rail movements and compare the times of the races to be sure. Secondly the overall time for Altior was 8 seconds above standard where as Ar mad was 2 seconds above standard, so Ar mad has run faster and done more throughout the race and as such his finishing effort will be effected. Youd need to know what the finishing effort was in comparison to the time to work out if the time at the end is exceptional. Im sure timeform will do the necessary calculations and it could be that Altiors run was outstanding but to take those figures in isolation is very dangerous. Altior is clearly very good and could be an even money shot on the day or even shorter.

[billymag]

Simon Rowlands has done an excellent write up for free for Timeform today and he explains far better than i tried to do about Altior. Ill try and copy and paste it if anyones interested, but makes really interesting reading in my opinion.
After an action-packed weekend of jumps racing, Simon Rowlands analyses the main races using sectional timing.

It was 12 months ago that Sandown’s early-December meeting turned up one of the most interesting sectional comparisons over jumps of the last few years.
The winner of the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase, Ar Mad, ran his race faster than did the winner of the Tingle Creek Chase, Sire de Grugy, at the same course and distance, not just from start to finish but at every obstacle along the way after the first, as described at the time HERE.
Such things are not meant to happen when up-and-coming horses are compared with established stars, but happen it did. We did not get a chance to see if Ar Mad was indeed a better horse than Sire de Grugy at the time – and by implication better than nearly all other 2m chasers around – as the Gary Moore-trained gelding was injured soon after.
The two finally met in this year’s Betfair Tingle Creek, with Sire de Grugy second and Ar Mad a rallying fourth, but the latter was having his first run since that injury and could yet prove the better animal.
What is clear is that Ar Mad’s presence made for a strongly-run race – too strongly-run for his own good in the early stages – which resulted in a time 2.5 seconds quicker than the potentially exceptional Altior achieved a bit earlier in this year’s Racing Post Henry VIII.
A similar comparison for this year’s races paints a very different picture to 12 months ago.

This time, it was the seasoned stars who were quicker, and as much as 35 lengths ahead by halfway if using 5 lengths per second as a conversion.
What’s more, Ar Mad was about a dozen lengths ahead of where he “should” have been if using his energy efficiently at that stage, given the race’s ultimate time and information derived from sectionals in well-run races at the track in recent years.
The Tingle Creek winner, Un de Sceaux, was about seven lengths off that pace at halfway and Sir Valentine – the outsider who stayed on into a pretty close fifth – was more like 15 lengths back. The latter will have run close to peak efficiency throughout.
The Tingle Creek resulted in a time for Un de Sceaux about 23 lb quicker than that for Altior in the Henry VIII, but that is in no small part because the latter contest was run even more steadily than the Tingle Creek was run strongly.
The novices had energy to burn at the end of their race, and Altior in particular put in some remarkably fast sectionals at the business end.
Only three horses in all races at Sandown this year have broken 40.0s from three out (the Pond Fence), and Altior was fastest of them at 39.23s. He may have beaten the smart Charbel by “only” six lengths, but those sectionals have him value for at least 10.
Perhaps the best way to illustrate just how fast Altior finished is to show some one-on-one comparisons with other Sandown 2m chases in the last 12 months run in similar overall times, including some races mentioned already.

It can be seen that while this year’s Henry VIII was much slower to halfway, and only around average in time from there to three out, it was fastest from the Pond Fence to the last and much the fastest from the last fence to the line.
Altior completed the run-in roughly 5 lengths quicker than Ar Mad had in the same race (when forging away from his rivals) 12 months earlier, roughly 10 lengths quicker than Un de Sceaux did later on the same card, and roughly 9 lengths quicker than Sprinter Sacre had done when beating Un de Sceaux by 15 lengths in his swansong on a sounder surface in April.
That impression of a turbo-charged finish from Altior was not a trick of the eye!
However, sectional analysis involves trading off the speeds shown in sections of a race against the times (and timefigures) achieved overall. That blistering finish from Altior does not automatically identify him as a superstar, though it does identify him as significantly better than a cursory look at his overall time might suggest.
A consideration of all winners on Sandown’s Saturday card puts things further into context.

Those figures further identify the wins of Arctic Gold and Rocky Creek as having been meritorious from an overall and sectional timing point of view.
There are no real hidden nuggets in the Sandown sectionals (which are available in full in Timeform’s Sectional Archive), other than that Altior figure. But, where Altior is concerned, it should also be pointed out that he had run very fast overall – and much faster from obstacle to obstacle than a useful handicapper later on the card – when making his debut at Kempton.
All the signs are that Altior will be at least as good over fences as he was over hurdles, and that means very good indeed.

[cwright23]

Yeah I think it's got to the stage now lads where we no for sure altoir is a very good horse and he is the most likely winner, but all long as MIN and identity thief turn up I think 6/4 will be available on the day so why take the risk now.. I'd much rather find one at bigger odds that has a decent chance in its own right that is defo going here and back that each way or in the without market.. You can get 2/1 IT to place or 7/4 altior to win.. I know what I'd rather back..

[Kevloaf]

That is an interesting article, thanks for posting it in here. I sometimes miss the timeform ones and forget to go back.

I think cwright is right regarding the price now too.

I'd love to see Noel keep the ride ... No offense to NDB of course, but if this was a few years ago and Barry was on board, I'd be topping up my ante post with a huge bet on the day... having an "amateur" on board isn't ideal for what is going to be a massive moment in my festival in terms of £££

[Faugheen_Machine]

Identity Thief and Min are set to clash on boxing day. Who will be favourite between the two?

[Kevloaf]

Identity Thief and Min are set to clash on boxing day. Who will be favourite between the two?

100% Min will be fav. Shorter for the Arkle and the connections alone will see to that.

Whether he should be or not is a different question, although my opinion would wield the same answer. Min

[jono]

Yeah no doubt Min will be favourite for the race - i'd say around 7/4F at best.

Not the happiest of races for Ricci and Mullins though with Vautour and Champagne Fever both beat when odds on over the last few years though Douvan did win last year.

[Kevloaf]

Might depend on where Douvan/Faugheen are .... if Ruby is at Kempton for the Christmas Hurdle (I think that is the one that falls on the same day?) then he might be there again for that? Could affect the price of Min I suppose.

I remember it well, Douvan was ridden by Patrick, after Ruby was elsewhere and Paul (look at me, on first name terms with all these jockeys) got injured earlier that day. I'd put more than I should have on that race just and was nervy when Patrick was jocked up haha. That is the race he broke Ttebbob too isn't it?

[billymag]

Thought it was interesting to listen to Ed Chamberlin on the Final Furlong podcast, from 35.00 mins till 36.40 mins, if you get chance its worth a listen, Ed has been to Mullins yard. Im even more confident that Min has had a wind op! Well as confident as you can be when your guessing!!!

[jono]

Yet to listen to the pod but i'll keep an eye on that part. I remember you raising the wind op point and also questioning why they would hide the fact, still doesn't make sense to not say (but this is the Mullins yard!) but I do think you are on to something with that theory. I haven't heard anyone else raise it but after you did I watched the Supreme back and it's very plausible - much more than him picking up an injury for me

[billymag]

The only reason why i can think why they might of kept it quiet is if they were all Min and they wanted to get there money back in the race, if everyone lays it in running happy days, horse travels well till effort by which time everyone has money back. Its only a theory and as i say im guessing, trying to join up those pesky dots!!!!

[Kevloaf]

Ed said, "I think we've seen the proof" after his first run this season? ..... to me, that wasn't a different horse, that was the same good horse that he was over hurdles who has retained that ability for a fence. He was entitled to win as he did... which isn't a negative of course.

Got to weigh in again and say that I think you are wanting to see something that isn't there .... I'll buy you a beer to apologise if you get proven right of course

[billymag]

It was the bit before Kev.
ED said after he was asked about info he has picked up from his stable visits around the industry and in particular spent a lot of time at Willies.
"I Just sense Min might be a bit different this season"
Emmet continued
"Does this mean youve heard similar stories to me that perhaps Min is going to be a different horse this season"

Then Ed said the bit above that youve quoted.

Owner saying on ATR that theyve tinkered with some things since the Supreme, and the visual impression of travelling better than anything and then letting Altior bound away up the hill. It might be that Altior has more pace than Min and is better, but i think there is enough evidence from what ive heard to factor in to my betting that Min could of had a breathing OP.

Im pretty confident that theres something in this and ive bet accordingly Min to turn the form round coz he can breath going up the Chelt hill this time!!!! lol

[Kevloaf]

Emmett has definitely eluded to 'picking up an injury in the supreme' from a good source, nothing to do with the wind.

Id also say that Ruby makes absolutely every horse in any race look to be travelling the best! NDB did start pushing before Ruby did, but the horse found for it. I don't think you can definitevly say Min didn't get up the hill ... he still finished second.

... if I go along with your theory, and we assume min has improved for a wind op ... what rating would he have? Considering Altior? If you think he was a better horse then he would be higher rated than douvan .... and you must see where that falls down?

I absolutely am not saying altior is "a good thing" in a rematch ... but using a wind op isn't going to cut it without the evidence to back it up ...
I think if the wind op is the only reason you can see a reversal you'd be mad to back min. .... at this stage.


(Hope you know this is meant in good heart!)