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2017 County Hurdle

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  • 2017 County Hurdle

    as a bit of interest on the other thread ..

    2015 result

    Pos Dist Horse Trainer Age Weight Jockey SP
    1st 16 Wicklow Brave W P Mullins 6 11-4 P Townend 25/1
    Held up in rear division, smooth headway on outside after 3 out, close up next, came towards stands side rail and led before last, ridden clear flat, stayed on strongly
    2nd 8 25 Sort It Out (IRE) E P Harty 6 11-0 N P Madden 17/2
    In touch, lost place 2 out, soon outpaced, headway under pressure before last, ridden and kept on flat, went 2nd final 110 yards, no impression with winner opened 10/1 touched 9/1 £20000-£2000
    3rd 1¼ 21 Quick Jack (IRE) A J Martin 6 11-2 S A Shortall (5) 8/1
    Held up in touch, tracked leaders 2 out, ridden to chase winner approaching last, kept on same pace, no chance with winner flat, lost 2nd final 110 yards opened 7/1 £14000-£2000
    4th 1½ 18 Max Dynamite (FR) W P Mullins 5 11-3 R Walsh 14/1
    Held up in rear division, still plenty to do 2 out, headway under pressure approaching last, ridden and kept on flat, went 4th near finish, never nearer
    5th ½ 4 Analifet (FR) W P Mullins 5 11-9 h D J Mullins (5) 33/1
    Held up rear division, headway 2 out, effort and every chance on inside between last 2, disputed 2nd at last, ridden and one pace when hung left flat, no impression when lost 4th near finish
    6th 1 3 Sempre Medici (FR) W P Mullins 5 11-10 D E Mullins 33/1
    Mid-division, headway after 3 out, driven to chase leaders after next, disputed 4th last, ridden and one pace flat opened 25/1
    7th 1½ 17 Baltimore Rock (IRE) D Pipe 6 11-4 t1 T Scudamore 12/1
    Mid-division on inside, switched right after 3 out, one pace next, stayd on to chase clear leaders from last, never on terms
    8th 1¼ 2 Cheltenian (FR) P J Hobbs 9 11-12 h R Johnson 12/1
    Tracked leaders, driven and effort after 2 out, one pace before last, soon no extra, weakened flat opened 14/1
    9th 3¼ 8 The Game Changer (IRE) G Elliott 6 11-7 B J Cooper 8/1
    Mid-division, not fluent 2nd, tracked leaders on inside 2 out, ridden and one pace before last, soon weakened opened 10/1 £24000-£2000 £20000-£2000
    10th 1 9 Violet Dancer G L Moore 5 11-7 p J E Moore 20/1
    With leader, led after 1st, driven and headed before last, soon weakened
    11th 1¾ 15 Aso (FR) Miss V Williams 5 11-4 Aidan Coleman 33/1
    Mid-division on outside, headway and in touch 2 out, driven and lost place before last, soon weakened
    12th 4 23 Dormello Mo (FR) P F Nicholls 5 11-1 t Sam Twiston-Davies 25/1
    Towards rear, outpaced, some late headway into mid-division under pressure when hampered last, never a threat
    13th ¾ 19 Princely Conn (IRE) T Mullins 6 11-3 A P McCoy 7/1f
    Not fluent 1st, mid-division, chased leaders on outside 2 out, one pace when short of room on stands side rail before last, soon weakened opened 8/1 £33000-£3000 £16000-£2000 £5000-£600(x4) £3900-£520
    14th 1¾ 20 Waxies Dargle N Meade 6 11-2 P Carberry 10/1
    Towards rear, outpaced 2 out, never near leaders opened 14/1 £60000-£5000
    15th 1 26 Forced Family Fun J J Quinn 5 11-0 D C Costello 33/1
    Chased leaders to 3rd, soon lost place and behind, no danger after opened 40/1
    16th ½ 7 Modem Mrs J Harrington 5 11-7 p1 R M Power 20/1
    Tracked leaders, close up and every chance 2 out, soon driven, weakened between last 2, beaten when hampered last
    17th nk 10 Ballyglasheen (IRE) Evan Williams 5 11-7 p1 Paul Moloney 50/1
    Tracked leaders, lost place when short of room after 3 out, soon behind
    18th 6 5 Rich Coast N Meade 7 11-7 h D N Russell 25/1
    In touch on outside, lost place after 2 out, weakened and eased before last
    19th ½ 22 Ebony Express Dr R D P Newland 6 11-2 W Kennedy 16/1
    Tracked leaders to 2 out, soon weakened
    20th 3 1 Hawk High (IRE) T D Easterby 5 11-12 p B Hughes 25/1
    Chased leaders to 4th, mid-division, outpaced after 3 out, behind from next
    PU 11 Lightening Rod M W Easterby 10 11-6 Harry Bannister (5) 66/1
    Always in rear, struggling when hit 3 out, tailed off when puled up before last
    PU 6 Orgilgo Bay (IRE) J C McConnell 5 11-7 M J Bolger (3) 33/1
    Led to after 1st, with leader, lost place approaching 2 out, soon weakened, tailed off when pulled up before last
    F 14 Lucky Bridle (IRE) W P Mullins 6 11-5 h D J Casey 33/1
    Held up in rear division, no impression when fell heavily 2 out
    F 12 Roman Flight (IRE) David Dennis 7 11-6 v N D Fehily 50/1
    Mid-division, chased leaders 2 out, one pace between last 2, disputed 4th and no impression when fell last
    NR 13 Commissioned (IRE) J P Ferguson 5 11-6 B J Geraghty
    NR 24 Minella Present (IRE) N P Mulholland 6 11-1 P J Brennan

    so updated gault


    AGE 8 yr olds and above. 4 winners since ‘91 and only 5 since 1959 (2012 Alderwood won from 4 triers, '07 Pedrobob). 8 yr olds Pedrobob and '02 Rooster Booster last runs were placed in a Totesport Trophy/Betfair Hurdle. Alderwood was still a novice. 2014 10 of the 28 that ran were aged 8 or older, best finisher Alaivan in 9th. 2103 - Manyriverstocross 25s 3rd as a 8 yr old and had been previously placed in a Betfair. Arcalis placed in 2010 as a 10 year old and a previous Festival winner. 9 yr old winner Barna Boy ’97 placed in ‘96 Coral Cup.

    5 yr olds have won 9 of the last 18 from about 22% of total runners. Not last year 11/28 aged 6 - first 3 horses aged 6, 2014 7 qualifiers from 28 finished 1-2-4-5-6. 2013 5 ran, best Shadow Catcher in 4th. 2012 8 from 26, finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th. In 2011 Final Approach was one of 6 five yr olds from 26 runners. No luck 2010 6 from 28 best Secret Dancer in 7th. '09 American Trilogy strolled home, 5 from 28. '08 Silver Jaro won, 4 qualifiers from 22 runners.

    7 winning novices since '93 including the 3 of last 4 (Lac Fontana and Alderwood at 139. Ted Veale 134 and the rest not rated above 135. Sn

    WEIGHT Entire field over 11 st last year.Prior to Wicklow Brave only 4 of previous 18 carried over 11st to victory. Blowing Wind, Spirit Leader and Rooster Booster all started 10/1 or under. Blowing Wind came straight from Sandown's Imperial Cuy. The other two were 1st and 2nd in a Tote Gold Trophy. Alderwood 20s 11st 1 lb was in a compressed handicap where bottom weight had 10st 8lbs.

    No winner has carried over 11st 8lbs since 1960. Diakali impressive in 4th 2014 with 11st 12lb. Only the second horse to be placed with over 11st 8 lbs since 1979. (Backed it up when beaten on the line by The New One in the Aintree Hurdle)

    16 from last 17 rated between 128 and 144. (Sporazene 151, eleven winners in the 130s).

    Difficult to win from more than 1lb out of the handicap. Lots have tried and failed to do so since Prince of Bermuda last achieved this feat in 1980. (none out of the handicap last seven years, ’07, 8 qualifiers, none placed).

    Likely to be compressed fro now on ?

    PRICE Wicklow Brave 25s , Lac was 11s. (Some got bigger). Ted Veale 10s, Final Approach was 12/1. Used to not cross the 16/1 barrier. However 2012 Alderwood, 20s, '08 Silver Jaro 33s, American Trilogy and Thousand Stars also both at 20s. Two favs and two joint favs in the last 16.

    [Since '94 only Ted Veale, Master Tern and Silver Jaro have won this having been beaten favourite last time out. Best paying race in the Festival this century for backing beaten favs. Two from 29 have won - profit £33 for £1 stake. Silver Jaro at 50s profited from the Pyscho ride? (Mischief now, remember Solwit, Bellvano) ]

    Irish trained winners - First 6 in 2015. 2014 2nd, 4th and 5th from 7 runners. Ted Veale from Tennis Cap (from 9 runners), Alderwood 2012 (8 runners), Final Approach 2011 (5 runners), Thousand Stars 2010 (6 runners), Silver Jaro '08 won from Psycho (7 runners), Pedrobob '07. Spirit Leader ’03 was first Irish trained winner since ’76. Also placed 2012 Sailors Warn and Plan A, ’06 Adamant Approach. ’03 and ’04 Balapour. In '09, 7 tried best was Kandari in 5th. 6 winners in the last eight. Definitely a trend. Any wonder the numbers going across are increasing. Don't hear much crying these days about being badly handicapped. W Mullins becoming more and more involved in the finish of this.

    Tony Mullins trained both Alderwood and Pedrobob. Pedrobob only a second season hurdler as an eight year old.
    Paul Nicholls most successful trainer ever in this with 4 wins in the last 12. ’04 Sporazene, ’06 Desert Quest, '09 American Trilogy and Lac Fontana. Also ’06 Pirate Flagship 4th ’07 Ouninpohja 2nd. '08 Imsingingtheblues, last of 22 coming around the corner, finished 7th. Tito Bustillo 7/1 fav, hampered unplaced 2010. No runner 2011. 2012 Edgardo Sol, 2nd at 25/1, also finished 6th in 2013. And Ruby is the most successful jockey ever with 4 wins. His finish on Final Approach lives long in the memory. (Question - Which Nicholls winner did he not ride? Answer below)

    22 of last 30 in first 4 on previous outing (Not '12, '10 or '09).

    BLINKERS etc One blinkered winner in last 18 (American Trilogy, his second run in blinkers). 9/26 in 2015 none placed. A massive 12 from 28 wore headgear in 2014 (wonder if that's a record) best finishers Arctic Fire and Diakali both in hoods. 7 failed to win in 2013.
    All last 16 had run in a handicap. 4 of last 11 ran 'well' in the Totesport Trophy. Lac Fontana won the Cl2 Handicap which finishes the card on Trials day. Flaxen Flare, 5th here, had been 2nd in the Boylesports. Ted Veale was 3rd in the Boylesports in 2013. Final Approach won Boylesports. Silver Jaro had been 3rd in it, two races before this. Thousand Stars unplaced in Boylesports in his year. In this years Boylesports Katie T beat Modem, Ted Veale and Savello.

    COURSE WINNERS - Had to happen sometime. Lac Fontana became only the second horse after Master Tern (both second season novices) to win this as previous course winners since at least 1991. Both had won the same course handicap hurdle in January. Lightentertainment is a second season novice.

    11 from the last 14 winners had no course placed form. 15 from last 17 no previous Festival form.

    `
    Imperial Cup (weekend before). Wicklow Brave ran it it last year - Never travelled and soon well in rear, lost touch after 2nd, tailed off 3 out, soon pulled up opened 12/1

    5 winners of that event since 1990 ran in the County. Moody Man and Blowing Wind won under a big weight and Carlito Brigante finished second. Floyd also did the double in 1985. Last two Pipe trained Imperial winners Gaspara and Ashkazar took the easier route with the 4 yr old handicap. '09 Dave's Dream 7/2 fav here and unplaced. '11 Alarazi unplaced favourite here. 2012 Paintball didn't come. 2013 First Avenue PU in Conditionals. Last year Baltimore Rock went to Aintree instead.


    19 from last 21 had ran at least 4 times that season (not Lac Fontana, 3 runs, Final Approach just the two). 27 of the last 28 winners all had at least 3 previous runs that season (Final Approach). 15 of the last 20 had been out at least 5 times. I think the phrase remains 'battle hardened'

    All but 3 of last 20 between 5 and 16 total runs over hurdles. (Ted Veale and American T only 4).

    13 from last 18 ran in the last 35 days (not those that came direct from the Boylesports or Trials day). 3 of the last 17 won carrying a penalty. (from small numbers)

    WINNING CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS - In the last 24 only Katie Walsh (3) 2010, Jimmy Moffatt (3) on a famous win with Home Counties 1995, David Bridgewater (7) Winnie The Witch 1991. (The latter two winning for their fathers). 4 last year, all unplaced. 8 tried in 2013 best H Derham 6th on Edgardo Sol, 3 tried in 2012, H Derham best again in 2nd. 11 in total tried over 2010 and 2011.

    Katie had already won the 4 miler that week on Poker de Sivola, Harry Derham had won a G3 Greatwood Hurdle on Brampour. Knew their job.
    Last edited by Old Vic; 11 February 2017, 08:09 AM.

  • #2
    Thanks Mayo, I hadn't realised the Irish had the first 6 home, they always seem to think the handicapper is being unfair on them when the weights are announced too ?
    Can't imagine the 'capper was too thrilled about the result and will look to ensure isn't repeated, something to note maybe....

    Comment


    • #3
      2016 Result

      Pos Dist Horse Trainer Age Weight Jockey SP
      1st 25 Superb Story (IRE) D Skelton 5 10-12 Harry Skelton 8/1
      Held up mid-division, headway after 2 out (usual 3 out), tracked leaders last (usual 2 out), ridden to lead approaching omitted last, soon clear, stayed on well
      2nd 2½ 9 Fethard Player (IRE) W F Treacy 9 11-5 ht D J Mullins (3) 33/1
      Tracked leaders, challenged last (usual 2 out), every chance approaching omitted last, soon ridden, kept on same pace, no impression with winner on extended flat
      3rd 3½ 15 Sternrubin (GER) P J Hobbs 5 11-2 h T J O'Brien 33/1
      Pressed leader, led narrowly before last (usual 2 out), ridden and headed approaching omitted last,soon no impression with front pair, held on under pressure for 3rd flat
      4th hd 23 Wait For Me (FR) P J Hobbs 6 10-13 h R Johnson 7/1j
      Held up towards rear, headway before last (usual 2 out), soon chased leaders, stayed on to dispute 3rd from after omtted last, no impression opened 11/1
      5th nk 16 Starchitect (IRE) D Pipe 5 11-1 bt T Scudamore 10/1
      In touch, driven after last (usual 2 out), headway under pressure before omitted last, ridden and stayed pressing for places flat, no impression opened 11/1
      6th 3¼ 20 Francis Of Assisi (IRE) J P Ferguson 6 11-0 Mr Alex Ferguson (7) 40/1
      Chased leaders, ridden after last (usual 2 out), kept on same pace, no impression opened 50/1
      7th ¾ 24 Kayf Blanco G McPherson 7 10-12 Kielan Woods 50/1
      Mid-division, driven after last (usual 2 out), ridden and kept on under pressure on extended flat, never reached leaders opened 40/1
      8th 1 14 Ivan Grozny (FR) W P Mullins 6 11-3 h P Townend 40/1
      Towards rear, outpaced on outside last (usual 2 out), headway under pressure approaching omitted last, ridden and kept on flat, never nearer
      9th s.h 13 Hawk High (IRE) T D Easterby 6 11-3 b1 B Hughes 25/1
      Soon towards rear, outpaced before last (usual 2 out), soon ridden, headway under pressure bypassing omitted last, stayed on flat, not reach leaders
      10th s.h 19 Cardinal Walter (IRE) N J Henderson 7 11-0 h A Tinkler 22/1
      Held up behind, headway on outside last (usual 2 out), soon ridden, kept on same pace, never on terms opened 20/1
      11th nk 18 Draco A P O'Brien 7 11-0 t M P Walsh 33/1
      Chased leaders to 3rd, soon behind, headway on inside last (2usual 2 out), soon outpaced, never reached leaders opened 40/1
      12th ¾ 7 All Yours (FR) P F Nicholls 5 11-7 ht Sam Twiston-Davies 16/1
      Held up mid-division, hampered 2nd, tracked leaders last (usual 2 out), soon ridden and one pace, no impression after
      13th ¾ 4 Devilment J P Ferguson 5 11-9 Aidan Coleman 33/1
      In touch, driven to chase leaders after last (usual 2 out), soon ridden and one pace, weakened flat
      14th 1½ 17 Mad Jack Mytton (IRE) Jonjo O'Neill 6 11-0 R P McLernon 28/1
      Mid-division, slightly hampered 2nd, driven after last (usual 2 out), kept on same pace, never troubled leaders opened 25/1
      15th 2 1 Cheltenian (FR) P J Hobbs 10 11-12 h Conor Smith (7) 40/1
      Mid-division on outside, headway and in touch 3rd, outpaced last (usual 2 out), soon lost place
      16th 2½ 10 Some Plan (IRE) P F Nicholls 8 11-5 ht Harry Cobden (5) 12/1
      Mid-division, ridden after last (usual 2 out), never near leaders opened 16/1
      17th 4 21 John Constable (IRE) Evan Williams 5 10-13 Paul Moloney 14/1
      Towards rear, outpaced from last (usual 2 out) opened 12/1
      18th 1½ 2 Zamdy Man Miss V Williams 7 11-10 Charlie Deutsch (5) 66/1
      Took keen hold, led to after 1st, tracked front pair, not fluent 3rd, ridden and lost place after last (usual 2 out), soon weakened
      19th 1¾ 11 Bentelimar (IRE) J R Barry 7 11-5 B T O'Connell 40/1
      Raced keenly, tracked leaders, lost place after 2 out (usual 3 out), soon outpaced and behind
      20th 6 12 Sizing Tennessee (IRE) H de Bromhead 8 11-3 J J Burke 66/1
      Held up in touch, lost place after 2 out (usual 3 out), soon behind
      21st 6 5 Henry Higgins (IRE) C O'Brien 6 11-7 R M Power 20/1
      Always behind
      22nd 7 8 Blue Hell (FR) A Fleming 6 11-6 t A P Heskin 8/1
      Always towards rear opened 10/1
      23rd 19 22 Modus P F Nicholls 6 10-13 h Nick Scholfield 14/1
      Always behind, lost touch 5th, tailed off
      PU 6 Great Field (FR) W P Mullins 5 11-7 B J Geraghty 7/1j
      Took keen hold, led after 1st, headed approaching last (usual 2 out), soon weakened, pulled up before omitted last
      F 3 Dicosimo (FR) W P Mullins 5 11-10 h R Walsh 16/1
      Held up towards rear, headway into mid-division when fell 4th
      UR 26 Montbazon (FR) A King 9 10-12 Wayne Hutchinson 25/1
      In touch when blundered and unseated rider 2nd

      Comment


      • #4
        So ...

        AGE 8 yr olds and above. 4 winners since ‘91 and only 5 since 1959 (2012 Alderwood won from 4 triers, '07 Pedrobob). 8 yr olds Pedrobob and '02 Rooster Booster last runs were placed in a Totesport Trophy/Betfair Hurdle. Alderwood was still a novice. 2014 10 of the 28 that ran were aged 8 or older, best finisher Alaivan in 9th. 2103 - Manyriverstocross 25s 3rd as a 8 yr old and had been previously placed in a Betfair. Arcalis placed in 2010 as a 10 year old and a previous Festival winner. 9 yr old winner Barna Boy ’97 placed in ‘96 Coral Cup.

        5 yr olds have won 10 of the last 19 from about 22% of total runners. Last year 5 year olds 1-3 and5 . Not 2015 11/28 aged 6 - first 3 horses aged 6, 2014 7 qualifiers from 28 finished 1-2-4-5-6. 2013 5 ran, best Shadow Catcher in 4th. 2012 8 from 26, finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th. In 2011 Final Approach was one of 6 five yr olds from 26 runners. No luck 2010 6 from 28 best Secret Dancer in 7th. '09 American Trilogy strolled home, 5 from 28. '08 Silver Jaro won, 4 qualifiers from 22 runners.

        7 winning novices since '93 including the 3 of last 5 (Lac Fontana and Alderwood at 139. Ted Veale 134 and the rest not rated above 135. Superb Story had won a juvenile hurdle.

        WEIGHT Entire field over 10 12 last year and 11 st 2016 .Prior to Wicklow Brave in 2015 only 4 of previous 18 carried over 11st to victory. Blowing Wind, Spirit Leader and Rooster Booster all started 10/1 or under. Blowing Wind came straight from Sandown's Imperial Cuy. The other two were 1st and 2nd in a Tote Gold Trophy. Alderwood 20s 11st 1 lb was in a compressed handicap where bottom weight had 10st 8lbs.

        No winner has carried over 11st 8lbs since 1960. Diakali impressive in 4th 2014 with 11st 12lb. Only the second horse to be placed with over 11st 8 lbs since 1979. (Backed it up when beaten on the line by The New One in the Aintree Hurdle)

        17 from last 18 rated between 128 and 144. (Sporazene 151, eleven winners in the 130s).

        Difficult to win from more than 1lb out of the handicap. Lots have tried and failed to do so since Prince of Bermuda last achieved this feat in 1980. (none out of the handicap last seven years, ’07, 8 qualifiers, none placed).

        Likely to be compressed fro now on ?

        PRICE Superb Story 8s Wicklow Brave 25s , Lac was 11s. (Some got bigger). Ted Veale 10s, Final Approach was 12/1. Used to not cross the 16/1 barrier. However 2012 Alderwood, 20s, '08 Silver Jaro 33s, American Trilogy and Thousand Stars also both at 20s. Two favs and two joint favs in the last 16.

        [Since '94 only Ted Veale, Master Tern and Silver Jaro have won this having been beaten favourite last time out. Best paying race in the Festival this century for backing beaten favs. Two from 29 have won - profit £33 for £1 stake. Silver Jaro at 50s profited from the Pyscho ride? (Mischief now, remember Solwit, Bellvano) ]

        Irish trained winners - 2nd in 2016. First 6 in 2015. 2014 2nd, 4th and 5th from 7 runners. Ted Veale from Tennis Cap (from 9 runners), Alderwood 2012 (8 runners), Final Approach 2011 (5 runners), Thousand Stars 2010 (6 runners), Silver Jaro '08 won from Psycho (7 runners), Pedrobob '07. Spirit Leader ’03 was first Irish trained winner since ’76. Also placed 2012 Sailors Warn and Plan A, ’06 Adamant Approach. ’03 and ’04 Balapour. In '09, 7 tried best was Kandari in 5th. 6 winners in the last eight. Definitely a trend. Any wonder the numbers going across are increasing. Don't hear much crying these days about being badly handicapped. W Mullins becoming more and more involved in the finish of this.

        Tony Mullins trained both Alderwood and Pedrobob. Pedrobob only a second season hurdler as an eight year old.
        Paul Nicholls most successful trainer ever in this with 4 wins in the last 12. ’04 Sporazene, ’06 Desert Quest, '09 American Trilogy and Lac Fontana. Also ’06 Pirate Flagship 4th ’07 Ouninpohja 2nd. '08 Imsingingtheblues, last of 22 coming around the corner, finished 7th. Tito Bustillo 7/1 fav, hampered unplaced 2010. No runner 2011. 2012 Edgardo Sol, 2nd at 25/1, also finished 6th in 2013. And Ruby is the most successful jockey ever with 4 wins. His finish on Final Approach lives long in the memory. (Question - Which Nicholls winner did he not ride? Answer below)

        22 of last 30 in first 4 on previous outing (Not '12, '10 or '09).

        BLINKERS etc One blinkered winner in last 18 (American Trilogy, his second run in blinkers). 9/26 in 2015 none placed. A massive 12 from 28 wore headgear in 2014 (wonder if that's a record) best finishers Arctic Fire and Diakali both in hoods. 7 failed to win in 2013.
        All last 16 had run in a handicap. 4 of last 11 ran 'well' in the Totesport Trophy. Lac Fontana won the Cl2 Handicap which finishes the card on Trials day. Flaxen Flare, 5th here, had been 2nd in the Boylesports. Ted Veale was 3rd in the Boylesports in 2013. Final Approach won Boylesports. Silver Jaro had been 3rd in it, two races before this. Thousand Stars unplaced in Boylesports in his year. In this years Boylesports Katie T beat Modem, Ted Veale and Savello.

        COURSE WINNERS - Had to happen sometime. Lac Fontana became only the second horse after Master Tern (both second season novices) to win this as previous course winners since at least 1991. Both had won the same course handicap hurdle in January. Lightentertainment is a second season novice.

        11 from the last 14 winners had no course placed form. 15 from last 17 no previous Festival form.

        `
        Imperial Cup (weekend before). Wicklow Brave ran it it last year - Never travelled and soon well in rear, lost touch after 2nd, tailed off 3 out, soon pulled up opened 12/1

        5 winners of that event since 1990 ran in the County. Moody Man and Blowing Wind won under a big weight and Carlito Brigante finished second. Floyd also did the double in 1985. Last two Pipe trained Imperial winners Gaspara and Ashkazar took the easier route with the 4 yr old handicap. '09 Dave's Dream 7/2 fav here and unplaced. '11 Alarazi unplaced favourite here. 2012 Paintball didn't come. 2013 First Avenue PU in Conditionals. Last year Baltimore Rock went to Aintree instead.


        19 from last 21 had ran at least 4 times that season (not Lac Fontana, 3 runs, Final Approach just the two). 27 of the last 28 winners all had at least 3 previous runs that season (Final Approach). 15 of the last 20 had been out at least 5 times. I think the phrase remains 'battle hardened'

        All but 3 of last 20 between 5 and 16 total runs over hurdles. (Ted Veale and American T only 4).

        13 from last 18 ran in the last 35 days (not those that came direct from the Boylesports or Trials day). 3 of the last 17 won carrying a penalty. (from small numbers)

        WINNING CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS - In the last 24 only Katie Walsh (3) 2010, Jimmy Moffatt (3) on a famous win with Home Counties 1995, David Bridgewater (7) Winnie The Witch 1991. (The latter two winning for their fathers). 4 last year, all unplaced. 8 tried in 2013 best H Derham 6th on Edgardo Sol, 3 tried in 2012, H Derham best again in 2nd. 11 in total tried over 2010 and 2011.

        Katie had already won the 4 miler that week on Poker de Sivola, Harry Derham had won a G3 Greatwood Hurdle on Brampour. Knew their job.
        Last edited by mayo; 22 January 2017, 01:24 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Donn


          Tudor City

          Tudor City ran a cracker to finish second in the Coral.ie Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday. Held up in mid-division by Robbie Colgan through the early stages of the race, Tony Martin’s horse was a little keener than ideal in his first-time cheekpieces, and a fairly significant error at the second last flight in the back straight didn’t help.

          Still travelling well on the run to the second last flight around the inside, he wasn’t very good at that obstacle either, he landed hind legs first, but he still travelled really well around the home turn. He was further back than ideal at that point and in traffic, and he still didn’t have a clear run on the approach to the final flight as he picked up. He did get a gap and he jumped that flight well before setting out after Ice Cold Soul, but that rival picked up well in front and wasn’t for catching. Tudor City closed to a half a length in the end, but it never really looked like he was going to catch Noel Meade’s horse.

          This was another fine run from John Breslin’s horse. This was a highly-competitive handicap hurdle, and it was run in a good pace and in a good time. It was probably the best of Tudor City’s life.

          He has not won yet in nine attempts over hurdles, but he has finished second in his last three runs, and he won on the flat at Limerick on his previous run. He continues to progress, he seems to thrive in these big-field handicaps, and he goes well on goodish ground. As such, he could be a horse for the County Hurdle or even, looking further ahead, the Galway Hurdle. He won a handicap on the flat at the Galway Festival in 2015, and he ran a cracker to finish second in a handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last November on his only run at the track.

          The handicapper raised him by 4lb for Sunday’s run, which brings him up to a mark of 128, and that is fine. He will be of interest again in a similar type of race off that mark.

          22nd January 2017

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by mayo View Post
            Donn


            Tudor City

            Tudor City ran a cracker to finish second in the Coral.ie Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday. Held up in mid-division by Robbie Colgan through the early stages of the race, Tony Martin’s horse was a little keener than ideal in his first-time cheekpieces, and a fairly significant error at the second last flight in the back straight didn’t help.

            Still travelling well on the run to the second last flight around the inside, he wasn’t very good at that obstacle either, he landed hind legs first, but he still travelled really well around the home turn. He was further back than ideal at that point and in traffic, and he still didn’t have a clear run on the approach to the final flight as he picked up. He did get a gap and he jumped that flight well before setting out after Ice Cold Soul, but that rival picked up well in front and wasn’t for catching. Tudor City closed to a half a length in the end, but it never really looked like he was going to catch Noel Meade’s horse.

            This was another fine run from John Breslin’s horse. This was a highly-competitive handicap hurdle, and it was run in a good pace and in a good time. It was probably the best of Tudor City’s life.

            He has not won yet in nine attempts over hurdles, but he has finished second in his last three runs, and he won on the flat at Limerick on his previous run. He continues to progress, he seems to thrive in these big-field handicaps, and he goes well on goodish ground. As such, he could be a horse for the County Hurdle or even, looking further ahead, the Galway Hurdle. He won a handicap on the flat at the Galway Festival in 2015, and he ran a cracker to finish second in a handicap hurdle at Cheltenham last November on his only run at the track.

            The handicapper raised him by 4lb for Sunday’s run, which brings him up to a mark of 128, and that is fine. He will be of interest again in a similar type of race off that mark.

            22nd January 2017
            Based on last years bottom weight in the County Hurdle, he'll need his mark inflating by 10lb to ensure a run. This could be one of those times when Phil Smith is conservative in his UK rating.

            Comment


            • #7
              Had a look at the Greatwood - hargam ran on 153 and modus 140. If they met in this hargam 140 modus 156.

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              • #8
                Hargam my only bet in the County so far. Think he will have a huge chance and everything about this race will suit him. He certainly looks a classic JP handicap plot, just hoping the plan hasn't been the Coral Cup and a step up in trip, as Nicky did allude to that in an interview a few week ago.

                But you'd think that was the more likely race for Modus.

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                • #9
                  I've backed Hargam at 33s NRNB for both this and the Coral. Interesting snippets from reports from Hendo today that they think Peace And Co has calmed down and might well end up going for the Imperial and County.

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                  • #10
                    Saw that squiggsy.

                    But surely he will be too high for this?

                    As mayo posted above, '17 from last 18 rated between 128 and 144. (Sporazene 151, eleven winners in the 130s)'.

                    Peace & Co will still be in the mid 150's.

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                    • #11
                      I had Diego Du Charmil on the shortlist but might be a little high at 149

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                      • #12
                        is there a website where i can see all the county entrants with their marks????

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                        • #13
                          Based on the stats of the last 17/18 runners on ratings that would leave a shortlist of:

                          Mick Jazz
                          Consul De Thaix
                          William H Bonney
                          Thats A Wrap
                          Max Dynamite
                          Tommy Silver
                          De Name Escapes Me
                          Presenting Percy
                          Fergall
                          Wait For Me
                          Hint of Mint
                          Pique Sous
                          Air Horse One
                          Apasionado
                          Instant Karma
                          Sternrubin
                          Winter Escapes
                          Vosne Romanee
                          Tigris River
                          Wakea
                          Hargam
                          Princley Conn & Chesterfield

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Jonnymac05 View Post
                            is there a website where i can see all the county entrants with their marks????
                            Not until next week ....

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Narrows it down a bit with some entered in other races that could narrow down again

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