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The vibes of going down the Stayers look enhanced but i'm not sure he enhanced his chances in either race really.
Trying to find a post I made about people going over the top after his [Jezki] return ... can't see it so must have been in the CH thread, but I think he is now incredibly unlikely to go for that race. The money came for him in the stayers and you'd respect that befcause of connections.
I don't think he enhanced his claims, but 10/1 with Nichols Canyon and VVM unlikely to run shorter than him... likely to still go off 2nd fav and I'd back him each way at this price!
Does anyone think Old Guard may be good place value (currently 50/1 NRNB)? First run over 3m resulted in finishing well behind red hot favourite for this race UNWIMH, but he was best of the rest who had to give weight away to the majority of the field.
He has Cheltenham form over 2m, but in the hottest races it generally reads that he gets 'outpaced'. He stayed on really well in the Lanzarote giving huge amounts of weight away to the whole field.
Most of his best form is on Good - Good/Soft as opposed to the soft ground he encountered LTO, this will work in his favour if the expected Good ground appears.
"He ran well behind Modus in the Lanzarote off top weight, stayed on really strongly over two miles five, so we just thought the Coral Cup would be an absolute great race to run in. He’ll hopefully not be top weight."
"He ran well behind Modus in the Lanzarote off top weight, stayed on really strongly over two miles five, so we just thought the Coral Cup would be an absolute great race to run in. He’ll hopefully not be top weight."
Just a quick note on Jezki - i've seen the comparison with Jezki to Solwhit stepping up in trip and winning in 2013.
Watching the (Solwhit) race back they went off at a crawl and the pace never really quickened until the very end. The time of that race was 6m 24sec on Good to Soft (Good in places). Compare that to the 3 year that followed:
2014: 5m 49s Good (Good to Soft in places) 2015: 5m 41s Good 2016: 5m 42s Good (Good to Soft in places)
Now I know there's a lot of factors in comparing times and the difference in ground comes into play but just watching back the renewals and the pace difference, the 2013 renewal was setup perfectly for a horse like Solwhit. A slow steady gallop didn't stretch his stamina and he was then able to use his speed to outpace them at the finish.
Jezki won't get that with a rejuvenated Cole Harden in the field front running from the off. He'll make this a very thorough stamina test from the front that will play to UNWIMH's strengths and will really require Jezki stamina limits to be put to the test which I don't think will be ideal for him.
His class might get him close but I just cannot see him beating the fav
Agree that much of this will be about pace and ground for Jezki.
He'd want it bouncing and he wouldn't want it to be end to end. Could see him cantering down the hill before being outstayed. But if they make the error of going off slow, he will be bang there
I think it's a waste of a novice year personally but the AB looks hot and if you KNOW wholestone has you covered, better to aim to place in this than the AB?
"Will Thistlecrack’s half-brother West Approach run in the Stayers’ Hurdle?
Steve Allen
John and Heather Snook are very keen on it, so it’s very likely. All they worry about is the odds-on favourite Unowhatimeanharry – the rest of the field they feel he’s shown enough form to beat, so it looks a perfectly sensible choice. For me it’s a sentimental thing, with Thistlecrack having won it last year, and that’s they way we’re leaning at the moment, but it could change tomorrow if something happens to a couple of the top horses for the Albert Bartlett. He could still switch but the Stayers’ is the most likely option."
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