2016 Supreme Novices

[Ghandi]

I like Blue et Rouge a lot, seems Tombstone gets a fair mention in previews and around here and i can't see much between them on form

[mayo]

McManus will surely run something so between Winter Escape, Bleu et Rouge and Modus. They are all fairly weak on the machine though. Bleu et Rouge needs cut so mabe he will be kept in Ireland. Winter Escape better than the bare form yesterday ?

I think Min wins so looking in without market.

[Faugheen_Machine]

The vibes seem to be that Winter Escape doesn't run and will be saved for Aintree. It seems a sensible decision to me as I don't think a race like the supreme would suit the horse.

[Yeehaa]

Matt Tombs thinks its Bleu et rouge ( and it is wrong race)

Bleu Et Rouge (JP McManus) – Supreme

Bleu Et Rouge’s target is probably the least certain of the 4 – he could contest either the Supreme or the Neptune. The only reason I can see for running him in the Supreme is that he was too keen in the 2m Future Champions at Christmas and the faster pace of the Supreme might help. However, that keenness was probably down to inexperience and he settled better next time when stepped up to 2m2f in the Deloitte.

He looked to outstay Tombstone in the Deloitte. How much that was Bleu Et Rouge being a real stayer at the trip and how much was Tombstone not getting home on the ground – is up for debate. It’s early days to be having a strong view about the ideal trip for a horse like Bleu Et Rouge, who has had just 2 runs in Bumpers (in France) and 3 races over hurdles – but he doesn’t look like a 2 miler on the visuals.

If he were owned by anyone else, you’d imagine that he’d be running in the Neptune – but JP McManus owns red-hot favourite Yanworth. Unlike some of the other leading owners, McManus has historically been happy to run his best novices against each other – eg when My Tent Or Yours and Jezki took each other on in the 2013 Supreme when he had no Neptune runner. It’s therefore possible Bleu Et Rouge will take Yanworth on in the Neptune. However, the vibes are that he might go for the Supreme and I suspect he is more one that will come into his own stepped up in trip, (perhaps next season).

It may be that the talent Willie has means that he can run horses in a Festival race other than the one that suits best – and still win. There are limits even for Willie though and if these 4 turn up in the races I’ve outlined then I think they are likely to go off prices that would make them well worth taking on. By contrast, once NRNB is available for the remaining Festival races, I’ll be looking at backing some of them in what I think is the ‘right’ race.

http://www.cheltenhamtips.co.uk/2016/02/willie-mullins-horses-wrong-races/

[mayo]

Not a squeak about Bleu et Rouge from the Mullins visit tweeters.

Has the Deloitte winner ever had a lower profile ? Mullins previous three winners from 2012-2014 finished 113 in the Supreme

Finally found something ....

Bleu Et Rouge: "He can go in any of the three novices' hurdles. He has the speed to run in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle but I am not sure he has the jumping ability.

"He should go for the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle but the owner (J.P. McManus) has Yanworth in that. If Yanworth stays right, I'd imagine Bleu Et Rouge will run in one of the other races. He has enough stamina to go out in trip for the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle.

"I'm sure Barry Geraghty will want to ride him which is why he is likely to avoid Yanworth."

[TheRowebot]

Willie today stating that he doesn't think Min is quite as good as Douvan. Whilst the comment seems to portray an air of negativity, surely that's high praise, just falling short of potentially the best horse he has ever trained? He also said that he couldn't believe his own public praise for Douvan last year and was glad he backed it up on track. Is this now a case of Wille trying to suppress expectation of Min but deep down he knows he's a star?

[Old Vic]

Willie today stating that he doesn't think Min is quite as good as Douvan. Whilst the comment seems to portray an air of negativity, surely that's high praise, just falling short of potentially the best horse he has ever trained? He also said that he couldn't believe his own public praise for Douvan last year and was glad he backed it up on track. Is this now a case of Wille trying to suppress expectation of Min but deep down he knows he's a star?

Thats the right way to read it imo.

There seems to be a plan for the Gigginstown horses but no idea where Wylies or Bleu et Rouge run after todays comments.

[Mytentoryours1]

Going to be a cracking race to start the festival. Min and Altior look really good, and some potentially nice types at bigger odds as well.

Still sounded really positive about Min. The two horses he was being compared with or probably the two most talented going to the festival.

Anyone see Henderson's assistant call Altior "without doubt our best chance of a winner."

[Ballybeen]

Willie also said that this looks Yorkhill's target. Looks a proper competitive Supreme.

[Morning Glory]

Willie also said that this looks Yorkhill's target. Looks a proper competitive Supreme.

I have been backing Yorkhill for Neptune so hope not. Ruby is usually good at getting willie and owners to run the best horses where he can ride them. Will he be happy with Long Dog in Neptune ?

[stephensmith84]

Going to be a cracking race to start the festival. Min and Altior look really good, and some potentially nice types at bigger odds as well.

Still sounded really positive about Min. The two horses he was being compared with or probably the two most talented going to the festival.

Anyone see Henderson's assistant call Altior "without doubt our best chance of a winner."

I respect the Henderson yard, but when you've got the 2nd and 3rd favs in the race, and the trainer says he can't split them, they aren't both going to be top class.

What he wants is a real good bullet to fire at Min, which I don't think he has. L'ami Serge, Vaniteux, Josses Hill are all decent examples of this. I'm going to back a reverse tricast with Min, Yorkhill and Supasundae.

[mayo]

Tombstone

At the moment I'd say we're leaning towards the Supreme with him. He's been very good, just getting beaten in two Grade Ones. He was a bit unlucky the first day and then last time there was no excuse, he just got out-stayed by a better horse on the day. I think Cheltenham will suit him and I think better ground will suit him. He didn't settle at Leopardstown but he was much better in the hood and we'll leave that on him at Cheltenham. He's not a slow horse.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Betfair going 3/1 Min for the next 10 mins nrnb. £50 max per customer

[Istabraq]

Betfair going 3/1 Min for the next 10 mins nrnb. £50 max per customer

Just picking up tweets, more gutted about missing the 2/1 Thistlecrack !

[Faugheen_Machine]

I did Min and Yanworth.

Min will probably hit 3/1 on the morning of the race anyway. I'd be surprised if we could get 2/1 on Yanworth or Thistlecrack though.