2017 County Hurdle

[JackieMoon33]

Its a big trend that nothing over 139 wins.

With a bottom weight of 138 last year that could be a vulnerable trend in coming years....

[JackieMoon33]

Based on the trends of last 11 yrs we can bring that list down to:

William H Bonney (But might not get in off 134)
De Name Escapes Me ( Same as above rated 134)
Wait For Me ( OR 135)
Apasianada ( OR 134)
Vosne Romanee (139)
Chesterfield (131)

Hargam not included for stats as OR is 140 but still has a shot

You're missing a lot of Irish horses who have not had their ratings published yet. The first 3 home in the Coral Hurdle should all be of interest if they get the necessary inflation.

Ice Cold Soul - 7yo - 130 rating
Tudor City - 5yo - 128 rating
Golden Spear - 6yo - 127 rating

If Tudor City gets in, he's my pick for sure.

[Bob c]

Appasionado got done by skeltons charming zen, so where does he come in to this, he's got entries in the supreme and Neptune @ 25 and 33 ???

[Gava]

Interesting Charbel got an entry in this? No chance with Altior in Arkle, might go for JLT (already beaten Top Notch this year), could go back Hurdling?

Beat Brain Power 11L last year at Musselburgh. 2.5 lengths behind Yanworth at Ascot, and 4 lengths behind Buveir Dair in Supreme last year.

20/1 looks too big.

[Old Vic]

Interesting Charbel got an entry in this? No chance with Altior in Arkle, might go for JLT (already beaten Top Notch this year), could go back Hurdling?

Beat Brain Power 11L last year at Musselburgh. 2.5 lengths behind Yanworth at Ascot, and 4 lengths behind Buveir Dair in Supreme last year.

20/1 looks too big.

On those bits of form of interest but bizarre he isn't in grand annual

[Istabraq]

On those bits of form of interest but bizarre he isn't in grand annual

They probably have Charbel down as a decent horse, one who can compete in graded company, the Grand Annual tends to be a race for 2m handicappers who are never anything other than handicappers, I know Edredon Bleu went on to better things but that was a while ago now, can't think of any recent winners who imrpoved after which is surprising given the record of young/novices in the race...

[Jonnymac05]

You're missing a lot of Irish horses who have not had their ratings published yet. The first 3 home in the Coral Hurdle should all be of interest if they get the necessary inflation.

Ice Cold Soul - 7yo - 130 rating
Tudor City - 5yo - 128 rating
Golden Spear - 6yo - 127 rating

If Tudor City gets in, he's my pick for sure.

Absolutely waiting on those ratings but of the ones that have a mark that is the shortlist on the main trends

[Kevloaf]

With a bottom weight of 138 last year that could be a vulnerable trend in coming years....

One of the dangers of using trends without looking at the wider picture! Well highlighted.

[mayo]

I suppose the main thing to do is look at lower weighted horses

[Jonnymac05]

Not much we can really do until weights come out and we see the cutoff rating. if it stays at 138? Have a feeling it might jump to 140

[Istabraq]

Handicaps have become so congested I give the ratings/weight trends little consideration these days, I focus far more on the profile of a horse (age, course form, class, days rested etc)...

[JackieMoon33]

I suppose the main thing to do is look at lower weighted horses

That would be my preferred angle too

[Jonnymac05]

Spent the last hour looking at the entries with no mark against their irish ratings and quite a lot are going to need the full Phil Smith treatment to stand a chance to get in, like more than 6/7 lbs raises from Phil.

[Kevloaf]

Spent the last hour looking at the entries with no mark against their irish ratings and quite a lot are going to need the full Phil Smith treatment to stand a chance to get in, like more than 6/7 lbs raises from Phil.

Anything in particular you are hoping gets that treatment ?

[Kevloaf]

That would be my preferred angle too

Jackie - how do you approach the handicaps. Do you back a few? Strict set of rules? Follow trends? Ones from the tracker? Market vibes? Unlucky horses? Laid out horses? Certain connections?

You have posted much more in the handicap thread in particular so I'm assuming the handicaps are your cup of tea? ..I'd be interested to know how you approach them if that is the case... I am sure I'm not alone