2016 Triumph Hurdle

[MrMcGoldrick]

P & C won as fav last year but I don't think it's very common

[Istabraq]

Detroit City did the same but that was a few years ago, there have also been a few rags win this....

[Old Vic]

Only two winning favourites in last 10 but 8/10 from first 3 in market.

Fate of the Favourite 1 0 2 2 4 4 3 6 4 1
Winner's Market Position 1 2 2 3 3 3 0 2 5 1

<p><iframe width="660" height="400" src="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1-V_NGh0HkmI9AJDn6Kc__m_ja9cQaM_w_sYp-MaBEJk/embed?start=true&amp;loop=true&amp;delayms=15000" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" mozallowfullscreen="true" webkitallowfullscreen="true"></iframe></p>

http://www.fatjockey.com/cheltenham-festival/featured_cheltenham_races.php?2016-Triumph-Hurdle-Stats-130

[Yeehaa]

Only two winning favourites in last 10 but 8/10 from first 3 in market.

Fate of the Favourite 1 0 2 2 4 4 3 6 4 1
Winner's Market Position 1 2 2 3 3 3 0 2 5 1

<p><iframe width="660" height="400" src="https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1-V_NGh0HkmI9AJDn6Kc__m_ja9cQaM_w_sYp-MaBEJk/embed?start=true&loop=true&delayms=15000" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" mozallowfullscreen="true" webkitallowfullscreen="true"></iframe></p>

http://www.fatjockey.com/cheltenham-...rdle-Stats-130

Never a fully formed market at this time of year though. No idea who first 3 in market will be apart from IG.


and from mayos thread


Only 5 from the last 28 Triumph Hurdle favourites have won (Last 4 to do so Peace & Co 2015, Detroit City '06, Katarino '99, Mysilv '94 at 2/1).

[Old Vic]

Favourite out tomorrow

[MrMcGoldrick]

This market could be shaken up today, interesting that Willie is keen to take IG on again but the interesting one could be Jers Girl, 9/1 for this and 20's + for the Triumph, so decent ew for today's race but would collapse for the fez if she won I would think

[MrMcGoldrick]

Well, I thought it could shake up the market, don't think there was a triumph winner in that field, managed to pick the wrong one though

[loveracing]

Tbh, the whole result looked a bit suspect to me. What did the tricast pay?

[gjt7756]

It was a strangely run race and i think if it was run again the placings would be completely different, let's dance and jers girl went a good clip from the front and I thought it was interesting that after let's dance was dropped to 3rd up the run in she rallied back and should have got second almost as if she got a second wind after being forward throughout, would the Cheltenham hill give her more chance to rally on again, or would different tactis be better suited to her, ivanovich gorbatov never traveled and never looked like going anywhere, combined with poor hurdling and a a poor passage lead to a dreadful run and gerraghty was far from hard on him, i think he could easily do better next time if getting into a rhythm, footpad sat out the back and started to pick them off from the halfway point but going into the last turn I thought he was treading water, either way the market has opened right back up so time to get laying a few at the prices!!

[Old Vic]

I think Alan King is happiest man with all that ...

[gjt7756]

To be fair willie just gave a lovely interview with mick fitz on at the races and talked about the horses running today plus those due to run at the festival, he felt Bellshill was beaten to far out to be a true running, weill see if something is amiss in his scope tomorrow and will now spend the next 5 weeks getting him ready for Cheltenham, he advised that footpad goes for the triumph but felt lets dance would learn a lot from the run and come on again so could be a nice lay for the triumph as well

[gjt7756]

So Fixe Le Kap has been made favourite after this weekends results, the one that interests me that is through virtue of form surely Apples jade ahould be shorter than 16/1 having beaten footpad the last time and footpad won on the weekend beating what was supposed to be a field of stong contenders for this triumph, do people think that result wasn't just, I think i'll take a nibble at that price e/w to confirm the form, however the race really is blown open and i liked tommy silvers performance today and I'm interested to see what rating he gets

[Old Vic]

Timeform

Over to hurdling, and the Gain Spring Juvenile Hurdle, which has proven a useful Triumph Hurdle pointer in recent seasons, with the likes of Our Conor and Tiger Roll having used it as successful preparation for juvenile Festival success. The big story of the race was that hot favourite Ivanovich Gorbatov – as short as 9/4 for the Triumph beforehand – failed to find much improvement from his impressive debut victory at Christmas. Less testing conditions could see him to better effect, and although his Triumph claims were dealt a blow here, he remains with potential, now Timeform-rated 142p. The winner Footpad (144p) showed improved form under a change of tactics, and led home a 1-2-3 for Willie Mullins, with Allblak Des Places (141p) in second, and Let’s Dance (134p) – who was interestingly the choice of Ruby Walsh – back in third.

Overall however, the British may just hold the edge in the Triumph at this stage, with Fixe le Kap (146p) and Gibralfaro (144p) heading a strong home challenge which also may consist of Tommy Silver (137p) who got off the mark in a weak-looking renewal of Musselburgh’s Triumph Hurdle Trial on Sunday.

[mayo]

Video

I am inclined to stick with Lets Dance ew at the current prices.

[Old Vic]

Beat me to it with the vid Mayo

I think when the Irish all beat one another an English horse wins.