2016 JLT Novices Chase

[gjt7756]

You look down the list and more than anything there is a lot of potential in there you get down to the 20/1 and higher and there is just horse after horse woth 1,2 or 3 runs but with good form and can easily see the required improvement to place if not even win this race, three musketeers could be one at a price if forgiven his last run

[Jonnymac05]

Gutted for KV was looking forward to seeing him at the festival. But as a Shaneshill backer I'm now wondering if it is worth dipping the toes back in again at 10/1. Couple above are sure to run elsewhere and can only shorten up again. Run LTO just looked a little too sharp for him. Extra 4f should suit better and loves it at Cheltenham placing twice.

[Morning Glory]

Mullins still holds the most best cards with shaneshill and outlander.

Ruby getting plenty of heat on twitter for not pulling KV up. The on the day backer/haters would have been out for him if he did that. Cant win can they.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I don't think anyone is to blame over this. Yes, it's unfortunate that KV has injured himself but that's racing, and that's the dangers of getting involved ante post. He's been really strong on the exchanges since the last race so it's not as if someone has known for a while about this injury and just didn't share the information.

People who backed him straight after his last race will have got 5/1 or 9/2, knowing that he might have done himself an injury with the last fence blunder, again that's the risk/reward of ante post betting.

Bookies who refund on this situation are a joke and part of the problem. Yes, it hurts when we back non runners but we all place our bets knowing the risks. If bookies didn't do refund promos, maybe they be able to offer more competitive markets in the long term.

[Morning Glory]

Morning FM

Agree with you. Just one of those things and there will be more of them.

[Istabraq]

The on the day backer/haters would have been out for him if he did that. Cant win can they.

Yep, people/punters though will always comment from their pocket not their head.

FM - very fair points

[mayo]

Yep. Yeehaa said it the day after the race.

GLV / Vaniteux /Outlander my shortlist.


Vaniteux is pretty weak on machine for both Arkle and JLT

Vaniteux still working to Arkle - Nico

Starting with Vaniteux, he’s come out of his Doncaster race very well.

It was hard to see on the TV screens, but trust me, there was a really strong headwind.

I was really quite impressed with him as he idled at the second fence, which makes me think there is a lot more to come, especially as he beat a top-class horse like Arzal.

The win should put him spot on for the Festival and we’ll keep him working to the Arkle.

[Liam301287]

Manager to get some more 12s tonight on Garde La Victoire tonight. As to me 16s last week.

[DeeBee]

G Wylie confirms Shaneshill goes for this in his interview yesterday and said scoped dirty last time out. I backed him at 8/1 early doors but looks a decent e/w shout at 10/1.. with KV's absence this will by Rubys ride and should be in the frame.

[Istabraq]

Having had time to digest this market since KV's unfortunate withdrawal I'm struggling to see how Bristol De Mai stands so much shorter than Garde La Victoire.
NTD horse has certianly improved but he's been convincingly put in his place by the Hobbs horse twice, and on both occasions in receipt of weight (9lb and 11lb), and unless I've missed any alterations to the conditions of the race that allowance decreases to just 1lb.
I hate the fact GLV had his prep run at Ludlow which (courtesy of bitchy's circular last week) being a track in direct contract to Cheltenham is a negative but that concern is tempered by the fact GLV has multiple wins at Cheltenham.
Obviously he has an Arkle entry but he is backable at 34 on the machine for that race and just 10 for the JLT, suggests the decision has been made where he goes.

[mayo]

G Wylie confirms Shaneshill goes for this in his interview yesterday and said scoped dirty last time out. I backed him at 8/1 early doors but looks a decent e/w shout at 10/1.. with KV's absence this will by Rubys ride and should be in the frame.

I backed Shaneshill before the last race flop and glad to hear there are excuses. Also have GLV in many multis and happy with those two against Bristol De Mai.

Outlander is a bigger danger imo.

[Istabraq]

Taken some 12 (11/1) about Garde La Victoire.
I'm convinced this is his target and when that's confirmed his price will halve....

[stephensmith84]

I'm in agreement with those holding Shaneshill vouchers. I'm starting to think that a few of Willie's may have honest-to-God excuses, no least of which the bottomless ground.

Watching the Supreme again, it's a cracking run on good ground.

[KingSprinterSacre]

Taken some 12 (11/1) about Garde La Victoire.
I'm convinced this is his target and when that's confirmed his price will halve....

Hobbs said yesterday on ATR at the national weights that it will be difficult to beat douvan and are most likely racing for place money. Not a mention of jlt.

I'd rather go for a race I could win than go into a race with mentality that they are going for place money

[Istabraq]

OK thanks KSS, I hadn't seen/heard that.
Hobbs has done this before though, years ago we were put on Captain Chris for the JLT by someone in the yard only to see him win the Arkle !
It proved that connections keep their options open right up until the last minute as CC was declared for both races at the 5 day dec stage that year.